C-c-c-c-cold!

Midday Wednesday

As of Noon, we're only at 27 degrees in Louisville.  Today's average LOW is 31.  We'll be lucky to reach that this afternoon.  Add in the brisk northwesterly winds and it feels more like January than late February.  But, the good news is that at least we'll get to see some snowflakes.  Overnight snow showers/flurries ranged from a dusting to 1.5 inches in Breckinridge County.  Since early morning, however, a line of snow showers has been dropping additional 1"+ snows from Orange County IN through Crawford Co to western Harrison Co., then across the river to Meade and Hardin Cos.  As of Noon, the snow showers had weakened a lot, but flurries have been popping up over much of southern IN and Kentucky.  So, little, if any, additional accumulation is expected.

Latest model runs, however, want to hang on to plenty of clouds tonight before southwesterly winds winds bring back more sunshine tomorrow.  Only a little warming tomorrow.

Next significant change comes Thursday night into Friday as a fairly strong Alberta moves along the U.S.-Canadian border.  Normally that wouldn't give us any more than a warming southwesterly wind and some clouds, but this time both the GFS and WRF generate an expanding area of moisture/clouds/precip across the midwest late tomorrow and into the Ohio Valley by early Friday.  There has been some concern about the precipitation onset being snow, then a rapid change to rain Friday morning.  Thickness criteria say "snow" but both models generate a strong fetch of southwesterly winds bringing in low-level warming - enough to melt any snow that gets near the surface.  So, after a cold day tomorrow - upper 30's seem likely, temperatures should steady for a few hours tomorrow evening, then rise overnight.  That would wipe out any significant chance for snow.  Unfortunately, it makes sense, too.

Cold front following the Alberta Clipper isn't shaping up to be very strong - not much upper support to cart a lot of cold air this far south.  So, we may actually see a "mild" weekend with high temperatures in the 50's.

Comments

[Debbie]

Tom,
I am very curious....??! What is YOUR opinion on this whole "major snowstorm" thing coming off the models around this time next week??! I know that given the range, models, etc etc...it's pretty much "too far out there" to even give a nod to, but given the fact that I "grew up" on your forecasts, which were always accurate, I've got to ASK?!- (no offense, by any means!?- My Mom used to tease me all the time, saying, "You & Tom Wills are KIN!?- I've NEVER seen anybody like SNOW as much as you two!!?" ( I took it as a compliment!?-You always were, and remain, my "Idol"?!- You got us through the April 3, 1974 tornado here in Nelson Co., as well as plenty of those late 70's snowstorms!-My Grandpa thought there wasn't anyone like you, either!:))

I would really appreciate any reply you have on this!? I am so "snow-starved", I even still get up to check on 'school closings'...even tho I am 45 and no kiddo's... YET?! (our FIRST is due June 3rd!!!)