Midday Thursday, April 9, 2009
We've had a long series of upper troughs digging into the western U.S. and then curving around toward the eastern U.S. Most recent one should be here tomorrow with a rainy day. Earlier, it looked like we'd see a lot of rain (1-2") in Louisville and higher totals over southern Indiana. Plus, the models were taking the weakening surface low north of the Ohio River. That would open the door to severe weather.
The 12Z runs this morning have made a big shift in keeping the upper low and the surface low south of (or right over) the Louisville area. If that verifies, it really changes things for us: 1). rain starts later (midnight or after) and ends up being about an inch less than previous expectations (good news for flood-prone southern Indiana), and 2). severe thunderstorm threat drops south (out of the Louisville area) although southern KY and TN could see strong to severe storms late tonight and/or late tomorrow.
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