11 A.M. Sunday, April 5, 2009
Conditions continue to look more and more like we'll be under the gun for severe storms later today (probably in Louisville area between 5 and 8 P.M.). Strong surface low will cross southern IL/IN this afternoon and evening. That puts all the "dynamics" in place for severe storms over southern IN and KY. Only missing ingredient currently is moisture and that seems to be racing northward along the Mississippi Valley and spreading eastward. In fact, thunderstorm initiation has occurred earlier than anticipated, so it looks as though enough moisture will arrive in time to be in play as the cold front moves across southern IN and KY late this afternoon and evening.
Assuming moisture does arrive, the scenario should play out about like this - several supercells should pop up over western KY and southwest IN early this afternoon. Would not be surprised if they produced some tornadoes. With time (and before it approaches the I-65 corridor), the system should evolve into more of a linear thunderstorm complex. Primary threat would then shift to hail and (especially) high winds.
However, there is a chance that some additional discrete supercells could still form out ahead of the primary thunderstorm line. If so, watch out! They could spin up some tornadoes.
Trying to read the Storm Prediction Center's mind...I'd imagine we'll go under a Tornado Watch this afternoon. However, for most of us the primary threat will not be from tornadoes. Rather, straight line wind gusts of 50-70 mph could be fairly common.
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