February 22, 2012
Severe numbers for Thursday
Updated Wednesday at 9:00 AM.... We have never had a year with every month in a severe risk. Last month we had the tornadoes and now Louisville is in the severe risk for Thursday.
The HPC surface map for 7PM tomorrow has a 994 low heading into the Ohio Valley. The GFS and NAM both have a 992 low further north than the HPC does which would bring the severe threat further north.
SPC says: SOME THREAT WILL EXIST FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH EARLY-MID EVENING.
NWS Louisville says: Though there will be enough shear for strong to severe storms, the amount of available instability is in question. The amount of cloudiness will play a significant role in how unstable we become.
NWS Paducah says: IF WE GET THE SFC HEATING EXPECTED /INTO THE 70S WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S/...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY FIRE JUST NW OF THE OHIO RIVER MID/LATE AFTERNOON...THEN HEAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KY EARLY IN THE EVENING. IF THE STORMS DO INDEED FIRE...LOW LVL HELICITY VALUES SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES...ESP IN DISCRETE CELLS AS THE LINE FORMS.
NWS Nashville says: HYDRODYNAMICS LOOKS RATHER STRONG TO ME WHILE THERMODYNAMICS REMAIN MARGINAL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THURSDAY ACROSS MID STATE. HOWEVER BELIEVE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN THOUGH THERMODYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT STRONG
February 21, 2012
4.0 quake on the New Madrid fault
There was a 4.0 magnitude earthquake at about 5 AM EST this morning in southeast Missouri just across the river from Columbus, Kentucky.
This quake was felt in 13 states and there was some minor damage near the epicenter. A magnitude 4 quake occurs along the New Madrid fault about once a year. This fault is famous because of the extreme quakes that hit in 1811 and 1812. The magnitudes ranged from 7.7 to 8.1.
The largest aftershock this afternoon has been 2.4
Here is some more info on the quake from KFVS in Cape Girardeau, MO....
The Center for Earthquake and Research Information in Memphis reports a 4.0 magnitude earthquake five miles NNW of East Prairie, Mo. at 3:58 a.m.
It was 3.1 miles deep. Felt reports on the USGS website report people in 13 states felt the quake.
The earthquake was also 12 miles ENE of Matthews and 13 miles SSE of Blodgett which is 36.850°N, 89.409°W.
Amy Vaughan, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Center in Golden, Colorado, says they located the earthquake around Sikeston and Charleston. She says they've had a large number of felt reports indicating it was widely felt regionally and even felt hundreds of kilometers away.
Vaughan says several people in Missouri, Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky and Tennessee reported being awakened by the quake that happened at 3:58 a.m. A few residents of North Carolina, Alabama, Indiana and Georgia also felt it.
Vaughan says it is considered a light earthquake with maybe some minor damage possible with things falling off walls and maybe some cracks. Viewers have reported cracks in walls and things fallings off walls. There have been no major reports of damage.
[See a slideshow of earthquake damage from southeast Missouri.]
Vaughan says earthquakes are more likely to be widely felt in parts of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains, usually over 10 times greater than in areas west of the Rockies.
She says smaller aftershocks are possible.
Vaughan says it's important to know what to do when an earthquake occurs. If you're outside, stay away from buildings and if you're inside get under something.
Shaun Bell with the Mississippi County Sheriff's Department says they felt the earthquake and received several phone calls with some people saying it sounded like a vehicle was dragged through their house.
East Prairie City Administrator Lonnie Thurmond says the shaking lasted about seven seconds. Vaughan says he's heard reports of cracks in sidewalks and walls, some broken windows, and minor household damage such as rattled shelves and things falling from cabinets.
Martha Knupp in Anniston says it sounded like a loud boom, then "stuff went to shaking."
"I was asleep," said Knupp. "I heard a loud boom, woke me up. Then the house was shaking. The bed was shaking. I heard stuff falling everywhere. I jumped up to run into my husband's bedroom, check on him and that's when I seen the mantle to the lamp laying in the floor."
She said she got up to find several of her things in the floor and some of the cracks in her walls from an earlier earthquake widened and lengthened. Viewers have also reported cracks in walls in Miner and a cracked floor in Blodgett.
"I was coming down the highway and everything and the road kind of jerked a little bit and everything. By the time I pulled over and everything, it stopped everything. Thought, well I better pull over and everything. Felt a little bit of rumble and everything," said one man.
"I was laying in bed watching TV and all of a sudden my bed it just goes up and down and up and down three times. And I started to get out, it went up about the time I started to get out," said one woman.
Cape Girardeau Police Sgt. Rick Schmidt says he's heard reports from several residents. However, he says it will be business a usual at the police station Tuesday.
Dozens of viewers report their dog, cat and horses acted strange just before the quake.
Dr. Brian Heuring of Delta Veterinary Clinic in Sikeston says this is normal for animals to act this way.
"All the reports I have seen they're never showing correlation between that," said Dr. Heuring. "So I don't know. Again we've got stories both ways of pets that sensed it and then bark ahead of time and then there's like my own that just slept through it."
Dr. Heuring says one theory is animals feel the Earth move and vibrate before humans and that they detect electrical changes in the air before an earthquake.
To learn more about the big quakes from 200 years ago....click HERE
Here are the numbers from the USGS
| Magnitude | 4.0 |
|---|---|
| Date-Time |
|
| Location | 36.850°N, 89.409°W |
| Depth | 5 km (3.1 miles) |
| Region | SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI |
| Distances | 16 km (9 miles) ESE of Sikeston, Missouri 27 km (16 miles) SW of Cairo, Illinois 197 km (122 miles) NNE of Memphis, Tennessee 310 km (192 miles) SE of JEFFERSON CITY, Missouri |
GFS has snow and severe storms coming up
Updated Tuesday 9:30 AM.....We are going into the time of the year for the battle of the seasons. I always called it March Madness in weather.
The GFS has some wild swings in the weather over the next couple of weeks which takes us into March.
The map on the left is for Friday evening. Much colder weather moves in for the start of the weekend.
Ahead of that system the SPC has a 5% risk for severe here for Thursday night. The SPC is calling for a significant outbreak of severe storms for areas from Mississippi to Georgia. The severe weather is likely to continue across the remainder of the southeast of Friday.
By Sunday, we are back into a southerly flow with rapid warming ahead of the next front which will bring chilly weather back for the early and middle of next week.
During the mid-week period next week, the GFS brings a snow system across the Ohio Valley.
The following weekend, March 4-5, another warmup happens ahead of the next front with thunderstorms and possible severe weather again. This will be followed by a day or 2 of cooler weather.
By mid-week of the following week, a sunny, warm pattern develops that should bring temperatures into the 70's. :)
The usual line is given here about don't follow these models to a specific type of weather on a specific day, but this kind of gives you the general trend setting up for the next couple of weeks.
Mardis Gras links
All is quiet in the French Quarter of New Orleans this morning. That will be changing rapidly on this last day of Mardi Gras...Fat Tuesday.
Here is the link for live streaming of the Bourbon Street cam....click HERE
It is before 8:00 in New Orleans and the crowds are already gathering for a day of parades.
Here is the parade cam....click HERE
Perfect weather in New Orleans today with partly sunny skies expected and a high in the lower 70's.
For more info on Mardi Gras....click HERE
For more about king cakes....click HERE
February 20, 2012
Colder in Hawaii than Louisville this winter
Updated Monday at 5:30 PM......
The highest two points on the island of Hawaii which is known as the Big Island are 13,796 feet on Mauna Kea and 13,680 feet on Mauna Loa. With elevations like this, you can have cold and snow up high while temperatures are in the 80's closer to sea level.
The lowest temperature in Louisville this winter has been 17 degrees.
Over the weekend the temperature on the weather station at the Mauna Kea Observatory dropped to 16 degrees.
This temperature occurred after 6 inches of snow fell on the mountain top. So not only has Hawaii seen a colder temperature than Louisville this winter, they also have had more snow than Louisville.
This web cam is from a snow covered Mauna Loa. You can see Mauna Kea in the distance with the snow on the higher elevations.
Mauna Loa is the world's largest volcano. The mountain is over 13,000 feet tall and extends down into the ocean floor. The summit is actually about 56,000 feet above its base. Mauna Loa has erupted 33 times since 1843. The most recent eruption was in 1984.
Back to Louisville..... We are getting to the time of late winter where it can be hard to have temperatures dip into the teens unless there is several inches of snow on the ground. If we don't get any snowstorms, we probably have seen our lowest temperature of the winter. There is a cold snap coming in this weekend. Right now the lowest temperature forecast is 28. There may be one more cold spell later next week before the southeast ridge begins to build. Once this happens after March 3, our chances of seeing 70 degrees begins to increase.
February 19, 2012
Jellico Mt. wrecks.....Richmond, VA heavy snow
Updated at 10:00 PM Sunday.... As the heavy snow moved across northeast Tennessee this afternoon, there were 8 wrecks along a 3 mile stretch on interstate 75 at Jellico Mountain just south of the Kentucky border.
One crash involved 18 vehicles, including a Greyhound bus, which led to a massive back-up on Interstate 75 in Campbell County.
The crash happened around 2 p.m. near mile marker 158, just south of Jellico.
8 tractor trailers, nine cars and one Greyhound bus were involved in the accident. Paramedics treated 56 people on the scene and transported five to the hospital via ambulance.
All northbound lanes were shut down after the crash, until TDOT crews could divert traffic onto ramps. causing a back-up for miles, but those lanes have since reopened.
There were several wrecks in the Nashville area this morning due to icy conditions.
This photo shows what it looked like in the Nashville area.
3 inches of snow has fallen at Richmond and Roanoke, Virginia with another 1 to 2 inches possible as the night goes on.
It is a very heavy, wet snow, sticking to everything.
The heaviest total in Kentucky was 6 inches in Leslie Co.
Eastern Kentucky snow reports
Updated at 4:00 PM Sunday..... several counties in the mountains of eastern Kentucky are reporting power lines down from the weight of the heavy snow. Also, there have been numerous wrecks in some areas.
The heaviest snow total so far is 4.5 inches in McCreary Co.
4 inches has fallen in Leslie and Letcher counties.
The view on the left is from Pikeville.
Earliest daffodils ever
Daffodils blooming on February 19. That has never happened. March flowers blooming a month early.
Looking back at the mild weather the last few months......
In November, there were 21 days with above normal temps and 9 with below.
In December, there were 23 days with above normal temps and 8 with below.
In January, there were 22 days with above normal temps and 9 with below.
So far in February, there have been 10 days with above normal temps and 8 with below.
2 winters ago Louisville had 40 days with at least a trace of snow.
Last winter Louisville had 45 days with at least a trace of snow.
SO far this winter there have been 10 days with at least a trace of snow.
Heavy snow for eastern Kentuckyy
Updated at 2:00 PM Sunday.....Heavy snow is falling over southeast Kentucky with several locations reporting 1/4 mile visibility.
Most areas are expecting 2-4 inches with 6-9 inches expected above 2,000 feet near the Virginia border.
This is all south of interstate 64.
February 18, 2012
Winter Storm WARNING for SE KY
Updated Saturday at 8:00 PM.... The advisory area is in purple and the pink area is the Winter Storm Warning. Some areas of southeast Kentucky may end up with 8 inches. In Louisville.... it's either no snow or some very light snow on Sunday.
Only the JMA is holding out for a storm in our area with it still saying 5 inches of snow for Louisville.
The HPC brings the slight risk for 4 inches of snow pretty close to Louisville. Even if there are amounts that heavy in the slight risk area, the northern edge of the snow looks to have a pretty sharp cutoff.
12Z NAM brings heavy snow just south of Louisville
Updated Saturday at 10:00 AM.....
Here are the precip totals for the last 3 runs of the NAM.
This is 00Z run from last evening showing everything to the south.
This is the 06Z run showing the movement back to the north.
This is the 12Z run, just in. The only difference with the 06Z run is the dark blue... .50" line is now up to Fort Knox. This is still a close call for Louisville.
It could end up with little or no snow for the northern suburbs and several inches for the southern suburbs. That has already happened once this winter.
1 inch of moisture for southeast Kentucky. Not all of that will be snow.
Overnight runs for the weekend snow
Updated 9:00 AM Saturday..... The 06Z NAM (left) has gone north again bringing .25" of moisture to Louisville. Some of this would be rain. As the storm system moves out of Mexico to a better data field we will find out this morning if there is any further shift to the north with the 12Z run.
The GFS doesn't show that shift with less than .10" of precip.
The GEM has shifted north about 30 miles in the last 12 hours bringing an an inch or so of snow to Louisville and heavier to the south.
The UKMET is pretty much keep this to the south.
The ECMWF has Louisville on the northern edge of the snow Sunday morning.
NOGAPS has the northern edge of the snow just south of Louisville.
The JMA is still the most aggressive for snow with 3 to 5 inches of snow for Seymour down to Louisville. This has been the odd model out that last several days. Either it will be a bust or score the biggest model win of the winter.
AccuWeather has shifted the coating to 3 inch totals to the south of Louisville and the 3-6 total into southeast Kentucky.
Here are the snow accumulation forecasts from the NWS......
Louisville: no accumulation
Lexington: 2-3"
Bowling Green: 2-3"
Richmond, KY: 3-5"
Taylorsville: up to 2 inches
Bardstown: 1-2"
Springfield: 2-3"
Danville, KY: 3-4"
Lebanon: 2-4"
Hodgenville: 2-3"
Leitchfield: 1-2"
Campbellsville: 3-4"
Somerset: 2-4"
Hazard: 2-6"
Southeast KY above 2,000 feet: 4-8"
Pikeville: 2-6"
Bridge update: The WAVE3 LIVE DRIVE was the first vehicle to cross the westbound portion of the Sherman Minton bridge last night when it reopened after being closed for 162 days.
February 17, 2012
Shermangeddon is coming to an end
BRIDGE OPENING....BRIDGE OPENING.... BRIDGE OPENING.... BRIDGE OPENING....
The concrete barriers are gone, the portable toilets have been hauled off. The bridge is getting ready to open tonight. There is a live band performing right now at in the parking lot of the Waffle House in New Albany at the bottom of the bridge.
A group of business owners is scheduled to walk across the bridge at 10:30 to celebrate the re-opening and the bridge will open shortly after.
We won't be seeing this sign anymore.
I was a bit unhappy about the latest snow missing us.
Also, I am working on the news Saturday evening and the last 2 times I worked on a Saturday, both times it took me an hour to get to work.
Now that the bridge is opening, the long waits are over.
Until the paving project on the Kennedy begins.
New NAM says no snow for Louisville
Updated Friday at 9:40 PM.... Last night at this time this is what the NAM looked like for the weekend storm. A half inch of moisture for Louisville with over an inch downstate. Some of it rain but a lot of it snow.
24 hours later the new NAM is on the right. Quite a shift to the south with nothing for Louisville. If this verifies, even the areas to our south under a Winter Storm WATCH will see that canceled. More updates on that tomorrow. The JMA is the only model holding on for a decent snow here.
The photos of the incredible snow and cold in Europe keep coming in. This was taken this week in Romania with the snow depth almost to the tops of the road signs.
Speaking of roads. The rumors continue that the Sherman Minton bridge will open by midnight. There has been a lot of activity on the bridge this evening. There has been no official word though.
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