John Belski's Weather Blog

Season snow totals update.... also, an update on the New Year's storm

After Friday night's snow here are the season snow totals around the region. At least Louisville is not in last place anymore.

KENTUCKY
Covington  7.1
Paducah  5.7
Lexington  3.3
Louisville  2.7
Jackson  2.7
Bowling Green  Trace

INDIANA
Bloomington  21.0
Indianapolis  14.2
Evansville   10.7
Fort Wayne  8.4
South Bend  6.0

OHIO
Columbus  13.2
Cleveland  13.1
Dayton  11.5
Cincinnati  7.1

OTHERS
Chicago  0.9
Memphis  0.9
St. Louis  0.7
Nashville  Trace

The next system is for Monday night. There are mixed signals as far as strength and how warm it may get with this system.

NWS Louisville says.... We plan on going with high PoPs Monday afternoon and evening across the forecast area. There are signals in the data that another frontogenetical band of precipitation may develop along and north of the Ohio River which could produce another round of significant snows. We plan on leaving the snow as the dominant precipitation type north of the river. In the northern part of Kentucky, will continue to mention a mix of rain/snow/freezing rain for now...but will try and refine the p-types as the event draws closer. In the south, pure rain still looks good from the previous forecast.

NWS Paducah....AS FAR AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE CONCERNED WITH THE APPROACHING STORM...CURRENT INDICATIONS SHOW AREAS MOST LIKELY TO GET APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROCKPORT INDIANA TO PERRYVILLE MISSOURI. AREAS SOUTH OF THAT LINE SHOULD SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.

NWS Indianapolis....GFS/SREF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN TO MIX IN. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT FAR OUT...SO JUST LEFT IT ALL AS SNOW FOR NOW. ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LOOK TO BE UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES.

AccuWeather has less than one inch of snow for Monday night.

The Weather Channel has a chance of snow showers for Monday night.

Snow totals around the area.... up to 4 inches in Louisville

Here are the totals from last night's snow.

Louisville  2.7 inches (official)
Lyndon 4.0
Anchorage 3.0
Middletown 3.0
Fairdale 2.6
Windy Hills 2.5
PRP 1.7
LaGrange 3.8
Shelbyville 2.7
Charlestown 3.8
Jeffersonville 2.5
Galena 4.8
New Albany 3.5
Sellersburg 3.5


















 Correction to NWS totals: Clark should be 2 to 4












64% of the U.S. had snow on the ground this morning.

11:30 PM winter storm update

Updated at 11:30 PM.... I have drawn a line over what I think will be the northern edge of the dry. There is still a chance this could fill in.
Areas north of the slot will stay in the moderate to heavy snow at times.

Look for some locations to top 5 inches and there could even be an isolated 7 or 8 inch total. In central Indiana, there could be an isolated 9 inch total.

The Facebook site Ohio Valley Weather Net has a live chat going....check it out....click  HERE

11:00 PM snow update

I have been watching the dry slot over western Kentucky. I am not sure how far north this will go.
Areas in northern Kentucky and southern Indiana that do not dry slot will get an additional 3 to 5 inches overnight. Areas where the dry slot moves through will have lower amounts.

The top snow totals so far.....
Mt Vernon, IL  6"
portions of Indianapolis  5"
Anderson, IN  5"
1 to 2 inches has fallen in the northern suburbs of Louisville

Dry slot over western Kentucky

Updated at 10:20 PM.... The Paducah radar is showing a dry slot over southwest Kentucky. This is building to the north.

I am not sure if this will make it up to Louisville. The models are not picking this up.

A burst of heavy snow has moved through the northern portions of the metro area with almost an inch in a half hour. Side streets are covered.

9:30 PM snow update

Quick Update.....Take a look at the 00Z NAM precip. totals on the right.

00Z NAM

In areas where it falls as all snow you are looking at 5 inches plus in the yellow and 6 inches or more in the light brown.

FirstHand Weather just posted this snow forecast of 5-9 inches for Louisville.

The NWS in Louisville just stated that they will keep Louisville in the 2-4.

The SPC just posted this map for snowfall rates of up to 1 inch an hour tonight.

Portions of Indianapolis have already surpassed their forecast totals with 3 inches of new snow.

I just checked the latest RAPID REFRESH and it says 5 inches for Louisville with 6-8 inches for the northern suburbs.

Winter Storm WARNING for Evansville

Updated at 7:55 PM..... The NWS in Paducah has issued a Winter Storm WARNING for southern Illinois and southwest Indiana.

This includes Evansville.

3-6 inches of snow will fall this evening in the warning area.

For Paducah and Owensboro they are still calling for up to 2 inches with some 3 and 4 inch amounts.

7:00 Winter Storm update

Here are the weather headlines at 7:00 PM.....

Heavy snow is falling over southeast Missouri. Up to an inch has fallen so far.

There have been some snow grains falling in Louisville with rain to the southeast.

Once the precip. starts falling heavier, temps aloft and at the surface will cool.

This statement from NESDIS is heavy on the meteorological side but it explains what will happen tonight.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...COMPACT UPPER LVL TROF LIFTING ENE ACROSS
NE OK /NW AR/SW MO WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY MOD-LOCALLY HVY SNOWFALL RATES
ACROSS PARTS OF AR/MO/IL/IN/KY AND OH OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HRS. PRECIP HAS
STARTED TO INCRS IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS SE MO/SRN IL OVER THE PAST
2-3 HRS WITH CLOUD TOP COOLING EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY AS WELL. EXPRMTL
MESOSCALE WIND ALGORITHM IS CURRENTLY IDENTIFYING THE AREA OF BEST UPPER
LVL DVG TO BE OVER S CENTRAL/SE MO AND SW CORRELATING WITH THE ENHANCING
PRECIP. SFC TEMPS ARE GNRLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30'S ACROSS NRN AR/MO/SRN
IL/SRN IN BUT HAVE SOME ROOM TO COOL THROUGH EVAPORATIVE AND NIGHTTIME
COOLING OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS TO TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW..WITH
GRADUAL EXPANSION OF SNOW SEWD INTO NRN/WRN KY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES E.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2345-0545Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...S/WV TROF MOVING ENE WILL UTILIZE MOISTURE ALREADY DRAWN
NWD INTO THE TN VLY BY THE PREVIOUS WAVE TO PRODUCE PRECIP ACROSS PARTS
OF AR/TN/MO/IL/IN/KY/OH. GRADUAL COOLING WILL KEEP OR CHANGE PRECIP
TO MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS SE MO/S IL/S IN DURING THE NEXT 3-6 HRS WITH EWD
MOVING FRNTL BNDRY ALSO COOLING SFC TEMPS FROM W-E. SNOWFALL RATES MAY
REACH AS HIGH AS 1"/HR IN DVLPG BANDS WITHIN THE DIFFLUENT ZONE OUT AHEAD
OF THE TROF AXIS. WITH MODEL FCSTS SHOWING BEST UVV'S  MOVING FROM SE
MO TO SRN IN/SW OH DURING THE NEXT 6 HRS..EXPECT THESE AREAS ARE WHERE
GREATEST CHC OF HVY SNOW RATES WILL OCCUR.

 

HPC upgrades Louisville to a moderate risk for 4 inches of snow

HPC 4" snow risk

Sorry about all of the updates but I wanted to pass along the new HPC heavy snow risk categories.
Louisville is now in a moderate risk for 4 inches of snow tonight.

HPC 8" snow risk

The HPC has portions of southern Indiana in a slight risk for 8 inches of snow.
This includes...
Paoli
Salem
Seymour
North Vernon
Madison
Scottsburg

The SPC says thundersnow is possible

Updated at 5:15 PM....The SPC says thundersnow is possible tonight. During the early and mid-evening, the heaviest snow will be to our west in the highlighted area moving here as the night goes on.

Thundersnow is lightning and thunder while it is snowing causing a very heavy snow rate for a short time.

Banding will develop with some areas getting over an inch an hour.

SPC says....
WHILE SFC TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE FREEZING WITH MOST STATIONS STILL REPORTING LIQUID PRECIP...THE COMBINED CONTRIBUTIONS OF DYNAMIC/EVAPORATIVE/NOCTURNAL COOLING AND MELTING EFFECTS WILL SUPPORT A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW BY 00Z...WITH LOCALIZED SNOW RATES OF 1-1.5 IN/HR IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. DUE TO THE QUICK PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...ANY ONE LOCATION IS UNLIKELY TO SEE MORE THAN 2-3 HOURS OF HEAVY SNOW.

Sleet is being reported in southern Kentucky. More updates later.....

 

The new NAM says 5 inches for Louisville... The NWS says at least 3" for Louisville

12Z NAM total precip

18Z NAM total precip.

Updated Friday at 5:00 PM..... The 18Z NAM has increased the precip. total for Louisville to over .50 inches which if it is all snow, it would be over 5 inches.

The 18Z also cools the air aloft faster so most if not all of the precip. will be frozen.

20Z Rapid Refresh

The Rapid Refresh model splits the heavier precip. areas to the SE and NW of Louisville.
Still, most of the precip. will fall as snow as it is also cooling things off faster by an hour or two which can make a big difference with this system. This model would still give Louisville over 3 inches of snow.

New updates from the NWS offices....

NWS Louisville has some concerns about a warm layer aloft....Recent ACARS soundings out of KSDF this afternoon also reveal a 3000ft thick layer of warm air centered around 850-800 hPa. The main and critical forecast issue is how far north will this low-level warm layer will get...as it will ultimately determine precipitation type and modulate accumulations. Current thinking is that that it should likely make northward progress to just north of the Ohio River this evening.
Given the current data, a swath of 3-5 inches with isolated amounts of 6+ inches is likely along and north of the Ohio River. A very pronounced gradient is likely to develop somewhere along the river.
A general 2-4 inch swath along and just south of the Ohio River which would include metro Louisville. This swath will likely edge eastward down the I-64 corridor. As mentioned earlier, this forecast is subject to change and snow amounts may need adjustment based on how far north the warm layer advances. Thus, we will continue to monitor observations this evening and adjust the forecast as required.

The 18Z and later models so far have shown that the cold air will build in faster and the moisture content will be higher. More updates this evening as to where the heaviest snow may go. In southeast Missouri, a mix of sleet and snow is falling.

AccuWeather has up to 3 inches for Louisville with locally higher amounts just northeast of Louisville up to Cincinnati.

current NWS snow forecasts......
Louisville  3-4
Lexington  2-3
Frankfort 3
E'town  2-3
Madison  4-5
Paoli  4-5
Bowling Green  up to 1
Evansville  3
Owensboro 1-3
Indianapolis  2
Bloomington  3-4
Seymour 4-5

 

Winter Storm WARNING for southern Indiana.... ADVISORY for Louisville

Winter Storm WARNING in pink on the map....
From the NWS.....
* TIMING: A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BEGIN OVER THE WARNING AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ON SATURDAY...BUT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

* ACCUMULATIONS: TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE VERY LIKELY OVER THE WARNING AREA. MUCH OF THIS ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT...AND SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 OR MORE INCHES MAY OCCUR AND THE BEST CHANCES FOR THOSE AMOUNTS WOULD GENERALLY BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM JASPER INDIANA TO MADISON INDIANA.

Winter Weather ADVISORY for Louisville......
* TIMING: LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE ADVISORY AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BY LATE EVENING IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. FOR AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 65...THE RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION WILL OCCUR VERY LATE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
* ACCUMULATIONS: TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN AREAS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. AREAS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN KENTUCKY AND BLUEGRASS PARKWAYS WILL LIKELY SEE ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

The NWS in Indianapolis has issued an ADVISORY for Bedford, Seymour and North Vernon for 3-5 inches.

Quick snow update

Updated Friday at 2:30 PM..... All of the new forecasts will be coming out shortly. I will have a more detailed post later this afternoon.
Checking the latest models....
The NAM gives us a solid 2-4 inches of snow.
The RAP has a warm thickness but the 850 temps go cold enough for snow. Several inches possible.
The GFS has at least a couple inches for Louisville.
The Euro looks cold enough for snow.

I am hearing rumblings it may be too warm.....I do not agree. It may start as rain and then go to snow by late evening especially from Louisville on north.

Paducah sent this out about an hour ago.....
FELT COMFORTABLE RIDING WITH THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...FOR ROUGHLY 2 TO 4 INCHES IN A CORRIDOR SIMILAR TO OUR LAST SYSTEM...PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF THE OHIO...DROPPING OFF SOUTH OF THERE. SOME COUNTIES IN THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE...ESPECIALLY SAY PIKE...SPENCER AND NEARBY COUNTIES...MAY BE PUSHING THE 4 INCH CRITERIA FOR A WINTER STORM WARNING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE NOTION ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF THIS EVENT WERE GOING TO BE ALL SNOW...WITH SURFACE TEMPS 1-3 DEGREES COLDER...WE WOULD HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WARNING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHWEST IN. JUST NOT QUITE THERE YET.

Slight risk for heavy snow.... moderate risk in some areas

HPC 4" snow risk

Updated Friday at 8:30 AM... The new snow risk map from the HPC has the heaviest snow band right up the Ohio River.
There is a moderate risk for 4 inches of snow from Owensboro to just west of Louisville. This is all for tonight.

The Weather Channel says 2-4 inches for Louisville.

Here are the forecasts for snow from the NWS.....
Louisville 1-3
Lexington 2-3
E'town up to 1
Brandenburg 1-3
Shepherdsville 1
New Albany 3
Jeffersonville 2-3
Carrollton 1-3
Bedford, KY 3
Lagrange 2-3
New Castle 1-3
Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison  3
Bedford, IN, Seymour 2-3
North Vernon 3-4
Bloomington 1-2
Indianapolis 1-2
Cincinnati 2-4

There are 2 separate systems. The northern one is producing 1-5 inch amounts from South Dakota to Michigan.

On the southern system you can see the snow over Oklahoma. That will reach here this evening.

The Winter Weather ADVISORY goes as ar south as E'town and Bardstown. To the north, the Indianapolis NWS does not issue an advisory unless 4 inches of snow is expected. The 3 inch forecast for Seymour and the 3-4 inch forecast for Jennings Co. does not qualify for an advisory. This makes no sense to me. I have been in Indy before with an inch or two of snow and there have been hundreds of wrecks. 3 inches of snow is hazardous and there should be an advisory.

So there is no advisory for North Vernon with a forecast of 3-4 inches but in southern Minnesota there is an advisory for 3 to 4 inches of snow. Indy NWS needs to examine their advisory and warning criteria.

The new NAM says possible snowstorm for Louisville :)

00Z NAM 12 hr. precip Fri night

Updated Thursday at 9:30.... The new run of the NAM is coming in and the snowstorm chances are increasing. We don't get too many heavy snows in Louisville so I always call 4 inches a snowstorm and there is a chance we could get this much.
Earlier today, the NAM had the least snow of the models and now it is having the heaviest amount along the Ohio River.

The map shows over .50 precip. from 7 PM tomorrow to 7 AM on Saturday. In Louisville this will start off as rain but go to snow by mid or late evening. So if the NAM verifies, we are looking at 3-4 inches of snow tomorrow night.

BRINE ALERT......BRINE ALERT.....

HPC 4 INCH SNOW RISK

The HPC 4 inch snow risk issued late this afternoon had a low risk for Louisville and a moderate risk from Madison to Cincinnati.

HPC 8" snow risk

On the right is the 8 inch snow risk which is low from Madison to Cincinnati.

These maps will be updated in the morning and the 4 inch snow risk may be expanded as the system appears to be getting stronger.

The HPC also has a 60-70% chance for at least one inch of snow in Louisville.