12Z NAM brings heavy snow just south of Louisville

Updated Saturday at 10:00 AM.....
Here are the precip totals for the last 3 runs of the NAM.

This is 00Z run from last evening showing everything to the south.





This is the 06Z run showing the movement back to the north.







This is the 12Z run, just in. The only difference with the 06Z run is the dark blue... .50" line is now up to Fort Knox. This is still a close call for Louisville.
It could end up with little or no snow for the northern suburbs and several inches for the southern suburbs. That has already happened once this winter.

1 inch of moisture for southeast Kentucky. Not all of that will be snow.

 

Comments

[Dave]

Thanks for the update John! We would like to see this storm move NORTH, we need one good snow event before the winter ends.Thanks again for the update, I sill check your blog at least once a day! Always a fan!

[Terry Barnes]

John these slight changes in the model runs are enough to make a meterologist pull his/her hair out trying to come up with an accurate forecast for snow. LOL From your experience in weather forecasting, which seems to be more difficult to forecast....spring severe weather such as tornado outbreaks or winter weather such as the current guessing that is occuring with this winter storm?

Terry Barnes

from JB..... Terry, winter is much worse, slight shifts in the track can mean a major difference in snow. With severe, a day ahead, you are not pinpointing where exactly the storms will hit.....just kind of a broadbrush.

[Brian]

Thanks John--combining a little bittercasting over our lack of big snow over the last 2 winters with realcasting, I'm inclined to say I'll believe it when I see it. :)