Updated Wednesday at 5:00 PM.... While today's severe weather continues across southeast Kentucky into Tennessee, we are now looking ahead to another severe weather outbreak on Friday.
The SPC has the following cities in a 30% risk area for Friday which is an upper level slight risk.....
Louisville
Lexington
Cincinnati
Bowling Green
Nashville
SPC says: FIRST FEW HOURS OF CONVECTIVE REGIME MAY INVOLVE FAST-MOVING/SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS AND ACCORDINGLY ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL. EXTENT TO WHICH THIS REGIME WILL LINK WITH EARLIER/OH VALLEY CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN...AS ARE IMPORTANT MODE CONSIDERATIONS SUCH AS PACE OF LINEAR EVOLUTION.
Early Friday morning a warm front will move through with a limited severe potential with this first front.
By early Friday evening, a cold front will be approaching and this will trigger more widespread thunderstorm activity.
NWS Louisville says: Secondary and more widespread severe weather outbreak looks increasingly likely Friday afternoon and evening as a very strong surface cold front pushes in from the west. The latest deterministic and ensemble wind profiles suggest a combination of strong speed and directional shear with proximity soundings showing large/curved hodographs. Bulk shear is quite impressive and supportive of strong convection capable of all severe weather modes.
Given the combination of shear profiles and instability forecast by the NAM-WRF and SREF probabilistic forecasts...a rather large regional severe outbreak seems likely. Initial mode of convection could generally be discrete cells capable of all modes of severe weather including damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes. It does appear that the directional shear will become more speed based shear which probably will result in convection becoming quasi-linear in nature as the night goes on.
NWS Paducah says: UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SIMILAR SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS FOR FRIDAY...TO WHAT WE HAD IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS CAN NOT BE OVER STATED AND SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY...GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING.
NWS Nashville: SEVERE WX IS POSSIBLE AGAIN...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE. IT LOOKS LIKE CLUSTERS OR DISCREET CELLS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL FUSE INTO A QLCS OVER THE MID STATE BY EVENING...THEN THE QLCS WILL RACE OFF TO OUR EAST LATE EVENING.
NWS Indianapolis: NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER AND MORE WOUND UP WITH THE LOW...AND IF THIS VERIFIES...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH ANY AND ALL THREATS POSSIBLE...AS SREF POSTPROCESSED GUIDANCE INDICATES SIGNIFICANT LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. OVERALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THE SEVERE THREAT BEARS CLOSE SCRUTINY AS THE DAY APPROACHES.
The next update for the Friday severe weather numbers will be issued by the SPC early Thursday morning.