As the earlier post covered, we will be dealing with a stalled front this weekend that will feature a low pressure that will track along it over the 4th of July holiday. The front, however, will likely remain snaked across our area after Monday for at least a couple of days as indicated from WPC below:
The question then turns to whether or not we see another dip in the jet work in from the north just like the past few weeks have featured, or do we then see a strong ridge build in with a stretch of 90s and high humidity?
The PNA is certainly indicating a turn toward neutral/negative later next week. Negative usually translates to a warm stretch for our area.
The latest ensembles of the longer range models hint at that ridge building more east/north but not exactly a full-on typical Bermuda High takeover that we usually experience in the core of summer.
Here is the EURO. These are the 500 heights. 591 would put us into the low 90s. 594 would pus us into the mid 90s or higher.
CANADIAN not as aggressive.
GFS, same story.
I think the pattern will do what it has been doing for some time. Repeat itself.
I can see the ridge building in enough for a stretch of 90s, but I am suspect of how long that will be maintained before another trough slides in.
Perhaps more impacting is the moisture level. GFS forecast dewpoints in the 70s would translate to heat indicies around 100 deg or higher.
Plenty of time to see how this will play out. We need to see how the upcoming weekend hashes out first :)