No video or graphics today :(
Having system file issues that should get resolved soon. My apologies!!
Main focus is the short-term with our front draped over the area. Repeated showers are following the front in a west to east fashion so far today. Very little activity south of the front.
The front should hover along the Ohio River/I-64 for a few more hours then retreat north as a warm front in response to a low pressure developing to our west. The rain chance today will be along this front. And currently thinking is the front will track north to a Jasper to North Vernon line by this afternoon. In addition to showers, thunderstorms will be possible as well. Areas to the south...mainly dry with perhaps a pop up downpour or two.
This means a sharp temperature gradient as well. 60s north where the rain is. 80s south.
Louisville looks to be in the 80-85 degree zone. The record high, by the way, is 87 today.
The front should remain focus north of the Ohio River. There is still some question as to whether or not it will track as far north as I-70 or not. Even some data keeps it on a Crawford to Jefferson Co IN line. So still a decent range in location with quite the difference in rain impacts.
The low level jet is really going to crank up tonight from northern Arkansas into central/southern Indiana. That looks to be the main driver for t-storms and even some severe weather warnings. Just now much of our Indiana counties are included into remains unclear...but certainly worth watching.
If the front does not much move at all later today and tonight, we will need to watch for the training effect of the rain/thunderstorms for some high rainfall totals in excess of 2 inches.
Much of Kentucky, by the way, looks dry and quiet and ...warm. The exception would be the I-64 corridor where we will have to keep small rain chances in tact.
This is when our weather looks most active. As the low pressure moves east, it will drag the cold front west to east across the region. The morning will feature rain showers with areas east of 65 more likely to be dry with decent warming well into the 70s. That will then set the stage for t-storms to develop once we move into the midday/afternoon. Based on the current speed forecast of the front, this would place I-65 and points east in the zone for a line of thunderstorms. Some could be strong.
Once the front passes your location, expect a steady drop in temps into the 50s with gusty northwest winds. In addition to that, light rain/drizzle will linger.
The cool blast will take place west to east from morning to afternoon.
By midday, we should have a decent 20 degree temperature difference from one end of our viewing area to the other.
It looks chilly. Sunshine will gradually win out Friday but the cool NW flow will keep temps in the 50s for many locations. Louisville may hit 60.
It looks chilly Friday night into the 40s with perhaps a few upper 30s. The wind still looks elevated enough that frost doesn't look concerning. But if you live in an area sheltered from the wind, patchy frost is possible I suppose.
A clipper will dive in from Illinois to Ohio Saturday. Some rain is possible with that, but that looks to miss us. An increase in cloud cover is possible up the 71 corridor.
The clipper will however keep us cool with not much of a change in our highs from Friday.
The winds shift more to the southeast. This will allow for a good 10-12 degree jump in our highs with temps around 70 or a bit higher.
Warmer. Well into the 70s. Perhaps 80 by mid week.
Monitoring the trends for a system to drop in next Thursday. There are still many questions how this setup will evolve. But the system does have the potential to be a decent storm system. There remains the risk for the upper low attached to it to drop in and park itself over us for either Halloween Weekend or Halloween itself.
I will keep you posted on this as we get more data...but as the moment, a rain chance is in the forecast for the weekend with cool temps.
I will return next Wednesday.