Here are the items of interest with this post:
1) Rain chances Monday
2) Rain risk Tuesday
3) Heat Wed-Fri
4) Potential stalling cold front next weekend
5) First named Tropical System?
There will be an impulse riding along a warm front overnight tonight into Monday afternoon. The path looks to take the highest rain risk across southern IN. But it may certainly clip northern KY as well. I am keeping the rain chance at 30% right now until this cluster of storms actually develops...then Christie can decide in the morning whether to raise the coverage risk or not. KY certainly has a lesser chance than IN at this point. Here is the HI RES NAM for early afternoon tomorrow:
The warm front will start to push north even more...but there will be storms across IL early in the day.
The NAM weakens the storms as they lose support once they approach us in the afternoon.
I have in a 10% right risk right now in case the showers last further east than expected, but right now...chances are good they will fade out.
Ridge of high pressure really takes over. Depending on the cloud deck each afternoon, the risk to hit 90 degrees is certainly there. If we do, that will be our first 90° temp of the year. Either way, it will feel more like summer during this period.
A cold front will sag down Saturday/Sunday. There signs it may takes its sweet time pushing south. So scattered storm chances enter the picture Saturday in a small fashion, but pick up Sunday and Monday when the front is over the region.
Signs have been there for some time that high pressure in the tropics will allow for tropical development near FL. The GFS still sees this threat the first week of June
It likely will react to a front our in our region and head more out to sea than anything.
But with these setups...you never know. I don't see any impact on our weather from this, but if you have vacation plans along the SE coast the first 10 days of June---I would monitor the trends just in case.