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Showers are moving through this morning but severe weather is looking more and more likely this afternoon, especially just south of I-64. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe weather for our southern viewing area where damaging winds, very large hail, and even a few tornadoes could occur. Below you'll find the tornado, hail, and wind outlooks from the same forecast package that the SPC released just after 9am. The hatched area on the hail outlook signifies where very large hail may fall... possibly up to baseball size.
This setup is a forecasting challenge. A warm front and the parent low pressure will be moving through this evening, with the warm front being the main concern since it will serve as a focus for severe weather as it stalls out somewhere in our area. Pinpointing that location has been really tough. Last night's 0z model runs indicated with some uniformity that the front would stall out just south of the Louisville Metro area. This morning's short-range model runs (HRRR pictured right) take the front up to I-64. I've spoken with NWS meteorologists this morning about this and the concern is that the lack of any sort of stronger rain/thunder activity may favor this northward jog. Folks north of the warm front in Southern Indiana will be largely immune to the severe weather and see much cooler temperatures in the 50s this afternoon.
Areas right along this warm front will have the most favorable low-level shear for tornado development. Areas south of the front won't see quite the tornado threat but more so a very large hail threat due to incredible levels of instability (see right image from WeatherBell) and cooler air aloft. Hail sizes could reach up to baseball size with this setup. Winds of 65-75 mph can't be ruled out with these storms as well.
After the morning rain is out of hear by early afternoon we'll see a break in the action and breaks in the clouds as well. This will serve to enhance instability for thunderstorm development later on. By 4-5pm we'll see supercell storms begin to break out on radar along the warm front. I'd say we'll see those and then a cluster of strong to severe storms move through during the 6-10pm timeframe for folks along I-65. This all shuts down around midnight or so and calmer weather follows for the rest of next week. Check out the video blog below for more discussion.