So far so goode. Lots of sunshine to kick the day off. Latest analysis still aims at areas west of I-65 most at risk for a t-storms this afternoon. Areas to the east just look too dry aloft for one...and the other issue is no trigger that I can identify. So this means a hot day for us.
T-storms are still expected with the front on Wednesday. I don't see see changes there. I still see support for some decent .25-.50" totals (some t-storms may produce more) and some may not even see a drop of rain. And if you need it, I hope you get it the next 36 hours before we are in a long stretch of dry weather!
You can read my previous post below for my early morning thoughts I had.
The video is an update to that along with the Earliest Alert Outlook:
Good morning :)
I will likely issue 2 blog posts (when I can) each day. One early in the morning with an update mid-morning.
For this update, I just was looking at the setup later today.
It does appear the northern flow will allow for slightly lower moisture levels in our area. This does not mean cooler weather ...in fact we could even beat our 93 in Louisville yesterday.
It does mean, however, that our risk for thunderstorms will be reduced a bit, but not to zero levels.
Latest SPC analysis downs the DLCAPE (downdraft wind threat) mainly west of I-65. That fits the deeper moisture profile. So I plan to keep rain chances in today at around 20% with it likely more 10% east of I-65.
The front does push in tomorrow evening. I do see some chances to get decent heating so I am likely going to raise the high up to 90 before clouds/thunderstorms knock that down.
Severe risk is low but not zero.
Latest SREF model does show some wind shear of about 25 to perhaps 30kts tomorrow PM. My magic number for severe wind potential is about 40kts. So it is below that threshold but elevated enough that a storm or two could reach strong wind potential. Remember, these are just models...so the reality can be off a bit.
Once it passes by...temps do look pleasant. Low to mid 80s by Thursday/Friday.
But the bigger measurement of this change coming is the dewpoint. It drops into the 50s by late week! That will make it feel fantastic. :)
Notice the winds on the SREF also pick up on Thursday. Breezy/cooler day.
EURO just came in with highs in the low/mid 80s for Saturday as well.
The tropics remain active. It appears the depression in the Gulf will make tropical storm status very soon. It is still forecast to cross FL then move off the coast of SC where the Gulf Stream waters will likely allow for a punch upward in strength...but off the coast.
I will update some longer term thoughts later this morning with the Earliest Alert Outlook. This will include the overnight model hints that the Gulf tropical system may turn around later in time and came back toward the United States. Geez...what a pattern.
See you starting at 430am!