SHORT TERM- This afternoon-Tuesday
The models are struggling with the storm coverage so far today. Isolated storms continue at this hour...mainly south of the WK/BG Parkways. We cannot rule isolated development more to the north later. With the U/L game...we will be watching the trends carefully.
Right now the plan for the game:
Now- 5pm- For the tailgaters--- humid/mostly cloudy. upper 80s. Brief shower possible.
5pm-9pm- Humid. Isolated storm possible. mid 80s
9pm-11pm- Muggy. Scattered thunderstorms. near 80.
SPC at one point had the SLIGHT RISK all the way into southern Indiana for later today/tonight. They have since pulled back on that idea.
The main reason is the amount of debris clouds in the "heating zone" of this system. This can limit the storm coverage that was initially expected.
That is important as we were expecting those storms to fire in that zone...and head toward our area near sunrise. Now---that is much more in debate.
Nevertheless...the short-range models are still hinting at overnight activity moving in to parts of the area toward morning:
But--it should be noted that if the main storm zone tonight stays in MO and southern IL....that could leave us more open to heating on Tuesday. If that were to be the case---we could then face a more afternoon storm threat. NAM is suggesting this as well:
SPC has placed areas east of I 65 in KY in the SLIGHT RISK zone for severe storms Tuesday afternoon.
OVERALL THOUGHTS: This is a situation in that the overnight will drive tomorrow's weather certainly. If we get morning storms/clouds late tonight/early Tuesday---then our chance for afternoon storms will be limited to eastern KY. If we miss out on the late night/early Tuesday activity...then we need to prepare for some strong storms for all of our counties on Tuesday. Tough call to make this early. We will keep an eye on the trends this afternoon and adjust accordingly. Just make sure to stay close to the latest updates. Morning storms/heavy rain would play havoc on the morning construction woes in our area.
After we solve this cold front/storm issue---we then prepare for more summer heat and isolated afternoon downpours. The ridge of heat...is back starting Wednesday. It should stick around until Saturday.
A stronger front will then push through Saturday with showers/storms. The front will also allow for a dip in the jet stream over the Ohio Valley Sunday. That could mean a good 24-36 hours of lower humidity and cooler weather :)
But enjoy it...the summer heat ridge will build right back in just days after.
No signs of long-lasting cooling heading our way.