Weather Blog

The Week Ahead

Here are the items of interest with this post:

1) Rain chances Monday
2) Rain risk Tuesday
3) Heat Wed-Fri
4) Potential stalling cold front next weekend
5) First named Tropical System?

MONDAY
There will be an impulse riding along a warm front overnight tonight into Monday afternoon.  The path looks to take the highest rain risk across southern IN.  But it may certainly clip northern KY as well.  I am keeping the rain chance at 30% right now until this cluster of storms actually develops...then Christie can decide in the morning whether to raise the coverage risk or not.  KY certainly has a lesser chance than IN at this point.  Here is the HI RES NAM for early afternoon tomorrow:

TUESDAY
The warm front will start to push north even more...but there will be storms across IL early in the day.

The NAM weakens the storms as they lose support once they approach us in the afternoon.

I have in a 10% right risk right now in case the showers last further east than expected, but right now...chances are good they will fade out.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY
Ridge of high pressure really takes over.  Depending on the cloud deck each afternoon, the risk to hit 90 degrees is certainly there.  If we do, that will be our first 90° temp of the year.  Either way, it will feel more like summer during this period.

WEEKEND FRONT
A cold front will sag down Saturday/Sunday.  There signs it may takes its sweet time pushing south.  So scattered storm chances enter the picture Saturday in a small fashion, but pick up Sunday and Monday when the front is over the region.

TROPICS
Signs have been there for some time that high pressure in the tropics will allow for tropical development near FL.  The GFS still sees this threat the first week of June

It likely will react to a front our in our region and head more out to sea than anything.

But with these setups...you never know.  I don't see any impact on our weather from this, but if you have vacation plans along the SE coast the first 10 days of June---I would monitor the trends just in case.

(5/26) Memorial Day, then the Heat is On!

We saw a few showers around this morning but overall it's not terrible out there. The clouds kept us fairly mild overnight and we'll be making it into the low to mid 70's for highs this afternoon. The few showers we had around the region this morning have pretty much dissipated so now we're just dealing with the cloudy skies and the possibility of a pop up shower or two as we head through the day.

 

 

Memorial Day Update

The forecast for Memorial Day is still on track. We're still holding on to the potential for a few showers and thunderstorms as we move through the day on Monday but they'll be brief if one of these moves over your cookout or outdoor event. It's looking a touch warmer now for the afternoon as well, with temperatures getting up to around 80 degrees. While it won't the prettiest-looking Memorial Day with all the clouds hanging around, I think we can all agree not having a washout during the day is a good thing.

 

 

Summer Heat Later This Week

Once the warm front causing the shower and storm chances for Memorial Day moves out of the region we'll begin a stretch of exceptionally warm and muggy weather here in Kentuckiana. A ridge of high pressure building over the eastern half of the nation will provide southerly winds, bringing up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. With plenty of sunshine next week we'll easily make it into the upper 80's, with 90 possible as we head toward the end of the workweek. It's going to feel sticky and humid out there with the moisture in place, so be ready for it! The Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day temperature outlook demonstrates well how we'll have above-normal temperatures as we round out the month of May. Stay cool!

 

 

Ryan Hoke

   

(5/25) Tracking Memorial Day Storm Chances

First of all, thank you so much for all the kind words and well wishes about my debut on WAVE 3 News Sunrise this morning. This has been a day that I've looking forward to since I was a kid weather geek and it's been nothing but fantastic. I'll be on weekend Sunrise from now on as Brian shifts gears to our evening shows. Be sure to tune in on weekend mornings... I've got some tricks up my sleeve you'll want to see!

Storms Avoiding Us Today...

Dry air. That's been the key to keeping us from getting any rainfall in Kentuckiana today but our luck may be running out. You'll see on the right that the dew points just above the surface layer are bone dry right now. While that air will remain fairly dry through the balance of the day we will be increasing moisture slowly.

 

 

 

You can see that the dry air is eating away at the rainfall from the batch of storms over the Midwest as it drifts eastward. This means we'll stay rain-free in Kentuckiana for most of the day but as we descend into the late afternoon and evening I think we'll moisten up the air enough that some showers from this system will begin reaching into the area. That means we'll have a chance of showers in the morning as well. I'll have the live radar for you tomorrow morning on WAVE 3 News starting at 5am to keep you informed as you're heading out the door.

 

 

Storm Chances Sunday and Monday

Rain chances on Sunday and Monday will be best to our north since a series of disturbances will be passing through from west to east up that way. Brian and I were looking at some of the early morning runs of the computer models today and were becoming a bit concerned about storms on Sunday. Models at that point were suggesting that a line of storms in Indiana could dive down into Kentuckiana on Sunday evening and hand us a chance of strong winds. The good news is that the latest model runs have backed off on that idea a bit and are less intense with the rain and storm chances that we'll have. Tomorrow's chance will exist most of the day since we'll have activity in the morning that may stick around until the afternoon. But, this won't be an all-day rain for anybody. If you're outside you may have to duck indoors for a few minutes... that's about it.

 

Memorial Day's shower and storm chance comes in the afternoon. Again, this won't be an all-day rain and our best chance for this will be to our north. With that said, we will have to watch for the potential for a few storms to dive down from Indiana in the data that we'll be looking at over the next couple days to fine tune everything. The good news in all of this is that the threat of severe weather is very low and most of us shouldn't be too terribly inconvenienced by these showers and storms over the long weekend. We're still looking to clear things out and up the heat and humidity as we head through next week.

 

Ryan Hoke

   

(5/24) Dodging Memorial Day Showers, Then Warming Up

How about those cooler temperatures out there this morning? We got down to 50 degrees here in Louisville just before 7am but we're now steadily climbing up to our high of 70 for this afternoon. High pressure behind yesterday's front is providing us with stable weather and mostly clear skies for the day here in Kentuckiana. Tomorrow should be about the same story with highs a couple degrees higher today.

 

 

Memorial Day Weekend

As this high pressure moves eastward it will help to drive a warm front through our area as we head through the day on Sunday. This will transition us from the cool airmass we have over us now to one that's warmer and more characteristic for this time of year.

 

 

 

 

 

The combination of this warm front and a few disturbances in the flow aloft moving through will lead to shower and storm chances as we head through the day on Sunday, as well as on Monday and Tuesday. These chances, as we've been saying since yesterday, won't be the type that should cause you to cancel any of your Memorial Day weekend plans. Instead, you'll just have to have a plan to move indoors for a few minutes or put on the rain gear if one of these scattered showers or storms moves over you. Long story short, your trip to the Belvedere for Abbey Road on the River or cookout at home won't be impacted by an all-day rain. Whew!

 

 

Heat Next Week

So, what next once we're done with the showers early next week? Heat. Yes, the hot and humid kind. The jet stream will retreat to our north next week and allow us to enter into a summer-like pattern with southerly winds feeding us moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. While it will take some time to build in this heat next week, I do see potential for us to shoot for 90 degrees as we're starting next weekend. Below is a graph from multiple forecast models that explains our increase in temperature well as we go throughout next week. Just 27 days until the first day of summer!

 

Ryan Hoke

   

(5/23) Interactive Map of the Moore, OK Tornado Path

Monday's devastating EF-5 tornado left a scar on the landscape and families in Moore, Oklahoma. Below is an interactive Google Crisis Map that contains a satellite image of the damage path along with survey points, photos, and details from the National Weather Service. This map helps in understaning just how large this tornado was and how many were affected. You can help with tornado recovery efforts by donating to the American Red Cross or Salvation Army today.

 

Ryan Hoke

   

(5/23) Memorial Day Weekend Preview

A cold front moving through Kentuckiana today will make for a cooler afternoon with a chance of showers. Not everyone is going to see the rain as showers will be scattered. We're looking at highs today in the lower 70's with a breezy west wind. Not too shabby, eh? The highs in the lower 70's with clearing skies will stick around for your Friday and Saturday as high pressure moves in behind today's cold front. So, part one of the Memorial Day weekend looks pretty uneventful!

 

 

A disturbance in the mid-level flow at 500 mb (about 18,000 feet) will move through to our north on Sunday into Monday, triggering a small chance of scattered showers and storms. Much like today's shower chance, this won't be an all-day rain for both Sunday and Monday. Not everyone will see the rain either. High temperatures will be getting back into the lower 80's. So whether you're going to Abbey Road on the River, the Kentucky Reggae Festival, or just hosting your own Memorial Day cookout in your backyard, don't cancel your plans due to the weather! Just be ready to endure a brief shower or two while you're outdoors on Sunday into Monday. Temperatures and humidity will be on the increase as we head into the rest of next week.

 

 

Ryan Hoke

   

CoolTALK! Wednesday Edition

We will keep you updatd on air and social media with the short-term storms in the region.  Overall...it doesn't look too bad out there for us.

Looking ahead...2 big events for our region.

1) Cool Down

2) Heating Up

THE COOL DOWN
That will arrive with a secondary front tomorrow afternoon.  Mainly just showers with this front.  Cloudy otherwise...and cool. Highs only in the low to mid 70s.

The cool weather will then usher in with at least 2...maybe 3 nights in the mid to upper 40s for the region.  Sunshine will help balance the cool air mass Friday and Saturday...but the northerly winds will be a tough battle.  Overall, highs will get close to 70, but some areas may not make it above 65!

Sunday there will be a warm front that will start to live north.  There is disagreement on the speed of this front. That will impact any storm potential.  The longer it takes to push north, the more risk for a storm to ride the front down from the NW flow.  GFS suggest that is possible Sunday.

Memorial Day looks like the warm front will start to push north...and may be far enough to keep the storm flow north as well.  But again, I caution that a slower movement of the front will bring a storm chance.

HEATING UP
Once this warm front clears the region, get ready for a nice warming trend.

 

The EURO really shows the surge of warmth over the country as the storm track shifts more into Canada.  Highs likely will reach the 90s for the first time this year.

Usually when we see large eastern high pressures like this, the tropics react.  And that will be something to watch by the first week of June.  The flow likely would send any systme northward.

Latest on Storm Setup

So far so good...just isolated severe storms in the region today..mainly southern counties.

We will see a break...but we will not be completely in the clear from the threat for severe storms until Thursday.

SPC Outlook Tonight (bigger threat well south/west of our area)

There is some sun breaking back out across west KY.  Watch that to see how it affects new development in AR/MO at this hour.

The flow ahead of those storms is north..but the upper level winds are more east/northeast. That should allow for a slow progression eastward.

Latest NAM HI RES does show the storms trying to move in near 11pm tonight.

But..it fades them near sunrise. Just like we saw this morning.

That is possible---but I think we need to nowcast this event more than put too much onto models.  We will keep an eye on the activity near Paducah this evening.

 

WEDNESDAY

SPC Outlook -- risk has been expanded to include much of the area

Storms possible at any point of the day...damaging winds/large hail the main threats.

There is a small tornado threat with this setup the next 48 hours...but it would be isolated and likely weak/brief tornadoes.  But tornadoes are NOT the major type of event with this system in our area.  Large hail and straight-line winds are more of a concern.

THURSDAY
The main temperature drop front moves in.  Cloudy skies likely with showers in the afternoon.  Temps may actually fall after the front passes in the afternoon.

HIGHS This weekend may struggle to get into the 70s.
LOWS likely will dip into the upper 40s!

There are still signs of MCS (complex of storms) activity riding a warm front near Memorial Day or that Tuesday.  We will watch that carefully.

Amazing Footage from OK

No reporters. No voices at all.
Just the sounds of a funnel cloud...that grows into a monster tornado.

This shows how quickly things can develop. 

Note the sound. And even the hail that falls.   2nd video posted below too.  Thanks to Chuck!

 

 

Severe Storm Risk

We have been heartbroken with the recent reports of tornadoes in TX and OK.  Here are the fatal tornadoes reported just in the last 7 days:

Granbury, TX - Wednesday - EF4 - 6 fatalities
Shawnee, OK - Sunday - EF4 - at least 1 fatality
Moore, OK-Monday (yesterday)- EF4/EF5 (TBA)- 24+ fatalities

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There is still a threat of tornadoes today... mainly in East Texas and a portion of Arkansas.

We have a slight risk of severe storms in our area.  The main threat is damaging wind (15% chance), then large hail (5% chance).  We have a very minimal tornado threat (2% chance). 

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Here are your chances of storms throughout the day: