2 main rain events to track in the short-term. Then another front next week that leads to some uncertainty.
First, the rain issues.
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT: Warm front surges north with rain. It should really kick in this evening with thunder possible. No severe weather expected. Temperatures should climb slowly overnight into the upper 50s to perhaps 60. 1-2" possible depending on any t-storm action.
FRIDAY: Looks mainly dry. With warm air flowing into the area, we cannot rule out some pockets of drizzle. At the moment, it appears mid 60s are likely with clouds. If we pick up some sun breaks, 70 can be reached.
We remain in the warm/south flow. There is a bit of a CAP so coverage of any thunderstorms looks limited but we can't rule it out completely. Otherwise, record warmth still looks in jeopardy.
The track of the main low is key here. Overall model trends are for this to be a big event for the I-20/I-10 corridors. We just will need to watch for how close it impacts WAVE Country. There will be heavy rain concerns for whoever is closer to the N/NW side of it.
Low should be mainly east. Rain chances will likely get lowered as we get closer to this day.
Watching a front next Wednesday/Thursday. Likely a bump back to 60° with some rain that may end as a bit of snow, but the depth of cold air is iffy and slow to flow in...so it looks doubtful.
The video will focus on the above as well as the potential for a low to develop at the base of the front and track through the region. The models haven't latched on to that idea yet, but I still see it as a possibility given the pattern. No, that is now "wishcasting" lol :)