Weather Blog

StormTALK! (tiny bit of snow talk) Wednesday Edition

First "StormTALK" of the season today.  I will break this down more down below with the latest data we have on this developing storm.

I did want to piggy back on the stats that Kevin posted last night about low-snow winters.  I know many of you have been asking about this. 

I decided to do some digging into the month of March in Kentuckiana.

Normally in March, Louisville sees about 3.9" of snow.  I laugh when I type that as we never seem to have a "normal" month so I think the term "average of the extremes" is a better way to say it :)

Here is a look at the past 5 March's in Louisville which includes the year and total snowfall for the month.

2007   Trace   Last report of snow: March 4th      Highlights: Mid 80s recorded by late month
2008    10.6"   Last report of snow: March 23rd   Highlights: Large temperatures swings. 70s to snow

2009   Trace   Last report of snow: March 1st       Highlights: Several days in the 60s/70s
2010   Trace   Last report of snow: March 26th    Highlights: Fairly quiet month
2011   3/10"   Last report of snow:  March 30th   Highlights: Few surges into the 80s

The one thing that stood out in the data above when I looked it over was that when we saw large temperatures swings from one week to another, snow was recorded.  When we gradually warmed up...snow was very much unlikely.

Obviously, odds are in our favor that this month would feature at least a trace.  We have not had a snow-less March in at least the past 5 years.  But a trace isn't anything to be excited about either.

The most snow we ever had on the ground at any one time in March was 3/23/68 with 11" on the ground.

Here are the top 10 snowiest March's

Top Snowiest March's
22.9"  1960
14.0"  1896
13.5"  1996
12.7"  1968
12.1"  1887
10.8"  1947
10.7"  1970
10.6"  2008
10.0"  1975
 9.4"  1978

We have had flurries reported as late at May 20th...back in 1898.

Latest time we saw frozen precip in modern times...was Derby Day in 1989, sleet fell.

So just some fun stats I thought I would share as some of you have asked about it. 

I do see some large temperature swings over the next couple of weeks.  Does that mean snow could still fall?  Who knows.  I do know our winter forecasts this year have been a bust.  No way around that one.

Now let's focus on the storm threat.  I will say we could see some spotty showers tonight or rumbles of thunder, but the low dewpoints will keep things calm tonight.  The main issue is Thursday late afternoon/night.

Here is the latest outlook from SPC

 

And the % risk for severe... which is at 15%.  If there is an upgrade to 30%, that likely will be south.

 

 

We will need the wind energy aloft, decent dewpoints and instability to develop severe thunderstorms.

The first one looks pretty easy to figure out.

Here are the winds just above us tomorrow afternoon:  notice the highest fields just to our south.

GFS                                                 NAM

                

Dewpoints today are very low, so we have a huge climb to get us into the 50s tomorrow afternoon to have enough moisture for storms to build on.  Here are the forecast dewpoints tomorrow:

GFS                                                  NAM
                

 Instability is a  combination of the moisture and sunshine over the region tomorrow.  Will we be sunny or cloudy?  That question is always a tough one to answer prior to the event.  I think you all know that sunshine with a front approaching and moisture/warmth in place in February is never a good thing.  So that is why the SLIGHT RISK was prompted. 

Here are the CAPES (one factor used for instability) for Thursday afternoon. 

GFS                                                 NAM

                

GFS is about 250 to 300....NAM higher at about 750.  Which for late FEB is pretty high.

So I think this one will come down to our dewpoints and sky cover.  If we can get dewpoints into the 50s with a partly sunny skies---this risk can be realized.  The closer the dewpoints get to 60 degrees...the higher that threat will climb.  But that may be a huge challenge with this system.

There is no doubt that the best chance for higher dewpoints/sunshine will be to the south of KY.

In fact, the latest EHI (used for tornadoes) is pretty high to our south. That will be the main spot for tornadoes.

Timing looks to be late afternoon into mid evening.  Storms likely will fire just east of I 65 or right on top of us. 

That means we will have to watch the radar/satellite/dewpoint trends throughout the day and we will keep you posted.  Hopefully nothing too intense will develop. 

 As far as snow, there is a chance for some flurries/snow showers Friday afternoon/night.  GFS/EURO still hint at this pretty good for falling temps Friday into the 30s by afternoon.  Likely staying in the 30s Saturday with sunshine determining if we will reach the 40s or not.  Which is still possible.

Here is the GFS showing the snow showers/flurries Friday afternoon:

Warm ground temps and the light snow rate will melt the snow as touches the ground. No issues expected from this at this time.

Looking ahead, another warm up.  Another strong low in fact.  GFS paints a 996mb low just to our NW a week from today.  That would set the stage AGAIN for a strong/severe thunderstorm threat.

It should be noted the NOGAPS/EURO have this strong low to our south and says snowstorm for KY.  But given the indicies, I think the track north of us seems more likely right now.

Overall, March looks busy with many surprises ahead.

 

 

Warm Temperatures- Severe Threat Thursday

These temperatures are going to be so nice today and tomorrow, but there is a bit of a price to pay for them once the cold front arrives.  But until then, enjoy temperatures over 10 degrees above normal today and 20 degrees above normal tomorrow afternoon.  Then the cold front moves through.

We will have a slight risk of severe storms tomorrow late afternoon and evening.  The main window of opportunity for the stronger storms will be from 5pm-9pm.  The main threat with these storms is damaging winds.

But until the storms get here... soak up these warm temperatures!

(1/21) Low Snow Winters & Storms

FOLLOW WAVE 3 WEATHER
WAVE Weather Team Facebook | Twitter
Kevin Harned Facebook | Twitter
Christie Dutton Facebook
Brian Goode Facebook
Andy Weingarten Facebook
Lauren Jones Facebook

WAVE 3 WEATHER BLOGS
WAVE 3 Weather
John Belski's Blog

LACK OF SNOW?
We can't call it a No Snow Winter, but it's close... Let's call it a Low Snow Winter.
At this point we're 40 days from winding down the snow season (October - March).
Currently we're ranked at 14 for the least snowy winter on record in Lousiville with 3.5 inches of snow.
With only 40 days remaining in the 'seasonal' snowfall timeframe we're likely not going to add much more.
Time is working against us. 
Thanks to Angie Lese at the National Weather Service for helping with the data.

Oct. 1 - Mar. 31
Rank  Value  Ending Date
  1     0.9    3/31/1989
  2     1.0    3/31/1919
  3     1.1    3/31/1923
  4     1.4    3/31/1941
  5     1.5    3/31/1950
  6     1.6    3/31/1932
  7     2.0    3/31/1889
  8     2.2    3/31/1938
  9     2.4    3/31/1922
10     2.5    3/31/1992
11     2.9    3/31/1981
12     3.4    3/31/2007,  3/31/1901
14     3.5    3/31/2012 (40 more days)
15     3.6    3/31/1920
16     4.0    3/31/1995
17     4.1    3/31/1976,  3/31/1890
19     4.7    3/31/1944
20     4.8    3/31/1957

PEAK WINDS
Winds were gusty today... up to 36 MPH in Louisville with higher gusts in the 40s outside of the metro.
We'll see brisk winds once again tomorrow, but not as strong as Tuesday!

STORM CHANCES
Severe storms should remain south of Louisville during the overnight hours Thursday into Friday.
Instability will be lacking and our chances for severe weather will be slim.
However, we shouldn't ignore the fact that we could have some strong wind gusts along the front.
We'll keep an eye on this and update in later forecasts.



STORM PREDICTION CENTER 
Moisture and instability will be more limited with northward extend into the Ohio Valley with MUCAPE at or above 500 J/kg likely.  Forcing within frontal zone will promote a low topped line of convection embedded within strong vertical shear during the afternoon and evening.  Despite the limited instability some threat will exist for isolated damaging wind.  Low severe probabilities have been introduced... but are may need to be included in a slight risk in later outlooks.

DATES OF INTEREST
February 21st - Fat Tuesday
February 22nd - Ash Wednesday

March is known as Kite Month & Umbrella Month
March 1st - Meteorological Spring Begins
March 11th - Daylight Savings Time Begins (spring forward one hour)
March 14th - Pi Day (3.14 = pi)
March 17th - St. Patrick's Day
March 20th - Astronomical Spring Begins

WIND ADVISORY and warmer temps

The WIND ADVISORY is in effect until 4pm this afternoon.  We could have wind gusts up to 40mph.  So far this morning, the fastest wind gust I've seen has been 31mph.  These winds are picking up in front of a cold front that is bringing us some rain (mainly the rain we've already seen this morning).  The winds should be the fastest around noon-2pm, then slowly dying down after that time. 

The air behind this cold front moving through today isn't cold enough to drop our temperatures, in fact, they will continue to warm up through Thursday!  On Thursday, another cold front moves through and this one will drop temperatures!

As this cold front progresses over WAVE Country, we may have some thunderstorms on Thursday night.  Right now, the southern portion of KY is included in a slight risk of severe storms during that time.

Temperatures will cool on Friday and Saturday, and we could see a few flurries on Saturday morning but no accumulation... of course.

Take a look at this site showing the last year in tornadoes: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tornado-video-2011/61732

(2/20) Windy Tuesday

FOLLOW WAVE 3 WEATHER
WAVE Weather Team Facebook | Twitter
Kevin Harned Facebook | Twitter
Christie Dutton Facebook
Brian Goode Facebook
Andy Weingarten Facebook
Lauren Jones Facebook

WAVE 3 WEATHER BLOGS
WAVE 3 Weather
John Belski's Blog

WIND
Check out some of the winds to our west... we're in for a windy Tuesday.  Low level jet of 50-60 kts will mix down and create wind gusts as high as 30 to 40 mph in places.  The pressure gradient will tighten as well and winds will be gusty through the day. 


RAIN
The rain chance is secondary to the winds... there will only be light precipitation expected as it moves through.  The best chance would be during the early morning hours.  A two to three hour window of opportunity exists to see the rain.  The best timing on this (at this time) appears to be between 6:00 & 9:00 in the morning.  The convection will diminish to just showers by the time it reaches us.

MILD TEMPERATURES
Temperatures will remain mild with highs in the mid 50s on Tuesday.  And the mercury keeps rising.  The average high for this time of the year would typically be in the upper 40s.  We'll be close to 60 on Wednesday and I wouldn't be surprised to see a 70 degree reading on Thursday. 



STORM CHANCES
With a powerful cold front on the way later this week and highs expected to be so warm... the question of severe weather chances always comes up.  At this point the latest models hint to a storm chance late Thursday into Friday.  However, the timing for severe weather isn't favorable (instability will be compromised) - but the conditions exists that a line of thunderstorms may form with gusty winds.  It's a bit too early to speculate on severe chances with any certainty at this point... Right now the best chance for severe storms will be across the Gulf Coast states.  Stay tuned for updates!

00Z NAM
The evening run of the NAM actually delays development of any late week precipitation until the front passes.

Warming Trend w/ Rain Tues.

Yesterday's temperatures were below normal for this time of year which ended a four day streak of temperatures above normal for this time of year.  But don't worry, we will make a run at above normal temps today... and they keep going up from there topping out on Thursday in the mid 60s. 

 

Rain is likely tomorrow.  I don't expect it to be an all day kind of rain, but rather a shower or two that may cross your way during the morning and/or afternoon.  This is a cold front bringing this rain, but the air behind the cold front is quite mild from the west, so I don't expect a drop in temperatures from this system.  You will likely notice the winds picking up a bit tonight and tomorrow out ahead of this front.

Not much rain expected with this system tomorrow.  Maybe a tenth of an inch or so.

We may see a little more rain moving through with the second cold front later this week.  It will bring rain chances on Thursday and especially Friday, but it still doesn't look like a torrential rain or anything like that.  There is a chance that the rain with this second cold front could end with a little snow overnight Friday into Saturday morning.  It's still a little ways away, so stay tuned...

 

COLD NIGHT - WARMER WEATHER RETURNS

Good evening, everyone! What a near miss of a snow storm today. Brian discussed what happened with the storm in his previous blog post if you're interested in reading up on it. The track was too far South to support heavy snow for us, but boy was it close. 4-6" of snow was the norm for parts of Eastern KY with isolated higher totals just to the East of that. We shift our focus from the near miss snow storm today so a warm up in the extended forecast. But, first we have to get past a winter-like overnight forecast.

 

OVERNIGHT: Clouds continue to diminish from Northwest to Southeast as the cloud deck follows the snow storm Eastward. As sky conditions begin to improve temperatures will drop quickly and settle into the low to mid 20s this evening. Winds will remain light out of the North. If you like the cold get out an enjoy tonight and into the early morning hours tomorrow because we'll flip the switch and usher in warmer air...as early as tomorrow.

TOMORROW: Presidents Day will start off cold but as winds out of the East and eventually out of the South by tomorrow afternoon/evening. With a shift in winds, temperatures will warm into the upper 40s/low 50s. Expect plenty of sunshine tomorrow to kick off the week because this too will become short lived.

LOOKING AHEAD...Temperatures will continue their upward trend as we head into mid week but it will come at a cost. Rain makes a return by Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the West. We'll dry it out for part of the day Wednesday as temps warm to near 60 degrees. Rain redevelops Thursday and lingers through the early part of the weekend.

SOMETHING TO WATCH...Models are hinting at a drop in temps Friday and into Saturday. This could result in a wintry mix on Friday with a transition to all snow by Saturday morning. This is days away and only worth a mention right now. The bigger story will be the above average temperatures and soggy conditions mid week. While I don't expect a complete wash any of the next seven days beware the umbrella will be needed from time to time.

I'll have your latest forecast at 11pm on WAVE 3 news and again tomorrow at 11am on WAVE 3 midday. Have a great evening! 

Not A Happy Camper TALK! Sunday Edition

Frustrated.  That sums up this last event.  We knew we had two options with this...south track or north.  We had to battle the models versus what typically happens with a southern low.  Most lows on the GFS model trend north in time.  NAM usually does good with smaller scale features.  So we knew the quirks of the models...which made trusting them a challenge.  So what happened?  Lack of complete info was the main issue.  Having this system over Mexico for its developing stage made it tough to gather data on how well it was developing.  We launched balloons into the storm as soon as it crossed into TX.  Suddenly, the models aligned well enough for us to make adjustments with more confidence.  Unfortunately, that didn't happen until yesterday afternoon.  And still are adjusting things to the south due to the dry air/radar trends.  Only our southern most counties are at risk for any light accumulations. Nothing for the Metro certainly.

We appreciate your patience with last one. I know just about every meteorologist in this area and beyond (meteorologist friends in other states were pulling their hair out too) struggled with this one.

This has been an unreal winter to get snow in this region.

I know we will be picked on/bashed and/or accused of "hype".  That is part of the job to hear feedback.  But we will always inform you anytime a storm has "potential" to impact the area.  That IS our job.  Sometimes giving out too much info on social media/blogs can frustrate you further---but I personally like to share the data so you can see the behind the scenes of forecasting and the huge challenges we face.  That has always been that case since day one of TV weather...but you are "seeing" and "hearing" more of it than ever before thanks to technology.

I will get off my rant/soapbox, but I do appreciate those of you that understand the challenges and stick with us to get the latest information.  Feel free to email Kevin or myself , bgoode@wave3.com, if you have questions/concerns. 

Moving on...I see 3 distinct changes to our weather pattern.  A warm up, a cold blast, and a significant warm up.

I will break this post down based on those 3.

WARM UP:
Warm front will surge north tomorrow.  That will allows the south wind to return and the 50 degree temps.  I would not rule out a 60 degree temp with this warm up through mid week.  Highest rain chance looks to be on Tuesday.

Here is the GFS: *snow well north

 

NAM:

COLD BLAST: 
This one is still fuzzy on details as it could be a 2 step process to cool down. One Thursday night...another Friday night.

Thursday night could set the stage for rain to snow showers by Friday.

Here is the GFS:

 

EURO:

 

Another surge of cold air expected Friday night into Saturday.  That may come with more snow showers or flurries.

GFS:

 

And looks at the cold air the GFS shows...EURO does as well:

 

It does not look like a major snow, but light snows.  Plenty of time to monitor that part of the forecast.

SIGNIFICANT WARM UP:
The flipping of the indicies points to a nice warm up near March 1st.  I see the potential for highs reaching 60-70 during this time. 

GFS sees the start of it in the southern Plains

 

Obviously, we would have to watch for thunderstorms with that warm surge, but too early to know when/where or if that would happen yet. 

 After that warm-up, the trend to get it cold again becomes a huge challenge.  GFS tries to hint at another cold blast by the 2nd week of March, but I am betting more on the warm than cold right now. I plan to hide from the models for a few days, so I will post again Wednesday.

...still believing... BOTS!!!

(2/18) Snow Update

FOLLOW WAVE 3 WEATHER
WAVE Weather Team Facebook | Twitter
Kevin Harned Facebook | Twitter
Christie Dutton Facebook
Brian Goode Facebook
Andy Weingarten Facebook
Lauren Jones Facebook

WAVE 3 WEATHER BLOGS
WAVE 3 Weather
John Belski's Blog

CURRENT THINKING
You'll see that the current snowfall map hasn't changed since last night.  Our forecast is based on the computer guidance that we look at... with the input of what we know from studying meteorology and living in this area.  It's also helpful to know what biases the models may exhibit.  I think the NAM, which was late to the game in the first place is a little too far north and too slow with the solution that is projected in the 12Z run below.  The GFS has been the most consistant model with this storm.  Typical GFS, it may be just a bit too far south with the soulution is has in projected in the 12Z run below.  I think as the 00Z runs come in tonight you will see a happy medium between the two that looks similar to the forecast below.


12Z NAM





12Z GFS

Snow TALK! Sunday Threat Update

The fun with the models continues. 

Between communication problems with the network being able to communicate with the models and the idea that the center of the storm is in a foreign country, having the ability to nail down a track has been a challenge.

Here are the factors at play that will affect snow amounts and what you will see in your backyard.

- timing
- pavement temps/ground temps
- snowfall rate
- storm track

All four of those will impact our forecast.

Some of you have asked "why the big deal for a dusting to maybe 4?"  Well the big deal is the *potential* energy that this storm has.  The potential is there for this storm to produce more than 4" of snow in a given spot.  With that risk, we plan to update often and try to keep up with the changes.  Keep in mind, there is still a chance that we will have to lower to totals down quite a bit as well and even remove snow chances all together for some areas.  We literally are facing two very different scenarios right now that make forecasting this storm a pain.  We appreciate your patience with us as we try to become more specific as time goes on.

So let's break down the issues above.

TIMING:
We have 2 things to time:  northern branch feature (cold air) and southern branch feature (the storm)
The trend overnight was to slow the storm down to mostly a Sunday event.  NAM/GFS seem to be aiming toward sunrise for our southern counties with the northern snow shield arriving by late morning/midday near the I 64 region.  It will then shift back south/east as the storm pulls away but it will be a slow process with snow showers/flurries possibly lingering into the early evening hours. 

Regardless of the southern branch feature, the northern branch seems to be on schedule to push into the region early Sunday.  Obviously, the longer the storm slows...the more cold air that would be in place across KY when it arrives.  That could affect totals.

GROUND TEMPS:
Here is a sample of some of the latest pavement temps around the region:

Obviously, they are warm.  The ground/pavement is slow to respond to the air above dropping.  With forecast temps in the low to mid 30s during the snow Sunday, pavement temps may very well average 36-42 for the event.  In other words, melting snow on contact.  Grassy areas have a cooler factor to them so the snow could stick there along with objects above ground like cars/trees/roofs/porches/decks.   Yes, the warm ground temps will lead to some melting so that too has to be considered in snow amounts.

SNOW RATE:
This is the part that can counteract the above issue.  If the snow can become heavy enough (3/4" to 1" per hour), it can overcome those road/ground temps once the initial layer is put down.  This is a wet snow so the snow flakes stick to each other quickly if they can get piled up quick enough.  The most likely areas to see that type of rate look to be along and south of the BG/WK parkways at this time.  In those areas, the snow would accumulate on the roads...but since temps will likely be above freezing---it would be a slushy mess.  Further north in the Metro---snow rates look light so that even furthers the idea of just wet roads and light accumulations for grassy areas.   The snow rates will be crucial on snow amounts.

STORM TRACK:
Obviously, this is the big one.  We don't have to worry about any of the above if there is no snow to talk about :)  As I already mentioned, the models are still having challenges on the track of this one.  Here is where we think the center is right now:

Once it crosses into Texas we will then be able to launch weather balloons into this system so that data can be fed into the NAM/GFS.  Right now, the models are basically just "guessing" where the center is...and if that guess is off 50-70 miles, then the track is off by that much.  And that much of a difference changes the outlook for our viewing area big time.  See the problem?

That data will be fed into the models by midday/afternoon.  I am not sure if we will get the chance to see much reaction from this from the 12z models or even 18z...but more likely 00z tonight.  At that point, we should start to see less waffling and the models really nailing down a path. 

This has been unusual being so close to the event and have low confidence as normally lows move in from the SW US or TX or Gulf of Mexico.  But this one tracked way down into Mexico. 

I plan to avoid posting the models with this update as it will just confuse you all. 

I will post our latest snowmap however so you at least can see the thinking as it stands right now.

 

 

I will provide model updates on my FACEBOOK PAGE and of course we will be on air this evening with more info and HOPFULLY a better idea of what will happen.

By the way, for those of you wondering about the longer range...here is what I am seeing right now:
- Warm next week/rainy at times
- Colder next weekend with rain or snow
- Warmer the next week with thunderstorm risk
- Colder the last week of the month.

More on those issues AFTER this storm is over :)

BOTS!!!