Several items to discuss with this post today.
Let's start with the front moving through tonight.
Overall, the main rain with this will be to our north heading into Ohio. Our northern counties in IN stand the best chance to get the heavier totals as the wave passes through. For the rest of us to the south---just spotty showers/sprinkles the way it appears with timing mainly for the nighttime hours.
We look to start off Tuesday with a cloud deck. If we clear out faster than shown---we could see fog. But at the moment, it appears the cloud deck will be present enough to prevent that.
The short-range models take their time is breaking the clouds up tomorrow. But they do at least show sunshine by the lunch period into the afternoon. You guys know how that works around here---clouds can be stubborn. Nevertheless, the cloudy start and north winds will lead to a cool day. Many will get stuck in the 60s.
COOL SHOTS AHEAD:
We have several waves of cool air that will pass through the region. The first comes with the front tonight and settles in for Tuesday/Wednesday. Notice that deep blue to the north...that is where it is cold aloft to SNOW!
We then WARM up by Friday/Saturday with some 80s (lower).
The next cool wave moves in next Monday/Tuesday. Yikes!! 850mb temps forecast to drop below 0 in spots. Which in the winter ---would indicate snow. But no need to get excited. We will have a) clear skies b) lower layers of atomosphere still too warm even if we had precip. Either way, it looks like some 30s are possible next Tuesday morning if this holds!!!
Even as far out as the first day of October----the GFS hints at more of the same with a cool shot in our area. There is no reason to not believe that right now.
Other than tonight's showers----our next shot at rain looks to be Sunday with a cold front.
GFS times the front out to give us some slight instability:
With modest winds aloft.
EURO however...is slower with the front/rain...and arrives Sunday night.
The slower EURO would mean just a band of rain. GFS would mean thunderstorms with some gusty winds. Hopefully we can nail that timing down better once we get closer.
So interesting pattern we are in for sure. And if these cool shots keep coming---my forecast for warmer in the east will be in jeopardy.