A busy few days ahead for us as we track showers/storms moving through the area. While we are not expecting what those to the west have witnessed (or will witness this evening) we certainly could have watches/warnings in our area as this system passes through.
I will start off in reverse with this post...getting right to the overall summary of what is expected. Then I will post some graphics with details. The reason? The details vary quite a bit...but I at least wanted to share them.
This afternoon/evening: Hazy/Humid/Very Warm. How close we get to the record of 91 is still in question. Either way, humidity will make it feel like it out there. There is still a risk for an isolated strong/severe storm that could pop later today. They would be brief/slow moving...but could pack a punch for whoever falls under it. We will keep an eye on the radar trends.
Overnight: a line of storms will make a run for us from the west. Latest data still strongly suggests that the line will weaken as it approaches I 65. In fact, some of the models only indicate clouds surviving this far east...fading the rain out fast. I would make sure to tune into Kevin tonight at 11pm for an update ...especially for those of you say from Jasper to Paoli.
Tuesday morning through midday: overall---looks pretty quiet. There still may be a risk for those showers mentioned above...but this looks to be the lowest rain chance part of the day.
Tuesday afternoon: We become quite unstable. This is where the NAM/GFS do vary. NAM suggest a setup that could support spotty afternoon development. Especially across southern IN and west of I 65 in KY. GFS delays any impact from storms until sunset or later. This is a case of how much sunshine we pick up during the morning/midday. If it is sunny out...I would not rule out afternoon storms popping. There is quite a bit of energy at play...all we need is at trigger. So we will be watching tomorrow afternoon very closely.
Overnight Tuesday/early Wednesday: This could be an active period. Showers/storms rolling through. However, instability will be lower. That may help keep the intensity in check. There is some decent wind energy passing overhead at this time---so severe threat is certainly possible.
Wednesday afternoon: This is a transition day in which the best wind energy heads more into OH. We may see clouds limiting our heating/instability quite a bit on this day. While some gusty storms are possible...there are more players on the field to help keep the severe coverage lower during this period.
Thursday afternoon: the main cold front finally pushes in from the north. If we get any sun, some stronger storms may be possible on the KY side of the Ohio River in the early afternoon. This is a narrow window of potential however as dry air will quickly overtake the area by afternoon and evening.
So there you have it. That is a best guess right now on how things look to evolve. But as always when it comes to severe storms in our area....small changes in the ingredients and change the outcome. Our main threats will be large hail (especially Tuesday) ...damaging winds...heavy rain...and very intense lightning. Tornado threat is there...but low. Nothing like what people have faced the past few days in the Plains.
Here are some graphics to explain in more detail.
TUESDAY: SLIGHT RISK
% POTENTIAL: 15% with 30% not far away.
GFS: not impressive NAM: a bit stronger..esp IN
CAPES (instability) :
GFS : not overly high NAM: more than 2500, that is high.
WEDNESDAY: SLIGHT RISK (esp north/east)
GFS - stronger winds head NE NAM
GFS- low values, but there NAM-- very similar to GFS
THURSDAY : No Risk from SPC
There will be a risk for gusty storms..mainly across KY in the early afternoon hours.
Then we get to the holiday weekend.
The issue here will be how low do we go Friday or Saturday night? Some of the recent data the air looks dry enough that upper 40s are possible. Highs may be limited to the 60s north...but 70s for the majority of the area. It should feel great!!
There are signs that a warm front will surge north Memorial Day or that Tuesday.
If that happens...we could set up for a strong NW flow that may lead to MCS' (complexes of storms) to ride that flow. Will it aim toward us...or stay just to our north?!!??
Too early to make that call but needs to be watched.
Nevertheless, the heating that will take place with this warm front looks intense. We may be talking about several days in the 90s ahead as we approaching the first of June.