Main focus continues to be the low pressure influencing our weather ...and will likely continue to do so until late Thursday.
We will track the downpours this afternoon (perhaps small hail) the next few hours. Spotty showers will remain possible all the way through sunrise. It will be chilly tonight with lower 40s in some areas! BRRRR!
It will be fun on the Steamboat Race today :)
The low looks to loss its influence as the day wears on. The dry air punch looks to start over IN/OH first in the afternoon---drifting south toward Louisville by late afternoon/evening. Just how quickly that takes place will be key on just how warm we are at parade time...and cloud/shower coverage. At this point I would dress for the 50s for the parade, and prepare for a shower just in case. This looks very similar to last year.
Oaks looks sunny and pleasant. Highs in the 70s still on track. We continue to see model support for a weak short-wave overnight Oaks into sunrise on Derby Day. This may spark off a few raindrops. Not a huge ordeal.
It still looks sunny and warm for Derby! Highs in the 80s on track. Dewpoints in the 50s will add a more "humid" feel to the air during the day. A cold front to the north is still slated to slide down Saturday night. The timing of that front has not changed much at all in the past 24 hours. That is good for the big race. We will keep small rain chances in over southern IN to I-64 from Derby afternoon into the evening.
Mother's Day does feature some bust potential on highs. The front mentioned above will still be in the area (though it will wash out by the afternoon). Just how active this front becomes will be key on not only the rain coverage, but temperatures. If it becomes too active, highs may get limited to the 50s/60s in some locations while areas away from the front could average 70-80 degrees! So you can see why the bust potential there. We will monitor that.
See ya on TV!