First off, Louisville picked up a trace of snow before midnight...so that will go down as the first trace of the season (Dec 8). We picked up more trace amounts after midnight to add that one to today as well. Lexington: .10" fell. South side of Indy: 1"
The storm track remains active in the days ahead and likely will all the way into the start of 2017.
The issue we will face for the rest of December will be the long wave pattern of the polar jet.
We have to track the path of the cold attacks and also be aware of ridges of high pressure that can influence the direction of those attacks. Once we do that, we can then try to track individual waves of low pressure that will pass through the flow. We have a decent idea of that already hence the snow board above with the dates.
Breaking them down as it stands today:
- Sunday's System: Looking more and more as just rain for us. Later arrival time as well..mainly afternoon on Sunday. There is a bit of dry air showing up in the soundings that could lead to the precip starting as sleet in a few locations. Especially over Indiana. However, the 850mb temps surge to +10°C by the evening...which is warm...aka rain.
- Arctic Front: Next one arrives Wednesday. There is some question here on whether we will just see a weak wave with snow showers...or a more developed one along the front for a heavier precip event. Leaning toward the lighter event idea for now. Certainly colder than the current one it appears.
- Next Weekend: Good signals of a decent wave passing through. If it is as strong as it appears, we may be back in the same boat of an overrunning event at the start of it...then rain..then to snow at the end. Just WAY too early to pinpoint that.
- Last 10 Days: The last 10 of the month feature 2...possibly 3 more waves. The 19/20th, 24/25th, and 30/31st. Yeah, I know. The holidays.
The video hopefully explains the setup better. This is a very unique pattern in how we are getting the cold source regions shifted around. This means we need to tread lightly...and slow.