Snow TALK! Friday

Sorry for the late posting today.  It has been a busy one.

Short term: watch out for slick spots tonight. I know it is Friday and many of you have holiday parties and such...just take it slow and steady out there as you head into subdivisions and such.  Sidewalks remain the most dangerous right now with one hospital alone reported 200 ice fall injuries yesterday.

The light snow/flurries should ease as we head into tonight.

Long term: 3 storms to watch and track between now and 2011.  So here we go!

STORM 1  (next monday/tuesday)

This one is going to be another complicated one.   I wish we just get all rain or all snow to make things easier, but the model tracks vary so much that the risk is there for ice yet again.  Frustrating.

This is a clipper system. One interesting note about those is that they love the ride the edge of the snow cover.  As you can see below, that would take it on a track that would favor snow.

 

GFS:

 

I think that is a possibility.  The UKMET agrees and so does the EURO.  The GFS....not so much.  It trends north with the track bringing the decent snows into IL/IN/OH.  In fact, here is the GFS snow map for that event:  (NAM doesn't go that far yet)

 

So we need more time for the models to iron this out still and get a handle on it once it gets over the Rockies. 

Early guess right now I would suspect advisories to be issued on this one with slick roads Tuesday AM.

 

STORM # 2  (Christmas Eve/Day)

This one will get a lot of pressure due to its timing.  And it looks almost...perfect.  The storm above is forecast to create a block over the far NE.  That should mean the next system would be a southern storm...not a cutter to the Lakes.  That would put it in a track for snow here in KY.

GFS:

 

I do think it runs a risk of rain or snow on the EVE, but by Christmas DAY...it should be all snow.  And for some, it will be an accumulating snowfall.  Keep your fingers crossed!!

 

STORM # 3  (New Years Eve)

Notice the holiday theme here? Mother Nature must have holiday parties to avoid. 

This looks to be another storm in the Ohio Valley. 
GFS:

 

But plenty of time to iron out those details.

Lots of talk of how things look in January.  I do not see any signs of a major pattern change right now.  Though, to keep an active winter pattern lasting that long is very rare.  And would make huge headlines if it happens.  More on that soon.

I am on the evening shows tonight so I gotta start working on maps...and will be away from the blog for awhile.

Have a goode one!

Comments

[Debbie]

Brian, it is so NICE to have you here guiding us with your forecasts', and being a 'snow-luver', at that!!! How did we get so LUCKY?! :)

[Adam]

Do you believe that this cold and wet late fall will continue into 2011, or do you see the weather turning around?

[Robbie]

In terms of Monday/Tuesday, I'll go with the Euro. It does far better with winter storms at this time range. Strange the GFS is warmer as it usually suppresses storm tracks.

As for Christmas, too soon to tell but the snow cover would argue for a storm that keeps us in snow. Normally, a storm track up the Appalachians is a big snow producer for us.

When it comes to January, I think it's in doubt. La Nina looks to be weakening as the waters in 3.4 and 4 have warmed recently. The amount of blocking is something we haven't seen with this strength la nina so we're in unchartered territory. Some of the frequent posters on americanwx.com are saying the pattern breaks down the first week of January and it's 1990 all over again. No thanks.

[John]

I'm glad the Euro favors us right now for monday into tuesday. This is the time range that the Euro has been almost spot on as far as track of the storm this winter.

[Isaiah T.]

The GFS showing 6" to our North? Is this a strong clipper or what?!

[Alex]

Confused...what happened in 1990?? I was 2 :-/

[tim allen]

Most models are taking the clipper Monday into Tennessee ( hint hint GFS)Jim Cantore thinks it could be a decent size storm with alot of energy producing a good swath of snow. This is looking more and more like it could be our biggest snow so far this season. We'll see what the Euro spits out tomorrow...

[justin]

That snow cover map is completely bogus. Snow pack is not nearly as far south as that map indicates.

[Rebecca]

I know it is early, but do you think road travel will be safe on Christmas Eve??? We have family to go see.

[Ashley]

"Mother Nature must have holiday parties to avoid."

AHAHAHAHAHA... Oops. I meant to say: Gosh, I just ADORE holiday parties.

;)

Thank you for the look ahead into next week... We'll see how it pans out with ice still on the ground in the Metro!

[Tyler Ronna]

It looks as if there is some moisture trying to work its way northeast across Tenn. Do you think this will impact the southern part of the viewing area???

[chrisb]

why does lou nws think the high tuesday will be 42 with all rain and wave forecasts a high of 32 with all snow? thats a big difference 3 days away

[feederband]

I don't remember the winter of 90 but the spring was fun. The first week of June produced numerous tornado warnings and severe weather. My son was born on Mothers Day and it was all severe after that. He spent a lot of his early days in the basement.

[Brian Goode]

Chris. The models have shifted a tad north and warmer. Christie will update things at 6 ill update my thoughts tomorrow. Spending Christmas with family today.