Welcome to Meteorological Winter! (Runs Dec-Feb) ...and mother nature is right on cue.
Nice snow flurries today huh? Some spots did get a light dusting from this...but overall just a "pretty" snowfall to look at.
Here are the risks for today's Snow Talk!
I will say that we still run the risk for sprinkles/flurries tomorrow but I do not see any support at all of anything significant as the current system is draining our atmosphere of moisture.
This is one that is going to be tricky to track. Time of day, track of the low are the two factors that will determine our result locally.
Time of day: if it arrives late Friday night, we will see a period of snow. Then back to rain Saturday then back to snow Saturday night. If it arrives during the day Saturday, mostly rain then ending as light snow before ending Saturday night.
Track of the low: The NAM/GFS has shifted a tad further south on this one today. However, the significant snow on these models remains in tact for IN/OH (amounts of 2-4" possible). We will have to watch to see if the track shifts any further south in the model runs today.
Here is the NAM: for the event early Saturday: (notice the rain/snow line, in pink, is north of the metro)
Here is the NAM snowfall outlook:
GFS for Saturday:
GFS snowfall map:
Not a huge storm either way, but a shift south of just 100 miles will bring the snowband right into our backyards. Will monitor. And before you critics pick on me, that was not a "woulda-shoulda-coulda statement'" :) It is a trend the models took today so it needs to be watched.
NEXT TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY EVENT:
I am still holding my ground on this one for now. The models keep playing out a situation where a snowband would go from Kansas southeast into the Florida panhandle. I mean, how many times have we ever see that? I don't recall one. So the track the models are trying to show just doesn't make sense to our typical weather patterns over the southeast. If that track does happen, it would make big news headlines as it will bring snow waaaay to the south. To me, it appears it will be a southeast moving system but the angle will not be as sharp as it makes the turn at the base of the trof. We have seen that many times. In most cases, it gives TN the snow and misses us. That is more likely than what is showing up now to happen. Could it still move north into KY? Yes. But the polar vortex that will be over the NE part of the country is a doozie!!! That is why the models are suppressing this storm so much. It is also why I think they will correct themselves and bring the track more north. I just am not confident yet on how much further north it will come. Still too far out.
Nevertheless...the GFS did trend northward on the 6z run this morning. Nearly 400 miles north in fact.
However, the EURO went more suppressed. It is like they flip flopped. Sigh.
*******************NOTE: just checked the midday model at 1145am, GFS is keeping with the suppressed track. Sorry snowlovers. You may continue reading now :) *************
Here is the current GFS look for the storm position by Tuesday:
EURO (notice how the polar vortex is fully in control of the Ohio Valley) :
NOTE: as I mentioned yesterday, even if the storm stays to our south, it will be quite cold with light snow almost on a daily basis. So I think flakes will fly next week regardless.
DECEMBER 12-14th EVENT:
This looks to be an active period where plenty of cold air will be in the area and low pressure systemswill be swinging on by. I cannot get into detail yet as we just are WAY too far out...but here is just a snapshot of the GFS for this timeframe. Specifics will be ironed out later.
Could this be December 2000 all over again? I was living here then and I remember snow stayed on the ground for weeks. I am not sure yet that this will be a repeat but if we get a decent snowcover next week, it may become a reality.
Here's to December!