Snow Talk! Wednesday Edition

Welcome to Meteorological Winter!  (Runs Dec-Feb)  ...and mother nature is right on cue.

Nice snow flurries today huh? Some spots did get a light dusting from this...but overall just a "pretty" snowfall to look at.

Here are the risks for today's Snow Talk!

 

I will say that we still run the risk for sprinkles/flurries tomorrow but I do not see any support at all of anything significant as the current system is draining our atmosphere of moisture.

WEEKEND EVENT:

This is one that is going to be tricky to track.  Time of day, track of the low are the two factors that will determine our result locally.

Time of day: if it arrives late Friday night, we will see a period of snow.  Then back to rain Saturday then back to snow Saturday night.    If it arrives during the day Saturday, mostly rain then ending as light snow before ending Saturday night.

Track of the low: The NAM/GFS has shifted a tad further south on this one today.  However, the significant snow on these models remains in tact for IN/OH (amounts of 2-4" possible).  We will have to watch to see if the track shifts any further south in the model runs today.

Here is the NAM: for the event early Saturday:  (notice the rain/snow line, in pink, is north of the metro)

 

Here is the NAM snowfall outlook:

 

GFS for Saturday:

 

GFS snowfall map:

 

Not a huge storm either way, but a shift south of just 100 miles will bring the snowband right into our backyards.  Will monitor. And before you critics pick on me, that was not a "woulda-shoulda-coulda statement'" :)  It is a trend the models took today so it needs to be watched.

NEXT TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY EVENT:

I am still holding my ground on this one for now.  The models keep playing out a situation where a snowband would go from Kansas southeast into the Florida panhandle. I mean, how many times have we ever see that?  I don't recall one.  So the track the models are trying to show just doesn't make sense to our typical weather patterns over the southeast.  If that track does happen, it would make big news headlines as it will bring snow waaaay to the south.  To me, it appears it will be a southeast moving system but the angle will not be as sharp as it makes the turn at the base of the trof.  We have seen that many times.  In most cases, it gives TN the snow and misses us.  That is more likely than what is showing up now to happen.  Could it still move north into KY? Yes.  But the polar vortex that will be over the NE part of the country is a doozie!!!  That is why the models are suppressing this storm so much.  It is also why I think they will correct themselves and bring the track more north.   I just am not confident yet on how much further north it will come.  Still too far out. 

Nevertheless...the GFS did trend northward on the 6z run this morning.  Nearly 400 miles north in fact. 

However, the EURO went more suppressed.  It is like they flip flopped.  Sigh.

 

*******************NOTE: just checked the midday model at 1145am, GFS is keeping with the suppressed track. Sorry snowlovers.  You may continue reading now :)  *************

Here is the current GFS look for the storm position by Tuesday:

 

EURO  (notice how the polar vortex is fully in control of the Ohio Valley) :

 

NOTE: as I mentioned yesterday, even if the storm stays to our south, it will be quite cold with light snow almost on a daily basis.  So I think flakes will fly next week regardless.

 

 

DECEMBER 12-14th EVENT:

This looks to be an active period where plenty of cold air will be in the area and low pressure systemswill be swinging on by.  I cannot get into detail yet as we just are WAY too far out...but here is just a snapshot of the GFS for this timeframe.  Specifics will be ironed out later.

 

Could this be December 2000 all over again?  I was living here then and I remember snow stayed on the ground for weeks.  I am not sure yet that this will be a repeat but if we get a decent snowcover next week, it may become a reality.

Here's to December!

Comments

[Crabby D]

The snow flurries this morning were a nice treat...especially on the 1st day of December. Next Tuesday is far off, so there is a lot of time to shift north. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

[CJ]

You are doing an awesome job on the blog! I like that the entire weather team is posting, but I really enjoy reading your posts. I have come back to reading the WAVE 3 blog because of the changes that were made. Thank you all for your hard work.

[Tim]

i f the snow shifts north are we thinking 1-3, 2-4, 5-8? Also, the very cold weather we will get what are you thinking for general highs and lows for next week?

[Babs (Floyds Knobs)]

Thanks for another great update. I am exciting to be checking the blog daily again! The Wave3 Team is doing a great job! :)

[wxwatcher]

I agree, it is great to see all of the changes on this blog. I like hearing from the whole team and especially the frequent updates.

[Steve In Mount Washington, KY]

If we do get alot of decent snows this year and they can keep up with the roads that would be AWESOME!!!!!

[Tyler]

Well now that winter time is back I guess I'm going to have to break out my forecasts for the storms that are on their way. I'm going to try and do that again this year! I hit a couple on the head last year : ) any sign on Rake this year??? By the way, I hope to have time to look at everything tonight or tomorrow when new models come out and see what this weekend is looking like...as JB would say...THINK SNOW

[Jeremy Radford]

I recall you or Kevin saying that the last half of December may be warmer. Is this because of the polar vortex retreating northward or westward?

[Konnie]

This blog is the best thing about winter. It makes the dreary, cold days exciting and fun.

[matt]

i have my eye on the weekend system, we need a southerly jog and parabolic kink in the upper-level winds around E KY to crop up so that it will intensify to our SE and put out in a decent fashion.. waiting on the new initializations this evening.

the system for early next week will stay suppressed due to the strong -NAO signal ..

in regards to the mid-latitude synoptic scale system for mid-december .. this one is the one i have been talking about since mid-november .. hence, it is our best bet for a latherable snow in the short term IMO, IF the clipper doesn't bare fruit of significance ..

and yes i agree this will be a december to remembrrrr if not by snow, by COLD! i am not so sure that the la-nina signal is going to kick in as quickly as a lot of forecasts i have seen .. tons of cold air building in canada and it's not centered as far west as progged by some..

[Brian Goode]

Thanks for all the comments folks. We are working hard to nail down all these forecasts. Jeremy, I did point out that the NAO was heading more neutral and perhaps positive down the road. That would lead to a warmer pattern. I will look at the latest on that and post soon. :)