Weather Blog

Storms back into the region

A few thunderstorms have formed  in Western KY mid evening Saturday. I am not going to severe weather mode just yet. Here is the latest mesoscale update from SPC...

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0672
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0749 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011
  
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...SERN MO...AND EXTREME PARTS OF NWRN
   TN...WRN KY AND SRN IL
  
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
  
   VALID 010049Z - 010145Z
  
   A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF WW 258...
   ESPECIALLY IF RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS
   MOVING NEWD FROM WW 258 WILL PERSIST FARTHER DOWNSTREAM.
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE IS 40 PERCENT.
  
   00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT
   SINCE 21Z...WITH THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ERN IA SSWWD THROUGH
   CENTRAL MO...ERN OK AND INTO CENTRAL TX.  ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE WAS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL INTO
   NERN AR AND COMBINED WITH A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE ARKLATEX
   HAS SUPPORTED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR OVER WRN-NERN AR.
   MEANWHILE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED SSEWD FROM NERN AR TO SRN MS
   AND DELINEATED HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES TO ITS WEST OVER AR/LA...AND
   DRIER AIR TO THE EAST. 
  
   STORMS TRACKING AND OR DEVELOPING NEWD OF WW 258 WILL BECOME
   INCREASINGLY ELEVATED ATOP A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...ATTRIBUTED
   TO THE DRIER AIR EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH.
   ACTIVITY OVER NERN AR WILL BE CLOSER TO STRONGER INSTABILITY AND
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FOR A FEW STORMS TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AND
   ORGANIZATION.  THUS...ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
   THE ELEVATED ACTIVITY.  HOWEVER...AS STORMS DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE
   FARTHER NEWD AWAY FROM THE BETTER INSTABILITY...THE OVERALL SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

Rain moves into Louisville around midnight, a little faster than I thought this afternoon. I'll watch the radar closely, but I do expect a weakening trend as they approach. Some 1/4-1/2 inch rains are possible overnight into Sunday and more rain develops late Sunday into Monday.

 

River Levels Receding... More Rain on Sunday

Thank goodness we have a couple of dry days ahead as we watch the river levels go down.  You'll see plenty of sunshine today and tomorrow with warming temperatures.  If you're heading out to the  Great Balloon Glow tonight, temperatures will be in the 60s at 9pm with winds at 5mph or below.  If winds are 12mph or faster, the glow gets cancelled, but it doesn't look like that will happen tonight.  If you are attending the Great Balloon Glow tomorrow morning, temperatures will be in the 50s at the start of the event at 7am with winds 5-10 mph.  Winds may be a little gusty around noon tomorrow.

 

The Ohio River keeps going down, but is not expected to fall below flood stage until Monday.

 

We are expecting more rain on Sunday and a chance for M0nday.  Although there isn't a threat of severe thunderstorms for Sunday right now, we do expect heavy rain... one thing that we do not need.  We could get an inch or two in some areas.

 

 

Storm TALK! Thursday Edition

***** REMINDER ****************
We are airing a LIVE special tonight at 7:30 ( may start at 7:28 so set your DVR's accordingly) .  We will also stream this on wave3.com !

We are going to look back the past week the flooding over the region and the numerous tornadoes.  And answer... WHY??

Don't miss it!  SPRING's FURY   Tonight @ 7:30p

*************************************************

 6:09 PM UPDATE
Reports of hail covering the ground in Paoli.  Even at U of L some small hail.  Expect these storms to fade afer 8:00 pm.

5:36 PM UPDATE

Jackson/Jennings Counties --- Severe Thunderstorm WARNING until 6pm
The amount of damage and devastation out of the southeast is unreal.

Here is now it stands as of this post:

Tornado Reports (Some may be duplicates...still sorting) : 165

Death toll:  267

Here is the tornado report map:

 

Will it beat 1974's 2 day outbreak of 148 tornadoes?  Too early to tell...but it is possible. Stay tuned.

So what is next?

I will break this into 2 parts... short term...long term..and long long term :)

SHORT TERM:
A few "hailers" possible this evening as thunderstorms swing through southern Indiana.  We see this often with upper lows in the spring.  Cold air aloft...and a warming ground thanks to sunshine...classic setup.  A few wind gusts or hailstones could get close to warning criteria so don't be surprised to see a warning or two issued this evening from this.  One the sun goes down...that warming part of the equation will be eliminated and they will fade.

 

LONG TERM:
Looks great Friday/Saturday.  Cloud cover wise...looks like some lingering clouds in the east tomorrow and maybe some high thin clouds increasing late Saturday afternoon/evening.  Otherwise, blue sky folks!

Our next weather maker moves in Sunday.  This looks like a front that will be slow enough to allow another low pressure to ride along it.  That will enhance the heavy rain potential with this event.

How much rain?  HPC is forecasting 2-3"

 

This could cause some of the river to rise yet again..and likely will keep the Ohio River either at or above flood stage (falling until Sunday).  Just too early yet to get too specific on river conditions as we have to figure out how much rain will indeed fall first.  We will keep you updated.

Could we see severe weather from this event Sunday/Monday?

Doubtful right now. It highly depends on timing right now. SPC mentions the idea of a SLIGHT rise may down the road...but with such model timing issues...they will hold off.  I would agree with that. 

Here is how the models see this:

GFS:
Rain arrives Sunday morning- not much timing for heating, notice the heavy rain however.

 

CAPES (Instability)
Only slight amount of instability to our south.

 

NAM
About the same timing overall...Sunday morning.  It is the EURO and other models (that I cannot show) that have more delayed timing issues.

 

CAPES:  none at all showing up.

 

We will watch it closely.  Heavy rain appears to be the main threat right now.  We will fine-tune the timing.

The Ohio River is starting to drop...along with other rivers.  Notice is it forecast to drop to near Flood Stage by Sunday evening (Upper Gauge is shown).  Obviously the rain Sunday could change that outlook.

 

LONG LONG TERM:
Another front arrives on Thursday...but right now it looks like the rain would hold off until after the Pegasus Parade.  Let's hope!  Dawne Gee and I hosting it!!

 

Oaks Day (Friday the 6th)
looks like a front clearing the region early in the day. Hopefully a dry afternoon.

 

Derby Day (Saturday the 7th)
Another storm approaching.  Right now, GFS keeps it dry...but timing will be key on this one.  Cross your fingers!

 

 

Severe Weather ALERT MODE

 

 

 

Going to throw the blog into update mode this afternoon/overnight.  So keep checking back...we will do our best to keep it updated.  We also will have constant updates on our facebook page WAVE 3 Weather

 

10:44 PM
Stepping down from ALERT MODE.
Tornado Watch cancelled I 65 west...and likely east soon.

130 tornado reports today...148 in 1974.  What a sad, deadly say for the south especially.

More on that in the coming days.

Locally- river flooding will continue..but heavy rain threat is easing.

Few storms tomorrow that may prompt a svr warning in places due to hail and perhaps a strong wind guys...nothing widespread.

Sunshine Friday/Saturday

7:54 PM
EF1 confirmed in Hardin Co from last night's storms.

...NWS STORM SURVEY CONFIRMS AN EF-1 TORNADO IN HARDIN COUNTY...

DAMAGE TYPE: TORNADO

       DATE: APR 26 2011

BEGIN POINT: 2.2 MILES ENE OF GLENDALE
  END POINT: 2.9 MILES ENE OF GLENDALE

   EF SCALE: EF-1
WIND SPEED: 100-105 MPH

PATH LENGTH: 0.7 MILES
PATH WIDTH: 75-125 YARDS


NARRATIVE: AN NWS STORM SURVEY CONFIRMED AN EF-1 TORNADO IN HARDIN
COUNTY. THE TORNADO FORMED JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND TRAVELED
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERSTATE...THE HARDIN COUNTY
FAIRGROUNDS...AND ENDED JUST EAST OF THE 1ST UNION CHURCH ROAD AND
SPORTSMAN LAKE ROAD INTERSECTION. AS THE TORNADO TRAVELED ACROSS THE
COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...IT STRUCK A LARGE LIVESTOCK BARN AS WELL AS THE
FAIRGROUNDS RESTAURANT AND GRILL. THE ROOF OF THE RESTAURANT WAS
THROWN WESTWARD ON TOP OF A LIVESTOCK BARN. METAL SIDING WAS ALSO
THROWN 250 YARDS AND SEVERAL TREES WERE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED. NEAR
THE TORNADO END POINT...THERE WAS ROOF DAMAGE TO A ONE STORY HOUSE
AS WELL AS DOWNED POWER LINES.

7:10 PM
Major damage in AL due to a large wedge tornado.  Just unreal. 

5:41 PM
Tornado WATCH coming out now for entire viewing area until 1am.

5:30 PM
Severe Thunderstorm WARNING Grayson Co until 6pm EDT

5:27 PM
Two tornadoes confirmed in Grayson County from last evening:

...NWS STORM SURVEY CONFIRMS TWO TORNADOES IN GRAYSON COUNTY...

DAMAGE TYPE: TORNADO

       DATE: APR 26 2011

BEGIN POINT: 1.1 MILES SW TAR HILL
  END POINT: 1.8 MILES E TAR HILL

   EF SCALE: EF-2
WIND SPEED: 120-125 MPH

PATH LENGTH: 2.9 MILES
PATH WIDTH: 1/4 MILE


NARRATIVE: AN NWS STORM SURVEY CONFIRMED AN EF-2 TORNADO IN GRAYSON
COUNTY. THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ALONG DANNY SADLER ROAD. THE
TORNADO TRAVELED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS HIGHWAYS 920 AND 720
AND FINALLY LIFTED JUST EAST OF THE GRAYSON/HARDIN COUNTY LINE NEAR
BURKHEAD LN. THE PATH WIDTH WAS 75 YARDS AT THE BEGINNING AND 50
YARDS AT THE END...INCREASING TO A QUARTER MILE AT ITS WIDEST POINT.
ALONG THE PATH NUMEROUS LARGE HARDWOOD TREES WERE SNAPPED AND
UPROOTED. NUMEROUS OUTBUILDINGS AND BARNS WERE DESTROYED WITH THEIR
SIDING THROWN 500 YARDS. A NEW 24 FOOT TRAVEL TRAILER WAS DESTROYED.
FIFTEEN HOMES HAD MAJOR ROOF DAMAGE. AN SINGLE WIDE TRAILER WAS
DESTROYED ON DANNY SADLER ROAD. FARM EQUIPMENT WAS THROWN 50 YARDS.



DAMAGE TYPE: TORNADO

       DATE: APR 26 2011

BEGIN POINT: 1.3 MILES SW TAR HILL
  END POINT: 1.1 MILES SSW TAR HILL

   EF SCALE: EF-0
WIND SPEED: 75 MPH

PATH LENGTH: 1/3 MILES
PATH WIDTH: 60 YARDS


NARRATIVE: AN NWS STORM SURVEY CONFIRMED AN EF-0 TORNADO TOUCHED
DOWN JUST SOUTH OF DANNY SADLER ROAD WEST OF HIGHWAY 920. TREES WERE
SNAPPED AND UPROOTED ALONG THE PATH OF THIS SHORT LIVED TORNADO.
POWER LINES WERE ALSO BLOWN DOWN.

4:17 PM
Tornado watch likely soon.

 

2:50 PM
Slightly unstable in SE MO...we will see if that translates into the region this evening. Otherwise, steady rains for the next few hours.

 

1:19 PM
SPC added us into the 5% risk for severe storms tomorrow.  This is below SLIGHT RISK level.  The reason? The models have been trending toward some early morning sunshine.  That combined with the cool backside of this departing low pressure could fire up some "hailers" into the afternoon. Some strong winds possible too with the downdrafts.  Not a huge outbreak but we do see this often in this setup so I agree with the risk right now.

 

12:50 PM
Strongly worded SPC discussion about this afternoon.  They even mentioned Louisville specifically.

FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS MIDDLE TN IN WCNTRL KY...THE ONGOING MCS
   IS HAMPERING DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...AS THE MID-LEVEL JET NOSES
   INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY IN NRN LA
   AND SRN AR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT QUICKLY NNEWD ACROSS WCNTRL TN AND
   WCNTRL KY BETWEEN THE EXITING MCS AND A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NW AR
   AND SRN MO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE MOIST AXIS TO BE LOCATED FROM WEST
   OF NASHVILLE NEWD TO NEAR LOUISVILLE WHERE NUMEROUS SFC-BASED
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
   LOW-LEVEL JET AND MID-LEVEL JET ARE FORECAST TO BE JUXTAPOSED ACROSS
   THIS CORRIDOR SUGGESTING SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES EVEN IF DESTABILIZATION IS NOT AS GREAT AS
   IS EXPECTED. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A BROKEN LINE OF TORNADIC
   SUPERCELLS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE MODERATE RISK
   AREA AND TRACK EWD ACROSS CNTRL KY AND MIDDLE TN EARLY THIS EVENING.
   THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES
   AND A FEW LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. THE MODERATE RISK
   AREA HAS BEEN EXTENDED WWD ACROSS PARTS OF MIDDLE TN AND CNTRL KY TO
   ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

12:42 PM
SPC has moved the MODERATE RISK back into central KY.  Here is the tornado risk.  It puts us in the 15% risk of tornado with a 10% chance of a strong tornado in the hatched area.

 

10:23 AM
Mid level lapse rates increasing in MO/AR..that is where SPC may issue a watch soon.  Notice some increase in west KY too due to some sunshine.

 

9:05 AM
Latest from SPC (we are still in a slight risk by the way)

LONG THE PATH OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE CYCLONE...THERE
   WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER
   TODAY.  THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION GIVEN THE IMPACTS
   OF OVERNIGHT AND ONGOING CONVECTION FARTHER TO THE SE.  STILL...ANY
   CLOUD BREAKS WILL ALLOW DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL MIDLEVEL
   TEMPERATURES...IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR.
   DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
   ANY CLUSTERS IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW.

 

8:56 AM
There is some sunshine showing up just to out to our west.  Watching that for how it will affect the afternoon

 

8:52 AM
Severe weather warnings no longer in effect.  Flash flooding/river floodning continues. 

7:53 AM
Anderson/Washington/Adair/Franklin/Henry/Shelby --- Severe thunderstorm WARNINGS until 715cdt/815edt

7:44 AM
Severe Thunderstorm WARNINGS for Adair/Green until 8:15 EDT

7:30 AM
Louisville has picked up 2.47" of rain so far...since midnight.

7:26 AM
Flash Flooding a big concern for the region this morning.  It is now officially the wettest April EVER ...now that we crossed over 11" of rain for the month this morning.

7:20 AM
Tornado WATCH extend for southern/eastern counties until 11am.

7:09 AM
Busy morning so far. No tornado warnings at this time..but severe thunderstorm WARNINGS in effect for Green/Hart until 7:30.

2:25AM... eastern grayson southern hardin svr until 2:45 AM... some rotation indicated aloft...

 

1:35AM... flash flood warnings for  bullitt, hardin, jefferson, oldham, trimble in ky, clark, floyd, harrison, jefferson, scott and washington co in IN until 430 AM

12:58 AM
seem to be transitioning to a hail and heavy rain event. not getting wind reports and storms look linear rather than rotating. hopefully that will continue. flash flood warnings out now for most counties west of louisville till 930 am for expected round of heavy rain.  AW

12:10 AM
central henry county until 1AM, central breckinridge until 12:45

12:00 AM
day 2 after midnight and we are off again... Scott and clark counties severe storm warning until 12:30 AM....AW

11:20 PM
The Biggest Loser will re-air at 3:05 AM on WAVE 3
The VOICE will re-air tomorrow (Wednesday) at 9:00 PM on WAVE 3

11:11 PM
Grayson County Magistrate - Jason Dennis joining John Chrisos on WAVE 3 News... talking about the damage in Grayson County. 

11:09 PM
Closely watching storms across west Kentucky... tornado warning for Ohio Co., KY - one county outside of the WAVE 3 viewing area.  Moving northeast.

11:06 PM
WAVE 3 News shows damage in Grayson & Hardin Counties associated with the storm that's been moving through.

10:15 PM
Numerous reports of hail in northeast Nelson Co., near Bloomfield & Chaplin.

9:46 PM
Tornado warnings cleared for now. More storms in west KY we are watching for some severe threat and especially flash flooding.  Stay tuned. 

9:28 PM
Damage reported of St Paul Road in Grayson County as well as Big Clifty and Clarkson.  Roof torn off of one building.  Tornado WARNINGs continue for Larue/Nelson untl 945 as this pulls out of Hardin Co.

8:54 PM
Tornado Damage reported in Clarkson (Grayson County)  House and barn destroyed.

8:50 PM
The tornado should be over Glendale right now.  Tornado WARNINGS extended now into Larue/Nelson counties until 915pm.

8:43 PM
Tornado WARNING continues for Hardin County until 9pm.  Tornado spotted near Stephensburg.  ETown is in the of this storm. 

7:23 PM
Tornado WARNING or Grayson/Breckinridge until 745 EDT

TAKE COVER NOW! There have been reports that this tornado is on the ground! 

7:01 PM
Spotters report that there could be a tornado on the ground near Hartford in Ohio County. 

6:48 PM
Our radar is strongly indicating a tornado just NW of Beaver Dam.

5:58 PM
Tornado WATCH until 11pm EDT
 

5:42 PM
Tornado WATCH coming out soon for portions of the area...likely will include Louisville.  Details shortly.

5:30 PM
Supercell in west KY right now near Hopkins County.  Wall cloud and funnel cloud spotted. 

3:29 PM
First PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Tornado WATCH is out for AR/TX. This will be ground zero for strong tornadoes tonight.

 

3:27 PM
Tornado WATCH is out to our north for this evening.  No counties in our viewing area are included.

 

1:42 PM
Latest SPC outlook for tomorrow does not look pretty.

MODERATE RISK for all of us:

 

Probability of severe: 45% .   hatched area means 10% risk of severe within 25 miles of a point.

 

1:34 PM
Confrence Call Details.  Here is what they said:

1-2" of rain possible late tonight with thunderstorms.
severe threat looks low tonight compared to the rain threat
tomorrow looks to be the rough day
the key is do we see any sun tomorrow
highest severe threat south/east of Louisville
rain tomorrow could be 2-4"
timing on storms would be noon to 8pm
tornadoes possible
straight-line winds up to 80 mph possible tomorrow

Heavy rain discussion:
potential of 4-5" next 36 hours (worst case)
Green River did rise quite a bit overnight
Watching Barren River as well
Potential for Rough River Lake to fill to capacity and spill over.  If it did..it would be a first.
Ohio River forecast remains unchanged...upper gauge to reach 33.3' and lower gauge 65'
Ohio is higher the more west you go.

 

1:33 PM
SPC may issue a WATCH just to our north.

 

1:16 PM
Dr. Forbes at The Weather Channel is giving parts of AR/TX a TOR:CON value of 9!!  Wow. 

12:05 PM
Conference Call is scheduled with the NWS and Emergency Managers in the region at 1:30pm. We will post the details as the are announced on the call.

11:30 AM
Sun is coming out in places.  It is becoming unstable to our west.  Scattered storms are expected to fire this afternoon..some severe.  A higher threat for severe will kick in late tonight with isolated tornadoes possible.

 

**** SWITCHING THE BLOG UPDATES TO TUESDAY *****

5:30 AM
In my 13 years at WAVE I've never experienced a week like this!  It's been non-stop... and we still have two more days with very active weather.  I think San Diego may be calling my name (morning fog, sunny high 75 - I could do that everyday)!  Christie will have the latest river levels this morning, Brian will be in at noon... I'll see ya tonight at 5!

5:26 AM
The threat of severe weather is over - for this morning.  More storms will be possible later this afternoon & tonight.  There is a possibility for strong to severe storms again at that time.  Heavy rain still looks likely during the day Wednesday.

5:25 AM
Damage has been reported in Bardstown, Bloomfield, Lebanon, Springfield & Frankfort... winds knocking down trees & power lines in a few places.

4:01 AM
Trees have been reported down in Caneyville in Grayson Co., KY with these storms.  The most intense damage appears to be in Murray.  The KY MesoNet station recorded a wind speed of 100.8 MPH in Murray as the line approached... damage to structures, trees & power lines reported.

4:01 AM
Severe Thunderstorm WARNING issued for Adair & Taylor Cos., KY until 4:30AM

4:00 AM
Severe Thunderstorm WARNINGS continue for Bullitt, Hardin, Hart, LaRue, Nelson & Taylor Cos., KY until 4:15 AM.

3:12 AM
Severe Thunderstorm WARNING for DuBois Co., IN until 3:45 AM

 3:12 AM
Tornado WARNING for southeastern Pike & northern Warrick Cos, IN until 3:30AM

3:11 AM
Damaging winds possible in Grayson Co., KY - Kentucky MesoNet recording winds speeds up to 44MPH in Bowling Green.

2:58 AM
Severe Thunderstorm WARNING - Grayson Co., KY until 3:30 AM

2:20 AM
Watching storms to our west... still capable of producing 60+ MPH winds... there are areas of rotation along the line.

1:55 AM
Tornado WARNINGS Caldwell, Crittenden, Union & Webster Cos., KY until 2:30 AM

12:45 AM
Severe Thunderstorm WATCH for western Kentucky - including Hardin, Breckinridge, Grayson & Hart until 6:00 AM.

12:01 AM
Poplar Bluff, MO predicting a record crest... Ohio River at Cairo, IL predicting a record 60.5'.  WOW!

11:50 PM
We invite you to post your pictures and publish your reports to our facebook page... it's the hub for all things WAVE 3 Weather - WAVE 3 WEATHER FACEBOOK PAGE

11:48 PM
Flood ALERT - a line of showers & storms will move into the flood watch area during the early morning hours Tuesday and will likely produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts possible.  This rainfall combined with the excessinve rainfall over the past few days will result in flash flooding... with life-threatening flooding possible as area creeks & rivers rise rapidly over roadways & bridges.  

11:46 PM
The popular question has been (well in addition to if areal is a real word - yes it is) has been how will this compare to 1997.  The flood of 1997 was Louisville's 7th largest flood on record.  We could reach into the top 10 is the rain forecasts pan out.

11:45 PM
There is a chance for a few storms on Tuesday with the best chance late Tuesday into Wednesday... then on Wednesday a few strong storms will be possible along with the threat for heavy rain.  Total rainfall amounts forecast between now & early Thursday are still on target to reach between 3 & 6 inches.

11:40 PM
The threat for severe weather to our west is waning... The storms to the south have robbed the energy... no complaints here!  We will still likely see showers & storms during the pre-dawn hours as the low level jet increase and the precipitation shield expands. 

10:20 PM
I"m working on the latest river levels to show on WAVE 3 News at 11:00.  I hope you'll join us then for a look at what's to come for the rest of the night and the rest of the week.

10:15 PM
Officials in Vilonia, AR report that the town is gone... they are asking for help.  Radar imagery showed an impressive return (reflectivity & velocity) very close to the town. A tornado emergency was issued for the town, population 3,800, before the storm hit.  Daybreak will bring horrifying images from this location just northeast of Little Rock.  Reports say that the pavement was even scoured... this only happens in the strongest tornadoes. 

9:58 PM
Officials in Henry County said that they are inspecting the dam at Jericho Lake carefully.  There are signs of erosion.  Evacuation orders were give to those that live along the flood threat area.  A shelter at 4H in New Castle has been opened for those affected.  A Flash Flood WARNING remains in effect for this portion of Henry County until 1am.

9:39 PM
The latest RUC still is showing the line holding up to our west until 8am.  Watching this carefully.  The flooding situation in west KY could be a very serious situation.  We may luck out in the short term tonight but still got to watch this line carefully.

 

 

 

 

8:20 PM
Kevin and I are discussing the latest model trends that want to hold this line back to our west until Sunrise!  If that happens, serious flooding out to our west.  We'll watch this carefully. 

8:13 PM
Dr. Forbes at TWC now showing a debris ball just south of Little Rock...this tornado is on the ground.  Wow. 

7:40 PM
2 injured now from the tornado below.

7:37 PM
Tornado on the ground just SW of Little Rock, AR
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN FAULKNER...
EASTERN PERRY...WEST CENTRAL PULASKI...NORTHWESTERN SALINE AND EAST
CENTRAL GARLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 627 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
   TORNADO...WITH HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGE.  THIS TORNADO WAS
   LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF LAKE WINONA...OR 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF
   BENTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

7:26 PM
Flash flood WARNING continues for northern Henry co until 1am due to the Jericho Dam situation.  We will monitor that area closely tonight.

 

 

6:30 PM
severe thunderstorm warnings continue for Breckinridge/Perry counties until 6:45pm EDT

Also watching sun back out again in west KY. This is not good for those folks.

 

6:02 PM
Couple of things:
Trying to confirm the evacuations taking place in Henry County due to the Sulphur Dam.  Stay tuned for more on that.

Also, a new PDS Tornado WATCH has been issued for west KY until 1am EDT.

 

PDS- Particularly Dangerous Situation

These storms could push into our region after midnight.

5:58 PM
Monitoring the storms carefully in southwest KY.  You can see the instability with capes of 500+.

 

Supercells are possible in this setup tonight.

5:15 PM
Kentucky has now declared a State of Emergency

 

Here at the latest WATCHES in effect including a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Sitaution)

 

 

This includes a Severe Thunderstorm WATCH for southern KY has been extended northward to include Grayson/Hart counties until 9:00 pm .  There have been tornado warnings with this line.

 

 

 

 

Latest on the River Flooding...

Quick update: the "crest" is forecast for Thursday evening now for the Ohio Upper Gauge.

It is important to keep in mind that these forecasts will keep changing...and so with the timing of the peak or "crest"  so we will try to keep you updated. The river heights could certainly go higher as we get a better handle on Wednesday's very heavy rainfall expected. 

 

 

Here are the very latest levels and forecast that came in at 3pm.

 

Ohio River:

Upper Gauge.  Currently:  29.5’  Forecast Crest: 33’ Thursday evening  (FLOOD STAGE IS 23’)

Lower Gauge.  Currently: 61.2’  Forecast Crest: 65’ Early Thursday morning  (FLOOD STAGE is 55’)

 

Salt River (Shepherdsville)

Currently: 32’   Forecast Crest: 32.1’  Late tonight  (FLOOD STAGE is 32’)

 

Taylorsville Lake:

Current Depth: 576’   Forecast: 583 ‘ by Thursday  (FLOOD STAGE is 592’)

 

Rolling Fork (Boston)

Currently: 41.5’   Forecast Crest: 42.5’ Tuesday afternoon  (FLOOD STAGE is 35’)

 

East Fork of the White River (Bedford)
Currently: 30.5’  Forecast Crest: 31.1’   (FLOOD STAGE is 20’)

 

East Fork of the White River (Seymour)

Currently: 16’  Forecast to re-Crest:  17.9’  Thursday afternoon (FLOOD STAGE is 14’)

Flooding and Severe Risk

There seems to be no end to the rain!  And the worst is yet to come.  While we may see pockets of heavy rain today and tomorrow, Wednesday will be the "sink or swim" day with the heaviest downpours.  Here's the QPF predicting 3"- 6" of rain for most of our viewing area.

 

All of Wednesday's rain is not included in the river forecasts, so taking that into consideration, the forecasted river levels could go higher with the final rain totals before the rain moves out on Thursday.

 
The lower gauge could go 10 feet above flood stage by Thursday.

 
The upper gauge of the Ohio river is expected to reach close to 10 feet above flood stage Thursday as well.  If we exceed 34.1 feet, then we will be going down in the records among the top ten highests crests for the upper gauge.

 
 

 

On top of the flooding, we are expecting a threat of severe thunderstorms tonight through Wednesday morning.  The main threats will be damaging winds and large hail.

 
 

(4/25) Areal... A Real... Aerial

Aerial - from the air
A Real - not fake
Arial - the type of font this is typed in
Areal - an adjective for the word area

It's been the #1 question over the past few days...
Many thinking we've misspelled the word AERIAL or meant to put the word AREA, but actually the word AREAL is correct.  It's the adjective for the word AREA and is used by the National Weather Service to describe the type of flooding that is occuring... meaning over an area.  Since it describes the type of flood it's an adjective and not a noun.

I hope this helps clear up some of the confusion.

I think it's safe to say that from an aerial view you can see that areal flooding is covering a large amount of real estate... a real big mess!

(4/24) Flooding Continues...

We continue to monitor areal flooding.  Waters are expected to rise over the next few days as rain continues.  Three to six inches expected through Wednesday. 

Silver Creek in Clark County - Pictures Posted by Jamie
 



 

 

(4/24) Heaviest Rain Yet To Come...

 
Many areas have seen between 4 to 6 inches of rain over the past few days.  We could double those totals in some areas before all is said and done this week.  More heavy rain possible tonight through Wednesday.

The latest radar imagery shows thunderstorms blossoming in Missouri... these are following along that stalled boundary that sits along the Ohio River.  One to two inches of rain possible tonight.  We'll be tracking that area of rain as it moves into Kentucky and Indiana later this evening.

HELPFUL LINKS
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River Levels

(4/24) "LIFE THREATENING FLOODING POSSIBLE"

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE...

...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING SITUATION POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER INTENSE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL RATES COULD APPROACH 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND CAUSING RAPID FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER RISES. WATER RESCUES AND EVACUATIONS HAVE OCCURRED TO THE WEST WITH THIS LATEST BATCH OF RAINFALL. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE DANGEROUS FLOODING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN NORTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA WHERE EXCESSIVE RAIN HAS RECENTLY FALLEN. DUE TO THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS...LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THE PUBLIC IS URGED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF PLANNING ON DRIVING OR IF YOU LIVE NEAR A BODY OF WATER. STAY UP TO DATE OF THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND KEEP YOURSELF SAFE. REMEMBER IF YOU SEE WATER ACROSS A ROADWAY...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN!

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN MO/WRN KY WILL POSE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH A WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY ATTM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
EARLY AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN AR NEWD ALONG THE OH RIVER. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS OCCURRING S OF THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S AND 80S...WHICH IS REINFORCING TIGHT SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. IN ADDITION...CONTINUED INFLUX OF 60S DEWPOINTS IS AIDING IN ELONGATED E-W ZONE OF PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT. COMBINATION OF 30 KT S-SWLY LLJ EXIT REGION FOCUSED OVER THE FRONT AND MODERATE  W-SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW IS FAVORING BACKBUILDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SERN MO AND WRN KY. CONTINUOUS TRAINING OF CELLS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES FROM 1 TO 2 IN/HR.

MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS RESULTING IN WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...AREA VWP/S AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT...STRONGER CELLS WILL POSE A SVR WEATHER RISK. IN ADDITION...SVR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NRN AR WILL APPROACH SERN MO/WRN KY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THOUGH A WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY ATTM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING SVR WEATHER THREAT.