Weather Blog

A few notes on a lazy Sunday afternoon

1. 15 days of 90 or better and counting. I am confident of at least 4-5 more. The record of 22 straight days 90 or better set in 2007 is attainable.

2. We may tracking "Emily" in the Atlantic this week. A lot has to happen for a US threat

3. My August outlook for Louisville is about 2 degrees above normal on temperatures and 75% of normal rainfall.

4. Models insist on the heat ridge weakening. We know it will break down eventually, but I suspect the charts are too fast which is why i remain warmer than normal for August.

(7/29) Back To The 80s!

 
Temperatures have been well above normal for the month of July.  The highs and lows are listed below.  We'll have a chance to see temperatures top out in the 80s on Saturday before another heat wave rolls in starting Sunday.  Looking ahead... August looks hot to me!  I'd say the first two weeks are filled with a number of 90 degree days - some of the models try to bring a significant cool down in by the 2nd week.  I'm not buying it.  Andy Weingarten will have his August forecast out on Monday.

HOW HOT HAS IT BEEN?
1st  high: 88  low: 70 
2nd  high: 91  low: 72
3rd  high: 91  low: 72
4th  high: 86  low: 71
5th  high: 89  low: 73
6th  high: 90  low: 73
7th  high: 91  low: 72
8th  high: 84  low: 73
9th  high: 89  low: 71
10th  high: 92  low: 71
11th  high: 97  low: 77
12th  high: 97  low: 72
13th  high: 91  low: 73
14th  high: 87  low: 72
15th  high: 90  low: 69
16th  high: 88  low: 75
17th  high: 90  low: 76
18th  high: 93  low: 76
19th  high: 94  low: 73
20th  high: 95  low: 73
21st  high: 96  low: 81
22nd  high: 95  low: 77
23rd  high: 94  low: 81
24th  high: 94  low: 79
25th  high: 91  low: 78
26th  high: 94  low: 74
27th  high: 94  low: 77
28th  high: 98  low: 77
29th  high: 95  low: 79

13 days in a row at or above 90°
22 days at or above 90° this month

WILL IT RAIN?
Rain chances look likely across parts of southern Indiana overnight Friday in early Saturday.  The rain shield will diminish as the night goes on, but I'll still hold on to a chance for Louisville.  I think totals will be slim.  Rain chances fade as the front passes to the south.  If we see the sun return by late morning or early afternoon we'll have a chance to reach 90° (for the 14th consecutive day - 22 days is Louisville's record).  Otherwise, I think morning clouds will keep us in the upper 80s.  90s return Sunday and mid 90s arrive by midweek.
 
  


DISAPPOINTING DON
Texans are feeling the heat like no other.  Under extreme drought conditions Tropical Storm Don had promised at least some relief from the dry conditions and triple digit heat.  However, as the storm approached land the moisture evaporated... and little rain fell across southern Texas.
 
  

Insomniac Storm TALK! Friday Edition

Goode morning! 

It looks like we are already starting off on a warm/muggy note ...temps in the 80s at 4am with heat indicies close to 90.

NWS has gone ahead with a Heat Advisory for most of the area today:

 

Temperatures will be cooler with more clouds later, but the humidity will be higher.  So a trade off of sorts that will still lead to it "feeling like" 105 later. 

Speaking of clouds.  Storm chances are going up over the next 24-48 hours.  I am sure many of you are happy about this as we are down on rain totals for July.

Some of the storms could be locally strong with heavy rain and intense lightning.  Keep in mind, warnings are issued from the NWS for large hail/high winds/flooding---not for lightning.  

SPC OUTLOOKS:

Today                                                                          Saturday

                                               

   

Notice the slight risk isn't too far from us.  We cannot rule out a few warnings here locally later today and tonight.   Saturday there is no risk out, but we are in the thunderstorm zone. Strong storms in southern KY possible Saturday afternoon.

Decided to post the NAM as I think it has the best timing right now with the storms/rain.

THIS AFTERNOON--- storms developing.  Mostly to our west/northwest

 

TONIGHT-  storms in our area.  Hight rain threat taking place during this time

 

SATURDAY: still scattered storms in the area, especially early day, with higher threat southern KY

 

SUNDAY:  threat for storms very low and to our south.  Most of us will stay dry

 

Rain amounts will highly vary due to the placement of thunderstorms.  But 1-2" not out of the question with the heavier storms.  We'll just have to watch that closely.

The heat does build back in early next week but the 2nd half of next week does look stormy.  More on that in the coming days.

The "Don" Part I

 
Before we get into the tropics talk ...let's focus on our upcoming rain chances.

Here is the setup. 

 

Front to our north right now.  That is where SPC has a slight risk out for severe storms today.  There is also a stationary front to our south providing tropical rains for a very dry area of the country.

We (me on the map...hehe) are in middle.  Other than isolated pops ...the atmosphere is not only warm at the ground, but is warming up aloft as well. You need colder air aloft to get storms.  Situations like this is what we mean when we say the atmosphere is "capped".  However, that also means the heat is relentless in our zone.  Not much will change tomorrow either.  In fact Paducah just issued Heat Advisories for west KY tomorrow.  We may see some issued in our area as well from the Louisville office.

However, good news.  That front to the north will push southward Friday.  Below you can see the storms breaking out. Mostly north, but a few may push into our after in the afternoon.  Since we are dealing with a front and not just daytime heating as a trigger, some could last after sunset as well.

 

Saturday the front is bearing down on us.  Scattered showers/storms are looking more and more likely in the area.  Could we see severe storms? Sure...a few warnings may get issued but that threat looks isolated as the intense lightning and very heavy rain will be main threats.

 

Sunday the front slides to our south, so main storm threat shifts south. 

 

Now, this front is key to what happens with the tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.  If the front is slower than forecast, the tropical moisture may feed northward and collect along the front.  Right now, that threat looks to be south of here.  However, it will all be about timing of both systems and the track of "Don" itself.  Still lots of questions on that issue.

Here are the HPC rain totals over the next 5 days.  A general .50" is possible with up to 2-3" in thunderstorms.

 

Speaking of "Don", so far it is just a tropical wave.  However, it likely will be a depression or even a tropical storm before you read this post :)   Right now, it is located just N/NE of Cancun, Mexico.  The forecast models take it toward the western Gulf of Mexico by Friday.  I outlined the landfall potential zone on the map.  Still a pretty large area.

 

Several models keep it a weak system, however the HWRF (hurricane model) still wants to develop "Don" into a weak hurricane as it approaches SE TX.

 

Stormy weather is already impacting the beaches in Cancun:

 

We will keep you posted on how the next few days line up. Just keep in mind, HEAT will be our first threat...then the STORMS.    And I should add...more HEAT next week.  Sigh.

 

Could DON be the heat buster for TX? What about us?

NHC is monitoring an area right now in the NW Caribbean.  It is not a depression yet, but it does have  risk to become better organized as it heads NW.

 

Here is their statement:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED A
COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA.  HOWEVER...THE
SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME.  ADDITIONAL
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 15 MPH.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

 

One of the forecast models does develop this into a hurricane as it approaches the SE Texas coast. 

 

Granted, other models don't even see this system at all. 

Hopefully it can become a poorly organized system that will help give TX some decent rainfall.  This would also mean it would have a higher chance to send moisture more into the deep south and perhaps into our region.

If it does become strong, it likely will head more inland and due west toward Mexico.  In other words, we would miss out.

Just something to monitor in the coming days.  The models are far from agreement on this one.

Afternoon Storms Closeby

There is a risk for some isolated strong storms in IL/IN this afternoon/evening. There is better moisture in that area and more of a trigger. 

Here is the latest satellite image.  You can see how the cumulus are scattered all around the region.  Those of you south of Louisville have nice blue skies right now.

 

Radar is fairly quiet.  Just a few thundershowers right now developing.  It will be those thundershowers can could gain enough intensity to briefly become severe.

 
Dewpoints well into the 70s to our N/NW.   Hovering mostly in the upper 60s to low 70s locally.

 

The winds are still weak aloft, but the best wind shear is closer to where the storms are firing...again IL/IN.  The flow is from the NW today so any storm that develops will head S/SE.

 

Overall, the threat is to our N/NW.  But will monitor those of you from Orange/Lawrence Counties to Jackson County.

Getting Hot, But Not Quite As Humid

So far for the month of July, we have reached the 90s 18 days (today will make 19).  Last year at this time in July, we were up to 20.  For July two years ago we didn't even reach 90 all month long!

We have reached 90 degrees or higher 31 days so far this year (today will be 32).

April..............1 day

May...............4 days

June..............8 days

July..............18 days

TOTAL..........31 days

The hottest temperature we've reached was 97 degrees which we hit twice this month (on the 11th and 12th).  We are heading into another stretch of hot weather with highs in the mid 90s for the third time this month.  However, this stretch will feel a little bit better because the humidity won't be as high as the other two "heat waves" earlier this month around the 11th and 12th and the other one around the 20th through the 22nd.  During those time periods, we had heat indices reaching 116 and 112 respectively.  This week, our heat indices may reach 100, but nowhere near as high as earlier this month.

 

Hot weather tip: 

If you will be spending time outside today, eat foods that contain mostly water.  Many fruits and vegetables meet this criteria like apples, oranges, watermelon, lettuce, strawberries, celery, etc.

(7/25) Christmas In July

CHRISTMAS IN JULY
It's hard to believe that the end of July is in sight!  August is right around the corner and the kids will be going back to school soon!  The State Fair is knocking at our door... and Fall will soon follow.  I just hope we get a Fall... highs in the 70s & 80s seem so rare!  WAVE 3 will be at the State Fair on Tuesday - August 23rd with Clear Channel (84 WHAS Radio) so mark you calendars.

THIS WEEK
Finally a break from the oppressive heat & humidity.  With northerly winds we were treated to lower levels of both... unfortunately it's not going to last long.  The pattern with high pressure moving in will bring the return flow of southerly winds back into the region later this week... increasing both the heat & humidity and thereby generating a few scattered storms. 
 
  


LONG RANGE
You may have noticed the previous post.  I think we're stuck in this pattern for another month of longer where we have extended periods of very warm, above normal temperatures.  As the high pressure moves east we feed back in the moisture needed for the scattered storms.  The models try to build a ridge out west and warm up the west coast.  This would allow for stormy weather to invade the Ohio Valley more frequently - I'm not sure we'll be that close to the edge of the ridge.  The alternative is under the ridge with the hotter temperatures.  I say the temperatures average well above normal through August into September and a pattern transition will be attempted at the end of that period.  This means get used to the hot weather I think it's here to stay for another month or so.

DAINTY
I had the chance to make my way to Schnitzelburg this evening for the 41st Annual Dainty Festival.  Street games kept children busy and out of trouble back in the day - and in shape might I add.  The tradition came over from Germany in the mid-1800s.  George Hauk started the Dainty Festival 41 years ago and is among those responsible for keeping the tradition alive.  This event celebrates Louisville's immigrant roots & preserves a sense of community as thousands gather to see who can hit the Dainty the farthest.  Players use a broom handle or other similar stick to flip a peg off the ground, and then swat the peg in mid-air.  Whoever's peg flies the farthest wins.  It's my understanding that Jerry Clark tookaway the honors this year hitting the peg 93 feet.  You may recall that back around 2005 John Belski won hitting the peg over 100 feet.  It was a fun time with a lot of great folks... it's held on the last Monday every July. 
Pictured below: Me with Mr. George Hauk.  Barry Berson 2010 Dainty World Champion

August Thoughts

I hope everyone is enjoying the somewhat lower humidity in the area.  Dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70 certainly do at least feel better than dewpoints in the upper 70s and low 80s!

Overall the next few days look quiet and sunny. 

The heat will really kick back in Thursday/Friday as a warm front moves through.  Humidity values will increase as well.  I still think dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s are possible so I would not rule out more advisories/warnings for heat later this week.

Hmmm wonder if this heat will stick around for the KY State Fair in a few weeks?? :)

 

 

The weekend will feature a fairly decent shortwave that will provide us a round of showers storms.  I marked it on the vorticity maps below from the GFS.

Friday Night                                           Saturday                                         Saturday Night

                                                


By Sunday, the ridge of high pressure to our west should regain its spot in our area and ease the rain threat and increase the heat...again.

 

There has been lots of talk about an "August Reversal" of temperatures.  Most of this is coming from the long range models of the EURO/GFS.  They keep suggesting that the dominant high pressure over the Plains this summer will slide westward toward the Rockies.

 

Such a change would put us into a NW flow with cooler temps/storms. 

However, I am not completely sold on that idea.  Summer high pressures are hard to beat down once they get going.

TAKING A GOODE GUESS: I do think the high pressure could retrograde to the west some, but I think we will see the same ol issue for us.  We will be on the eastern edge of this strong high. I think there will be days in August where we will see low 90s ...and every so often..periods of storms.  We could see a MCS (mesoscale convective systems) pattern in which strong storms would be a day and night threat from time to time.  I don't see this as a cool pattern.  The "cool" weather would come from the clouds/storms that we could experience.  Before I jump onto the "cool and dry" forecast that the models hint at---I would want to see more data.  That change just isn't a normal occurrence for August.  Then again, what has been normal about 2011?

For what it is worth, here is the CPC's (Climate Prediction Center) outlook for August.  Granted, this was the same office that said this summer would be a cool one for us.

AUGUST TEMPERATURES

 

AUGUST PRECIPITATION

 

Another Heat Wave?

A weak cold front is moving through today.  It will not have a major impact on our temperatures, but it will drop the humidity a little for tomorrow and Wednesday.   Our dew points today are in the 70s; however, they will be dropping to the 60s tomorrow and Wednesday.

 

Highs are still expected to be above normal and continue to increase as the work week progresses.  Our normal high for this time of year is 88 degrees.  We've had highs in the 90s for the past 8 days, and today will likely be no exception.  We have a slight chance of a storm today before 5pm as the cold front presses through, then the clouds will clear tonight.