Gloomy day for some...sunny for others. Location Location Location. That has been the key on high temps today so far. 50s mostly north and east of Louisville. Lots of 60s elsewhere.
We are still on the edge of the cloud cover. It will hang pretty much where it is now...and slowly slide to the east tonight. As the pressure gradient of the high to our west and low to the east relaxes some...we should see the winds ease up. Especially after sunset.
Then on to the weekend.
The upper low looks like it will SLOWLY drift to the east on Saturday. This means we once again could see clouds east...sun west. This will once again play games with the highs but generally it will be about 2-4 degrees cooler tomorrow than today all around.
This leads to Saturday night. Right now, the GFS/NAM both suggest the low will drift far enough east that the winds should drop below 8 mph and skies would be clear. You have to have calm winds and clear skies for frost to form when temps drop into the 30s. So the sheltered areas around town have the best chance to drop even lower than 8 mph to near calm levels. Hence the "patchy frost" wording. I don't see this being a widespread frost issue due to the light wind risk and some clouds east. But Lauren and Andy can get a better handle on that tomorrow.
Sunday...the low wants to retrograde back west. It is cutoff from the flow. Haven't we heard this before. Sigh. Anyway, the NAM keeps trucking it east..GFS and EURO try to bring it back west some. Right now, I like the east movement but cutoff upper lows have a mind of their own. We will trend that.
Monday, GFS still shows it fairly close by. I think we will stay dry during this period...but the warmup may be more modest. Rising slowly.
After the low moves out...a strong high will take over. It will be a slow moving high so temps will increase a few degrees each day. It will be an absolute beautiful stretch of sunny skies with warm afternoons and chilly nights. The way fall is supposed to be. But look to the west. Hmmm something approaching.
That "something" looks to be a pretty strong front. The GFS suggests it will plow into the region next weekend.
EURO hints it will become yet ANOTHER cutoff low near the midwest. Just too early to tell on that one...and frankly, we need to just focus on the nice weather coming our way.