Weather Blog

Frosty Talk! Friday Edition

Gloomy day for some...sunny for others.  Location Location Location. That has been the key on high temps today so far.  50s mostly north and east of Louisville.  Lots of 60s elsewhere.

 

We are still on the edge of the cloud cover. It will hang pretty much where it is now...and slowly slide to the east tonight. As the pressure gradient of the high to our west and low to the east relaxes some...we should see the winds ease up.  Especially after sunset.

Then on to the weekend.

The upper low looks like it will SLOWLY drift to the east on Saturday.  This means we once again could see clouds east...sun west.  This will once again play games with the highs but generally it will be about 2-4 degrees cooler tomorrow than today all around.

 

This leads to Saturday night.  Right now, the GFS/NAM both suggest the low will drift far enough east that the winds should drop below 8 mph and skies would be clear.  You have to have calm winds and clear skies for frost to form when temps drop into the 30s.  So the sheltered areas around town have the best chance to drop even lower than 8 mph to near calm levels. Hence the "patchy frost" wording.  I don't see this being a widespread frost issue due to the light wind risk and some clouds east.  But  Lauren and Andy can get a better handle on that tomorrow.

 

Sunday...the low wants to retrograde back west.  It is cutoff from the flow.  Haven't we heard this before. Sigh.  Anyway, the NAM keeps trucking it east..GFS and EURO try to bring it back west some.  Right now, I like the east movement but cutoff upper lows have a mind of their own.  We will trend that.

 

Monday, GFS still shows it fairly close by.  I think we will stay dry during this period...but the warmup may be more modest.  Rising slowly.

 

After the low moves out...a strong high will take over.  It will be a slow moving high so temps will increase a few degrees each day.  It will be an absolute beautiful stretch of sunny skies with warm afternoons and chilly nights. The way fall is supposed to be.   But look to the west.  Hmmm something approaching.

 

That "something" looks to be a pretty strong front.  The GFS suggests it will plow into the region next weekend. 

 

EURO hints it will become yet ANOTHER cutoff low near the midwest.  Just too early to tell on that one...and frankly, we need to just focus on the nice weather coming our way.

Enjoy it!

Much Cooler this Weekend

A cold front has moved through Kentuckiana, and now we'll have much cooler air blowing in from the northwest during the weekend.  This will bring in much cooler temperatures.  In fact, overnight lows will be the coolest since the week after Derby!  Because of these cool temperatures, we could see patchy frost in the suburbs and outside of Louisville on Sunday morning, perhaps even on Saturday morning in Southern Indiana.  Look how the cold air rushes in on Saturday and Sunday morning.

 
 

We may see some frost here in Kentuckiana, but that's nothing compared to the forecast just to our east.  The Appalachian Mountains in West Virginia could get some SNOW over the weekend!  Maybe even a few inches!

 

Ever been smacked by a cold front?

Before I get to the weekend...do want to at least mention this evening.

Not a high storm threat, but not 0% either.  Let me explain.

We have temps now in the upper 70s to upper 80s in west KY!!

 

There is some very modest instability trying to flow in ahead of the front, but overall...very low. 

 

But here is the kick, the wind shear.  It is pretty bullish to our west/northwest. 

 

So even with dewpoints in the 50s (yes, you can get severe weather with dewpoints in the 50s) the wind shear could be enough for even a hefty shower to produce some strong winds.  So not a typical severe setup...and I do think this will be isolated when it comes to those high wind gusts.  Just giving a heads up for those of you esp. in southern Indiana this evening.

Timing? Well the HRRR model seems to be the most aggressive with this line of showers (storms?).

Click below for large view.

6PM  line forms          7Pm   bearing down on southern IN           8PM  arrives in LOU

                                                        


So overall our 6-10pm still looks good for a brief shower/storm.  Again, the high wind gusts with these showers are the main concern.

SPC keeps the SLIGHT risk for severe weather to our north...and I think that makes sense right now...but I think anyone along the line has a risk for a brief warning.

 

After the front passes, we have to deal with the upper low attached to it.  This is where location will be key tomorrow.  Some of you will see gusty winds, clouds, few showers with temps in the 50s all day.  Some of you will see hints of sunshine, breezy and low to mid 60s.  Here is the map Friday PM.

 

Right now, it appears the best chance for the rainy/50s will be NE of Louisville.  The sunnier 60s will be to our southwest.  Louisville? Right in the middle so it will be a tough forecast for the city itself.

This certainly has bust potential when it comes to highs tomorrow and rain/clouds.  We could hit our high in the 60s at midnight...then fall into 50s in the afternoon.

The winds tomorrow..ugh...20-30 mph so it may feel quite chilly if it stays cloudy over house.  Good snuggle buddy weather :)

I am so glad mom sent me home yesterday with a pot of chili. Thank you mom!!!

The weekend still looks dry and cool.  60s in the day... 30s at night.

We will then see a modest warm up next week back into the 70s and 80s.

LOOKING AHEAD:
The NAO is turning sharping negative by mid October. 

 

 NAO, for those of you that don't know, it an index we use on determining blocking weather patterns.  This means we could see another dip in the jet stream over the NE US or perhaps  (gasp) another cutoff low? 

I am still working on my winter forecast.  I am 80% done.  A date will be announced soon :)

BOTS!

(9/29) Indiana Tornado Confirmed

According to the National Weather Service in Indianapolis...

A small brief tornado occurred in northwest Jennings County early Monday morning, September 26.  The tornado began at approximately 12:33 AM EDT around 6 miles west of North Vernon along County Road 700 West between County Roads 150 North and 300 North.  The tornado destroyed a pole barn and damaged 2 homes before lifting around 12:34 AM EDT.  The path was approximately a half mile long and 75 yards wide.  Based on the damage, the tornado was rated an EF1 on the Enhanced Fujita scale with winds estimated near 100 mph. 

This same storm also produced straight line wind damage, knocking down trees, near St. Paul in northwest Decatur County at 12:55 AM EDT and also golf ball size hail in New Castle around 1:30 AM EDT. 

What a Difference a Day Will Make

Today will be the warmest day of the week, so take advantage of it.  The slightly above normal temperatures will be a once-and-done in the forecast as the mercury falls behind a cold front moving in tonight.

 

This cold front is going to bring the coolest temperatures of the season so far with highs only reaching the mid 60s in Louisville for the weekend.  Over night lows could fall to the upper 30s outside the city which would bring some patchy FROST to the viewing area! 

We aren't expecting much in the way of precipitation with this cold front (I think we used up all the atmospheric moisture Sunday night-Monday morning).  If you see any rain from this front, it will most likely be after 6pm but before 10pm.   The rain that this front will produce will be very hit or miss... especially miss, but you'll probably notice the winds picking up tonight as it pushes through.  We don't have a risk of severe weather tonight, but there is a slight risk just to the northeast of us... mainly for damaging winds.

 
 

BUCKLE UP...GET READY FOR A ROLLERCOASTER FORECAST!

THIS AFTERNOON

Here we go again...today feels like yesterday and yesterday feels like the day before that. We can't seem to break this gloomy pattern. The culprit? An area of low pressure to our North and East that's influenced our weather pattern for nearly a week. This upper level disturbance will continue to bring us mostly cloudy skies this afternoon with isolated showers possible. A few peeks of sun can't be ruled out especially the farther South you go of the metro area. Any sunshine we see will help warm us to near 72 degrees this afternoon.

 

TONIGHT

Once again our forecast will be dependent on that stubborn low. Mainly cloudy skies will persist and much like this afternoon, a shot at a few isolated showers can't be ruled out this evening. Temperatures will slowly settle into the mid 50's for most of Kentuckiana. Areas that clear could be a few degrees cooler.

 

LOOKING AHEAD

Finally a break in this monotonous pattern arrives tomorrow, only to see another cold front inch closer to the Ohio Valley by tomorrow evening. What will this front mean for us? Well, let’s talk...Typically ahead of a cold front temperatures tend to warm...and as of now, this will be no exception as we head into tomorrow. Temperatures will jump a handful of degrees tomorrow as rain chances increase into the evening hours. Latest model data suggests dew point readings will increase into the 60's which leads me to believe that an unstable atmosphere is likely to develop. Does this mean widespread showers and storms? No, but I do think that rain will develop and thunderstorms are possible, too. Any storm that does develop ahead or along this frontal boundary will have the potential to turn strong or severe. In my opinion, areas around Cincinnati stand the best chance to see any strong or severe storms. Of course this is all depends on how much sun we see tomorrow in addition to how high dew points climb. I'd make sure to check back with us this evening and again tomorrow for the latest.

Not only will this cold front bring us wet weather, but it will also influence temperatures across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. A drastic drop in temperatures is to be expected in the coming days. And by drastic we're talking possible FROST! Yes, that would mean 30's folks...as I said, buckle up and enjoy the ride. :)

We'll have more this evening on Wave 3 news at 5, 5:30, 6, and 7. See you then!

Feeling Like Fall, But Not Looking Like It

The cool morning temperatures get me looking forward to "real" fall weather.  You know, the kind of weather where you have to put a jacket on and check the pockets for gloves.  It's definitely going to feel cooler this weekend as a cold front moves through Thursday night.  Expect Friday and Saturday afternoon temperatures to only reach the 60s, and overnight lows will be in the 40s (with some upper 30s outside the city).

 

                                                                                                                        Cherokee Park in Louisville

There's just something about autumn that makes me happy.  I can't explain it.  But it doesn't really seem like fall until it starts looking like fall once the leaves start to turn.  Do you want to know why leaves change color in the fall?  Here's a link that explains it very well: http://www.sciencemadesimple.com/leaves.html

Here in Kentuckiana, we still have green leaves on the trees, and summer is still trying to hang on, but it won't be long until the vibrant colors of Autumn 2011 start to show.  Mid-October is the peak time for fall folliage here, so we still have a little time to wait.

               Iron Bridge near Bowling Green

Cut-off Low = More Rain Tomorrow

I think we're good on rain for now after Sunday night and yesterday morning's downpours.  Here's a map from the NWS of the rain totals reported.  Notice the line of heaviest rain near the Ohio River.  Some locations received over 4"!  At the airport in Louisville, we received 3.36", which will be the official total recorded for that 24 hour period for Louisville.

 

We had just a few isolated showers early this morning in Southern Indiana, but other than that, we're expecting a dry day today.  We may not be so lucky tomorrow though.  We are watching a cut-off low pressure center (a.k.a. closed low) just to the north of us that will hang out for the next couple days. 

 
This low is cut-off from the jet stream, thus the name "cut-off".  The jet stream is the main steering force that moves low pressure systems/storm systems across the country.  However, when a low pressure system isn't located close enough to the jet stream, it can stall out bringing rain to an area for an extended period of time.  The jet stream is located farther north of this cut-off low.

 

The QPF shows the counter clockwise swirl of anticipated rain with this closed low. 

 

We are expecting a pulse of energy to move around the backside of the low tomorrow, which will give the atmosphere enough lift to produce some rain showers tomorrow... especially in the afternoon.

If a warning is issued and nothing is confirmed were the storms severe?

I am using a twist from the phrase if a tree falls in the forest and no one is there to hear it does it make a sound? Last night 4 separate tornado warnings were issued for Grayson county. To my knowledge nothing was confirmed. This is not to question whether or not the NWS should have issued the warnings. They have procedures and guidelines to follow based on possible radar signatures and those were followed. These storms were elevated in  nature which often results in the stronger winds staying above the surface. Fortunately it appears that is what happened last night. But, give us your opinion.. If a warning is issued and no severe weather is confirmed at the ground were the storms severe?

In other weather, looks like the D word (drought) is no longer needed. This rain pretty much covered everyone with Eastern Kentucky seeing it today. While clearly not as hot as it was last September we are ending the dryness just as we did last October.

And, in other weather, a real autumn air mass comes in this weekend. Saturday may not get much above 60 with sunshine and watch for some 30's Saturday night north and east of Louisville. Not quite ready to go frost yet, but this would be a week to 10 days earlier than normal.

And in other other weather, I will start to research the winter this week. Totally open mind and will look at all the data unbiased and come up with an outlook in a few weeks. For grins I wanted to present my summer outlook and the eventual results... feel pretty good about this one.

My predicted map of summer 2011

  

 

Actual departures summer of 2011

 

(9/26) RAIN... Lots of it

  
HIGH WATER PROBLEMS
Heavy rain fell during the overnight hours.  Some of the low lying areas flooded and a few drivers that attempted to cross stalled.  Louisville Fire & Rescue came to help.  Thanks to Greg for sending the pictures who said, "This was taken at 2:45 a.m. at 15th & Breckenridge Louisville Fire & Rescue was there to help get the people out of the vehicle."

HEAVY RAIN
Rain totals exceeded three inches in some places through the overnight hours. 
Check out these weekend rain totals from MSD...

Sep 24, 11 12:00 AM to Sep 26, 11 04:00 AM
ID	Site		Rainfall Total (inches)
TR01	D. R. Guthrie WQTC		3.78
TR02	PRP Fire Station Training Facility		4.48
TR03	Shively PS		3.93
TR04	Morris Forman WQTC		3.98
TR05	Beargrass Creek PS		3.54
TR06	Hite Creek WQTC		1.57
TR07	Floyds fork WQTC		0.91
TR08	Fern Creek Fire Station #3		0.70
TR09	Cedar Creek WQTC		0.78
TR10	Camp Horine (Jefferson Co. Forest)		2.14
TR11	Northern Ditch PS		2.54
TR12	Nightingale PS		2.95
TR13	St. Matthews Elementary School		2.10
TR14	Lea Ann Way PS		1.88
TR15	Jeffersontown WQTC		0.85
TR17	Mt. St. Francis		0.96
TR18	IVY Tech		1.92
TR19	Fairdale High School		2.42