Weather Blog

(9/26) WATCH and SEE

Surface analysis shows a low centered over central Indiana... with substantial pressure falls due to warm air advection and deepening system aloft.  Widespread rain and storms will continue ahead of the slow moving cold front and north of a diffuse warm front.

Modified model soundings for current surface conditions indicate a stable surface layer generally north of the Ohio River, but warmer temperatures with 70s existed farther south along an axis from central Kentucky to Mississippi.   

Marginal instability, but very strong shear profiles will remain overnight ahead of the cold front now from southern Indiana into western Tennessee.  With the warmer temperatures generally south of the Ohio River... some storms may be capable of transporting downward momentum resulting in strong to severe wind gusts.  Any tornado threat appears to be maximized now in proximity to the deepening low and should generally wane with time.  If storms over Tennessee, Kentucky & Ohio can persist overnight and develop better structure, such as bows... a WATCH may be considered.

HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS LIKELY

THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON

A few scattered showers and isolated storms are possible throughout the remainder of the morning hours and into this afternoon. The heaviest rain will stay North and West of the metro area as it continues to curl around and area of low pressure and track more due North. Detached showers/isolated storms from the main batch of rain are likely to affect parts of Western and Central Kentucky this afternoon. Temperatures West of I-65 will remain in the 60's while temperatures East of I-65 will top out in the mid 70's. If we see the clouds break this afternoon some areas could reach closer to 80 degrees. Not only will any sun warm us quickly but it will also add fuel to the fire and help the development of thunderstorms. Should we stay mainly cloudy the threat of thunderstorms won't be as significant.

THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT

Sunshine will play a critical role in our forecast today. If storms start to develop this evening (lets say anytime after 6pm) some could turn strong to severe with the main threat being small hail and gusty winds. Either way, I expect heavy rain to develop and become more widespread anytime after 6pm. I'm looking at a timeframe of 6pm-2am for the heaviest rain and storms in and around Kentuckiana. When everything is said and done by tomorrow late morning rain totals could range from 1-3" with isolated higher totals in Western Kentucky. This forecast will change hourly depending on the track of the low and sunshine...so make sure to stay with WAVE 3 news on air and online. You can also join me on facebook: Lauren Jones or twitter: LaurenWave3News.

Have a great day!

Upper low continues

Well, back after a few weeks of R and R. We have a few storms this evening just NW of the forecast area in Sw Indiana. I expect them to weaken overnight. But. more widespreasd rain with embedded thunder develops Sunday to the west. Widespread 1/4 to 1/2 inch rains are possible later Sunday. The upper low to the north may take until the middle of the week to totally clear the region. After it does, some legitimate pleasant fall weather SHOULD develop.

STUBBORN LOW MEANS PESKY SHOWERS & STORMS

Happy Weekend, everyone! Day two of Fall...and it has felt and looked every bit of Autumn for the second day in a row. Early morning showers will persist this afternoon and evening as an area of low pressure tracks closer to Kentuckiana.

THIS AFTERNOON

Good news and bad news. Let’s start with the good news first...I'm a positive person. :) It will NOT be a wash out. There will be dry time this afternoon. It will be hard to predict who will or won't get wet as these showers/isolated storms will be on a spotty basis. Now the bad news...any shower or storm that does develop will likely have heavy rain at times, perhaps small hail, and gusty winds. Not too bad, right? Severe threat looks slim to none today. Mostly cloudy skies will persist as temperatures warm to near 70 degrees for day time highs.

TONIGHT

Pretty much a carbon copy of today. There will be a chance for some showers, isolated storms, and temps will dip into the mid to upper 50's. Again...heavy rain is possible with any shower/storm that develops.

TOMORROW

Welcome to Kentuckiana! Like the saying goes...if you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes and it will change. This will be true of tomorrow's forecast...in fact, tomorrow will be a bit tricky to nail things down with 100% accuracy...but I'll do my best. The reason for all of the rain is a cut off low that is positioned North of us as this time. It's cut off from the main jet stream...pretty much doing its own thing. This is important because depending on its exact movement, our weather forecast could change drastically. One thing is certain is that the area of low pressure will retrograde...meaning it will move backwards. How FAR backwards will be a deciding factor in our weather forecast...rain/storm chances, and how warm we'll get tomorrow. We will see showers and storms throughout the day tomorrow but the best chance for widespread rain/storms will arrive Sunday night into Monday. Should any severe weather develop the best chance will be during this time frame. Cold air aloft could produce thunderstorms will small hail and gusty winds.  The track of the low will also influence our temperature tomorrow. It's possible some areas will top out near 80 (again...depending on the direction the low moves) while other areas will stay around 70. I know that's a lot to throw at you, but needless to say...check back with us. This will be an ever changing forecast and in all honesty my confidence is a bit lower than most forecasts I do. It’s difficult to predict storms like this that affect such a large area of real estate… So stay with us! We'll keep you updated.

Welcome to FALL!

The Autumnal Equinox took place this morning  just after 5am.  This is when the main sunbeam crosses the equator.

As you may have seen on our facebook or on the Sunrise show, I challenged man of you to try and balance an egg on this day.  Saying goes, you can only balance a raw egg on this day...(first day of fall/spring). 

One of our viewers, Brandy Neuman, posted this pic on our page.

But is that really true? No.  Just a folklore that actually started with the Chinese.  They saw eggs as a sign of spring...(re-birth) if you will, of life.  But it came to be known that gravitational pull of the earths poles on this would cause the egg to stay straight up.  But they forgot the exact SAME setup takes place in the Fall too :)  But still, it is a fun thing to do on these days.  I still remember when I saw John Belski do it on TV in 1988 and I tried it at home. I busted a whole carton in my attempts.

Weather is very fall-like today with steady rains leading t o amounts of .45-.85" in spots.  That was a GREAT soaking of rain for us.  We needed that.

We may see some breaks in the clouds this afternoon...that will us rise into the 60s.  The more sun we get...warmer we will go so 70 isn't out of the question.

 

Looks dry tonight and if the winds stay light enough..and partly cloudy skies remain---dense fog could be a big issue.

Then we have to deal with this upper low over the weekend.

The NAM/GFS agreeing better that it will center itself over IL.  That is good/bad. 

 

GOOD: means 50s/low 60s for highs are not as likely.  More chances for a few breaks in the clouds

BAD: we will be a strong SW flow.  Lots of moisture..so cumulus clouds would redevelop over/over.  Any sunshine would lead to thunderstorms with hail/damage winds...and even isolated tornadoes. 

Not a huge severe weather outbreak threat, but a few warnings cannot be ruled out...esp Sun/Mon when the flow on the SE side of this upper low is at its strongest. 

 

 

Heavy rains could also "train" themselves if the low does not move.  We could easily see 1-3" amounts...so we will have to watch that.  Where that bands sets up will be key...and we cannot forecast that location this early.

 

The low still looks to scoot to our east by Tue/Wed to allow sunshine and warmer temps.

Overall, the weekend forecast is a challenge...and many adjustments still will have to be made. So make sure to watch Kevin/Lauren this evening and Lauren/Andy will have updates over the weekend.

But the forecast as mentioned above is the best we can figure out right now at this stage.

The Sky Is Falling!! Oh look, a twix...

Lots of talk about the space junk..aka UARS (upper atmosphere research satellite).

Here is the latest path of its orbit...notice it mostly tracks to our north/east. 

 
NASA and the Dept of Defense are still trying to nail down a timing of re-entry and impact zone.  Odds remain at 1 in 22 trillion you will make headlines of it hitting you. 

The cool thing about this..if it enters at night...it will create a huge fireball in the sky.  That, I'm sure, has star gazers excited.

Back here in the troposphere, we are tracking some dense fog in spots this morning.  Doesn't appear widespread from what I can see on observations/cams...but keep us posted if you have fog where you are.

Looks like overall today will be nice....we do have a chance to reach 80 again before clouds take over this afternoon.  It will be a race with the thermometer and the clouds.  Still....mid 70s won't be bad.

Rain chances go way up tonight.  A strong piece of energy will line itself up right along the Ohio River later tonight and early Friday.  A band of steady rains is expected.

 

Friday afternoon looks drier...but the weekend will still feature that upper low.  The models did shift on the location of it with the morning model runs.

NAM: further west ...much further west.  Which will mean more clouds/showers

 

GFS: it is a tad west...but still east than the NAM.  But this shift also would mean more rain/clouds.

 

Either way, rain chances look higher for the weekend than they did yesterday. 

We will keep you posted as the models keep shifting back/forth some.  Just plan for rain this weekend either way and hope it remains spotty.

 

Facebook May Have Changed, But The Weather Hasn't...

At least everyone has been complaining about facebook and now about the weather as much today. :)

Overall not a bad later afternoon.  Cold front is about to move through, but the best moisture is to our east.  Still cannot rule out a pop up shower/storm as the front passes through this evening.

 
Looks like a quiet night tonight.  And overall, Thursday will be too with some sunshine and highs well into the 70s.

It will be late Thursday night and early Friday that we will start to feel the wacky "upper low". 

A band of shower/storms? may form right over us during the overnight. 

 

I think another dry period is likely late Friday into Friday night.

However, the low is sinks close to us on Saturday.  The models have kept us mostly on the edge of this upper low.  Placement is key.  If we can stay in the edge---we could get some breaks in the clouds.  If it is right over us, the low stratus clouds will keep it gloomy.  Just will have to trend that when we get closer.

 

Sunday afternoon, low still nearby.  Rain/cloud threat remain.

 

Monday...it finally begins to head east.  Slowly.

 

After that, high pressure takes over the east. I think it will be fairly cool at the start with the east winds, but we will eventually tap into a south wind and see a warm up toward October.  I think that will last for a bit as we move into a mild pattern with a severe storm threat increase with some strong cold fronts moving through in October.

 

Hopefully October means more sunshine than clouds unlike September.  I need dry weather for all the haunted housing I plan to do!!

 

Episode II Attack of the Clones...I mean upper lows

If you are a sci-fi geek like myself, you hopefully got the title :)

I will get into what that title means in a second.

First off, we have to nail down the end of the week and weekend forecast.  Both look wet and cool.

Two issues we are facing in the coming days.  A cold front, and an upper level low.

COLD FRONT:

It is still to our northwest right now.  Some of us are enjoying some sunshine but you can see clouds are still pretty dominant.  The reason they are is the southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico right now...keep that moisture hanging over us.

 

Which is likely to happen is that southerly flow will pick up late tonight as the front approaches.  I think our best shot of rain/storms will be early in the day vs later.  We will have to keep an eye on any shower/storm development late tonight in TN.

 

It will then surge north ahead of the front during the morning. Likely along and east of I 65.

 

The front clears the region to make way for a decent late Wednesday into Thursday..but an upper level low is sinking in from the north during this time...increasing the flow from the west.

 

UPPER LEVEL LOW:
This low has been showing up in the models for nearly 2 weeks now.  The problem has been determining where it will set up shop.  Cutoff lows are just that...cutoff from the main flow.  We had one just a couple weeks ago with the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee.  Remember those non stop cloudy cool days?? Ya, same type of deal here. 

We will see the first effects of the this low on Friday.  That is when a band of showers and perhaps storms will fire up right over us.

 

By Saturday, the low sinks further south toward us.  This likely will keep us cloudy and cool.  Showers will be hit/miss. 

 

Sunday, the low is STILL near us.  The threat for clouds/showers will remind.

 

Monday, ummm yes.  Low still there but at least will be FINALLY moving to the east at this point.  So we should have a higher chance for sunshine and lesser chance for showers.

 

I wouldn't cancel your outdoor plans this weekend, but be aware that if the low clouds from this low stay in tact all day...our highs will likely avg 58-63.  Any hints of sunshine will obviously allow is to warm higher than that.....but that doesn't look to be a widespread issue right now.  Shower will be possible at any point with this low...but drizzle is more likely.

AFTER THE LOW SAYS BYE BYE:

Once the upper level low moves to our east--I think the end of the month into early October will be warm.  We could even make a run for 90 again.  But having such a pattern is leaving the U-S open to tropical systems.

 

One could move in from the SW U-S...into the Rockies.  A rare move more common with January than September.  But I am sure they will take the rain.

The other...which is more important to us...would be a storm from the Gulf that could head toward the SE.  Would it reach us? Too early to know.  This would be around the 4-7 of October it appears.

I continue to see signs of a warm October with a severe weather threat..and a turn to cold in November that may last.  I am still working on my winter forecast.  I hope to have it done in October.  I will let you know when in advance :)

Dry Today... Rain Chances Tomorrow

We get a break from the rain today, which we deserve after 0.53" yesterday.  We do have a chance of rain tomorrow, even a slight chance of a thunderstorm.  This is rain along another cold front that will move through tomorrow. 

WEDNESDAY

Until 6am:  20% chance

6am - 10am:  40% chance

10am - 4pm:  30% chance

4pm - 8pm:  20% chance

8pm - overnight:  clearing skies

(9/19) Space Junk

SPACE JUNK
from NASA

NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite, or UARS, is expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere later this week, almost six years after the end of a productive scientific life. Although the spacecraft will break into pieces during re-entry, not all of it will burn up in the atmosphere.

The risk to public safety or property is extremely small, and safety is NASA's top priority. Since the beginning of the Space Age in the late-1950s, there have been no confirmed reports of an injury resulting from re-entering space objects. Nor is there a record of significant property damage resulting from a satellite re-entry.


It is too early to say exactly when UARS will re-enter and what geographic area may be affected.

The actual date of re-entry is difficult to predict because it depends on solar flux and the spacecraft's orientation as its orbit decays. As re-entry draws closer, predictions on the date will become more reliable.

As of Sept. 19, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 130 mi by 143 mi (210 km by 230 km). Re-entry is expected Sept. 23, plus or minus a day.  It is impossible to pinpoint just where in that zone the debris will land, but NASA estimates the debris footprint will be about 500 miles long.

If you find something you think may be a piece of UARS, do not touch it. Contact a local law enforcement official for assistance.