1) Halloween Outlook
2) Next Cutoff Low
3) Pattern Change for next week...maybe two
4) Will it last?
Happy Halloween Everyone!
If you have plans tonight:
In the past, we have had some weather extremes on this date. The NWS in Louisville put together a nice chart showing our past Halloween weather conditions. Note the snow in 1993. We had a track on Halloween, but alittle over 2" the day before on the 30th. I think most of us remember that one :)
CUT OFF LOW:
Once again, we could be facing a cutoff low setup. I don't think it will linger as long as the earlier ones this Fall have been, but still a slow mover. (Note: it will be interesting to see if this keeps taking place this upcoming winter too).
The low moves in to the Plains Wednesday. For us, a nice south flow ahead of it. Could reach 7o with that south flow as well.
Then the low arrives into Thurs AM...and deepens to our west. Any storm threat looks elevated as the worst of any severe storm threat will be south of that red line..that is south of us.
The low weakens some as it moves over us...and gets cutoff from the main jetstream flow.
Some of the models try to to a top/down cooling, but I don't see any concern with frozen precip at all. Looks chilly with the low, but nothing extreme. Highs in the 50s.
The low then moves to the southeast and fads. How quickly will determine how Friday will turn out. So we will have to make some gradual adjustments there.
PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK
Looks like will start to see a trend in which the low pressures will form in the Plains then cut toward the Great Lakes. This means a warmer and at times, stormier pattern.
The first low moves in early next week (sun/mon). Could see a band of shower/storms, but the storm will be "occluding" or wrapping up in Canada...so the "push" that front will have ...will be fading. We'll watch it though.
Once that front passes..it looks to becoming horizontal and return northward as a warm from as a new low develops in TX. This will produce some rain around Tue or so..as the warm push from the south begins.
By next Thursday, this low deepens pretty good (this is long range of course...so just purely going verbatium by the model) and moves it to our west and north. Such a storm track would put us at risk for a thunderstorm event. Again..around the 1oth.
There could be a similar storm just after that by the weekend of the 12th.
It looks like that while the storm track has been mostly from TX to the Great Lakes, the cold air has been allowed to build. Signs are still there that the cold air being lodged to our north will drop south/east as we head toward the last week or so of November.
Similar to last year in fact. Hmm.
I know I just threat out a lot of what iff's with the models since I went pretty far out, so just know I am just giving you an early preview to the pattern. The details are still way vague.
So why show at all? I think it supports the idea that we are going to enter a warmer/stormier pattern that will then drastically change to colder for the end of November.
We shall see!!
Have a safe and fun Halloween!!