Looks like our interesting weather pattern will continue...
Risk today will just focus on next Monday and Tuesday for now. Beyond that, the pattern becomes quite complicated---but I will touch on it down below.
Nice to see the sun today! We look quiet the next few days until our next system arrives on Sunday.
There will be a nice slug of moisture that will surge into our area at that time. Rain totals could 1-2 inches in spots. This event likely would put us at #2 for the wettest year on record. I am not sure yet it will be enough rainfall to get us to #1. It will be close--- only 1.80" away from it.
Either way, the interesting part if when the cold air catches up with this system.
There is still some debate between the GFS/EURO on how fast the moisture clears the region and the cold air arrives.
GFS- allows cold air to catch up to have the rain end as a period of sleet/snow. Looks fairly brief
EURO- develops a low along this front to our east...this slows and deepens the system. Wintry threat increases if the cold air can wrap around it in time.
So I do think wintry weather is possible Mon/Tue...it will be an issue of duration and intensity. Interesting setup for sure....we'll watch it.
Here are the models so you can see what I am looking at.
GFS:
Monday Evening- cold air catching up to the front...changing it to a brief period of snow/sleet.
Overnight Monday/Tuesday AM- the wintry precip moves into the viewing area
Tuesday PM: few flurries pushing to the east. Drying out otherwise.
EURO
Low pressure by Tuesday develops to our east. Again, slower idea than the GFS on timing, but such development would keep moisture around longer...but the colder air will be slower too.
We'll see how this looks tomorrow.
Beyond this event, this a battle with the models on the idea of Arctic air moving in. The GFS especially has been all about this for the past few days.
It does appear that early next week will be cold, but we should moderate somewhat by the end of next week. The Arctic intrusion would then take place by the next weekend.
But does it aim or us, or southern Plains?
Giving the La Nina pattern, I would be more on the Plains than here locally. That isn't exactly good news either.
Here is why. The cold air is lurking by later next week:
Then the GFS sends it due south. Notice the south wind over us.
Which can be problemmatic about this setup is that it can be warm aloft....but the Arctic air could sneak in at lower levels complicating precipitation types around here. Just a messy thought that makes my hair turn grayer :)
EURO by the way, wants to aim the cold toward us...but not as deep or long lasting.
I am leaning more toward the GFS right now.
NAO is trending netural...but still not negative enough to keep any cold blast around for an extended time.
PNA is trending postivie again...this likely will support more storminess over our area.
December is shaping up to be an active weather month.
I have to drive to Indy next Monday afternoon and back home on Wednesday. All I can say is that it had better wait till I get there and end before I head back lol!
Posted by: Theresa Pate | November 30, 2011 at 06:32 PM
I hope it's actively full of sunshine! Lol
Posted by: Jason | November 30, 2011 at 06:57 PM