Quick update on our next storm.
If you remember the last post, I gave two areas the models were hinting at for the cutoff low. The trend with most of the evening runs has been for the southern track.
Latest NAM is support this the past 2 runs in a row.
GFS trended that way late afternoon and I suspect it will later this evening in the next update.
This means the snow threat initially would be to our south. ARK/TN maybe MS? And for them, just flakes.
We would not get cold enough for snow until the upper low tracked to the NE on Tuesday.
So that seems to be the trend since my last post and they are starting to all agree with each other. That is giving a better confidence to the outlook with this system. This means mostly rain, and maybe mixing with or change to a period of snow at the end. Not a big deal.
Here is the NAM to show as an example: That blue (0) line is the typical rain/snow line. You can see how it forms a circle to our south. SO yes, how frustrating it be to see those to the SOUTH of us see snowflakes and rain here :) Happens a lot it seems.
To compare/contrast, here is the GFS for the same time periods: Similar Monday, tries to pull in colder air as it departs Tuesday.
Still early in the game with this system as cutoff lows are very difficult to track. Mostly because there is NO track. They just "wonder" around. And in a situation where location is key on precip type/amounts---that is nerve wrecking for a meteorologist.
Let's see how things look tomorrow.
As far as rain totals, this will also highly depend on the placement of the low and how long it sticks around. Overall, 1-3" looks to be a risk from Saturday night through Tuesday.
Here is the latest HPC map on their forecast rain totals:
The there is a front with a wave of low pressure riding along it for late week. Still some debate on whether this will be a northern branch feature of the jetstream, or southern...or a combo of both (like the GFS showed last night). Southern branch only would mean mostly a quick shot of light rain that could actually stay south of KY. Northern branch idea would be a shot of snow showers/flurries and cold. And a combo would mean rain to snow...and an interesting setup for us.
Having rambled all of that, here is the latest GFS on the feature: Mostly northern stream focused.
Yet another southern branch feature that will test us on whether or not it will have a cold blast to work with or not.
So yes, a busy pattern for us. We are in a good spot for snow if we can get a combo system (jetstreams phase together). Otherwise, I have a feeling these southern stream systems will just keep "cutting off" and giving us headaches.
Going to be an interesting few weeks ahead.