Busy day today...so will try to type fast.
As far as the snow talk! risks:
Tues-Wed
Next Monday
Next Wed-Thu
Before we to all the crazy snow stuff, a reminder again about the Flood WATCH that is in effect tonight into the early morning.
There is a Flood Warning out for the Rolling Fork at Boston....expected to rise to near 37 feet by morning.
The Ohio River is rising and while both gauges are forecast to stay below flood stage, the McAlpine Upper is forecast into the ACTION STAGE by Thursday of about 21 feet. We'll watch that carefully.
It is snowing hard in west TN where it is sticking pretty good now around in Jackson.
For us tonight, the rain band moving through now will become E/W in direction and lift to our north. This will allow a dry slot to move into the area. Notice the snow to our SOUTH!
By tomorrow morning. We will start to feel more of the effects of the colder side of this upper low. Expect a passing rain/snow shower...but we could end up mostly dry during the day. But I use that term loosely as we may see drizzle/flurries off and on throughout the day.
It will be Tuesday night that things get interesting. It will be the "last gasp" if you will of this low. The back edge. The track of the upper low will be HUGE in determining where this back edge snow band forms.
Right now, the models seem to be in pretty good agreement that it will fall from west KY into S IL and IN. Only clipping Louisville.
Timing of any snow would be midnight tomorrow night through 8am Wednesday.
I drew below where I do think snow will fly from this.
And here is where I think at LEAST an inch could fall.
The NAM model using the BUFKIT system does spit out about .4" for Louisville.
Keep in mind, some of it will melt, but given that it is falling during darkness...I do think there is a decent shot of the car tops/roof tops/grass getting a light coating. Reminds me of Thanksgiving night last year ..and then it was just .10". Not a huge deal, just a light coating. The key is getting the snow band INTO the area. That will be the hardest part of the forecast.
Here is a region map of the NAM:
And GFS:
Again, fairly similar in the track/ideas of this light snow event.
I know for many of you...this is exciting since it would be our first measurable snow of the season. But we still have 24 hours of adjustments to make to keep checking back in. Upper lows are tricky.
After this moves out, we have another storm to deal with.
This one looks to be highly influenced on 2 ideas:
1) when does the low move out of the SW USA?
2) how far south does the trof of low pressure dig this coming Friday.
The models were deeper with this trof a couple of days ago...even hinted at flurries for us. Today however, it is much more shallow and no precip at all.
So we will have to figure that part out...
If it is deeper, the will complicate the next storm moving in from the SW.
Since the models went shallow, they are also taking the low a bit more north for Sun/Mon. Looks like a rain ending as snow deal right now if you take the GFS at face value.
We will have to watch this track carefully in future model runs. It will have quite a bit of moisture with it.
Speaking of, we are now # 3 as far as wettest year ever in Louisville. I think we will make that #1 by early next week.
The next Wed/Thu mention could be a clipper and/or flurries.
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