I am blogging from home today before heading out to play laser tag with Dawne Gee :)
Quick update to the weekend system.
The models are looking better today...but still not in full agreement. The problem? Think of it as having a bowl full of marbles. Then you throw them across the country. They scatter right? Well, different models pick up on different pieces and focus on this one...or that one. That causes a variety of tracks/solutions and huge timing issues as each piece moves at a different rate. This isn't a very organized system as it heads east. Starts off strong...but weakens. So that is the issue and complication.
There are 2 main pieces that we need to focus on. The surface low...and upper low.
Under that upper low...will be a bubble of cold air aloft. It is looking likely that there will not be a strong north wind to feed into this storm. So if there is snow with it, it has to produce its own cold air...aka the bubble "upper low". Wherever that bubble goes...that is where snow can fall. But. And a huge but here (giggle), surface temps could be above freezing. So that will limit anything significant from falling. Not to mention...amounts look light with the upper low.
HPC did a good job yesterday in not flip flopping the track and kept the low in the Ohio Valley region...they still have it there for the weekend. Though a tad north than yesterday.
I think that is a good and likely track right now.
Here are the models:
GFS Sunday--- you can see how the upper low moves over us by the end of the weekend/Monday...but weakens.
EURO-- is the oddball today. It fads the system all together out west...and it disappears off the map. Leaving us mild/dry here. Quite the change from yesterday so I think it needs more time to figure itself out.
CANADIAN- it is another odd ball in the fact it wants to keep the system organized enough to bring a decent rain to snow band in here Sunday. Worth watching as that solution cannot be ignored just yet.
NOGAPS: Similar with the upper low moving over us by Sunday.
So I think most of this system will be rain for us...with a slow transition to snow showers/flurries under the upper low. We just have to nail down the timing of these features...and determine how quickly it weakens. If this system remains in tact further east than forecast, the Canadian model may be onto something.
It is important that we don't react to every model run, but trend them. See which direction they are heading. Don't read too much into the exact track of a certain model run or temperatures. We will still see some adjustments on this. As of right now, I do not see a snow storm from this system. But I do think it is fair to say rain to snow for right now.
Beyond this? Well, imagine how awful the models are doing if they can't even nail down the weekend :) So I won't bother with models for next week.
I will point out the indicies STRONGLY suggest a pattern change for the United States. But what that means for us remains unclear at this time. February is going to be a challenging month.
Here is the AO- Strongly negative...biggest change since October.
PNA- remains positive.
All 3 still indicate a cold pattern for the eastern United States. But La Nina is still influencing our pattern with a strong subtropical jet. The cold air is wanting to blast south. Just a matter of when.