Weather Blog

Snow TALK! Tuesday Edition

I am blogging from home today before heading out to play laser tag with Dawne Gee :)

Quick update to the weekend system.

The models are looking better today...but still not in full agreement.  The problem? Think of it as having a bowl full of marbles.  Then you throw them across the country.  They scatter right?  Well, different models pick up on different pieces and focus on this one...or that one.  That causes a variety of tracks/solutions and huge timing issues as each piece moves at a different rate.  This isn't a very organized system as it heads east.  Starts off strong...but weakens.  So that is the issue and complication.

There are 2 main pieces that we need to focus on. The surface low...and upper low.

 

Under that upper low...will be a bubble of cold air aloft.  It is looking likely that there will not be a strong north wind to feed into this storm.  So if there is snow with it, it has to produce its own cold air...aka the bubble "upper low".  Wherever that bubble goes...that is where snow can fall.  But.  And a huge but here (giggle), surface temps could be above freezing. So that will limit anything significant from falling.  Not to mention...amounts look light with the upper low.

HPC did a good job yesterday in not flip flopping the track and kept the low in the Ohio Valley region...they still have it there for the weekend.  Though a tad north than yesterday.

 I think that is a good and likely track right now.

Here are the models:

GFS Friday

 

 

GFS Saturday

 

GFS  Sunday--- you can see how the upper low moves over us by the end of the weekend/Monday...but weakens.

EURO-- is the oddball today. It fads the system all together out west...and it disappears off the map. Leaving us mild/dry here.  Quite the change from yesterday so I think it needs more time to figure itself out.

 

CANADIAN- it is another odd ball in the fact it wants to keep the system organized enough to bring a decent rain to snow band in here Sunday.  Worth watching as that solution cannot be ignored just yet.

 

NOGAPS: Similar with the upper low moving over us by Sunday.

  So I think most of this system will be rain for us...with a slow transition to snow showers/flurries under the upper low.  We just have to nail down the timing of these features...and determine how quickly it weakens.  If this system remains in tact further east than forecast, the Canadian model may be onto something.

It is important that we don't react to every model run, but trend them.  See which direction they are heading.  Don't read too much into the exact track of a certain model run or temperatures.  We will still see some adjustments on this.  As of right now, I do not see a snow storm from this system.  But I do think it is fair to say rain to snow for right now.

Beyond this?  Well, imagine how awful the models are doing if they can't even nail down the weekend :)  So I won't bother with models for next week.

I will point out the indicies STRONGLY suggest a pattern change for the United States.  But what that means for us remains unclear at this time.  February is going to be a challenging month.

Here is the AO-  Strongly negative...biggest change since October.

NAO-  Mostly neutral...hints at negative.

 

PNA-  remains positive. 

 

 

All 3 still indicate a cold pattern for the eastern United States.  But La Nina is still influencing our pattern with a strong subtropical jet.  The cold air is wanting to blast south.  Just a matter of when.

BOTS!!!

Near Record Highs!

If you get a chance to go outside and enjoy this nice weather... take advantage of it!!!  Even during the evening, the temperatures will be mild, but it might be a little breezy.  We are well on our way to getting very close... possibly breaking... our record high for today.  Our record is 67 degrees set back in 1989.  With a little extra sunshine, we might be able to make a run at that record.  We have warm air advection streaming up from the southwest helping our temperatures to continue their warming trend that kicked off this weekend.

A cold front will move through tomorrow, bringing some rain overnight and tomorrow morning.  It's not out of the question to hear a few rumbles of thunder with this frontal passage, but no severe weather is expected.

Unlike the last cold front the brought the rain, heavy downpours will not be part of this system.  We could pick up a tenth to a quarter of an inch or so in much of the area.

Even behind the cold front, the temperatures stay above normal for the rest of the week.  And for those wondering about the Super Bowl forecast in Indianapolis... right now it looks like mostly cloudy skies with highs in the lower 40s.

RECORD BREAKING HEAT? AND A TRICKY LONG TERM PATTERN

This pattern continues to amaze me as we're about to close out January....WELL  above average. Our lowest temperature of the season thus far has been 17°...yes, 17 degrees. Last year at this time we had already recorded temperatures in the single digits. This unusual warmth continues as we head throughout the week, in fact we're tracking the potential for record breaking heat. I'll be honest, the next several days appear to be clear cut to me, but my confidence on the weekend and thereafter is a bit up in the air. We've said over the last few days the models are having a hard time nailing down the forecast. We base our forecast off of model data, yes, but it's also much more than that. It's pattern trends, changes, climatology, etc. and as we all know this winter has been anything but consistent...so, going forth we'll have to fine tune the forecast. This blog update will be very much circumstantial...what I think over the next few days in addition to what the possibilities may be in the next 4-8 days. So lets get down to business...

First lets start with today. A new week, a new day...and temps once again were well above average. Temperatures hit the upper 50s to low 60s around Kentuckiana...we topped out at 61 here in Louisville. A stiff Southerly wind helped warm us up nicely today...so where is all of the cold air? Well, easily put it's locked in place WELL North of us. We've see quick hits of the harsh Canadian air this winter but the jet stream snaps back into place quickly thereafter and our jabs of winter like air are short lived. As we head throughout the week the cold air will stay in place well North of us which means the warm up continues...and given the atmospheric set up to our West...temperatures are expected to increase.

NEXT FEW DAYS...South of a warm front and East of a cold front, you got it, perfect location for warming conditions. Factor in impressive Southerly winds and an recipe for near record heat arrives tomorrow. Old record of 67°, set back in 1989, will be within reach tomorrow as temperatures will top out in the mid 60s. Southern and Western KY may see temps into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Yes, that's some 20-25 degrees above average as we should be in the low to mid 40s this time of year. As temperatures rise moisture increases as a cold front approaches. Many of you have asked if this means severe weather, and thankfully at this time no. Dew point readings remain in the 40s/50s in addition to low instability and minimal lift. I just don't see the development of storms...so as we head into mid/late week expect scattered showers develop. Mild air will stick around in addition to scattered showers, starting tomorrow evening/overnight.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...Things start to become more uncertain. Yesterdays runs hinted at cut off low bringing arctic air with it while some of today's runs have flipped that completely and bring in much warmer temps...which means rain. I do thing we could have an impressive system develop but I think the timing of the cold air will lag a bit...meaning, the moisture source WILL be there but the cold air WON'T. Again, this is just my early thinking. It's been such an unpredictable Winter that we'll have to wait a few days until we finalize the long range forecast. I do have confidence in colder air arriving next week. Models are picking up on the freezing line remaining South of us meaning colder air invades. At this point we'll need a harsh snap of cold air and a darn good storm track to bust out significant snow. I'm not giving up yet...but it sure has been a disappointing season. Stay tuned...updates over the next few days.

Warm and Windy

It was windy over the weekend, and now we have the warmer temperatures to go along with it.  It appears as if much of the area will be topping out near 60 degrees and warmer this afternoon with a warm southwesterly wind.  Here's a look at the top wind speeds from yesterday from the NWS:

Right now we have a warm front moving over us, so it is keeping the winds up and bringing us warmer temperatures today and tomorrow.  We have been in a warming trend since temperatures bottomed out on Friday.

The warming trend comes to an end late Wednesday as cooler air comes in behind a cold front.  This will also bring some rain Tuesday night and/or Wednesday. 

This doesn't look to be heavy rain like we had last week, but we could pick up a quarter of an inch in much of WAVE Country.

ARE YOU READY FOR A WARM UP? RAIN ON THE HORIZON, TOO

UNUSUAL WEATHER...How crazy is this weather? I came back to Louisville from Indianapolis...and my last few years there were spent covering intense winter storms the last few winters. I knew I'd have to say good-bye to *some* snow moving back to Lousville...but COME ON! :) I can't remember a time when the weather has been this unusual and unpredictable. I just read a stat that said the last 4 out of 5 "non-snowy" winters were followed by unsually hot summers...and at this rate it looks like the tale of three seasons will continue as temperatures soar in the coming days.

TODAY...A quick moving clipper system affected much of central and Northern Indiana today as lingering clouds developed this afternoon especially areas North of the river. The temperature gradient from our Northern counties to our Southern counties were quite distinct as increased cloud cover kept temps in check North of the river while mainly sunny skies helped temps warm to near 60 for our Southern counties. As we look ahead temperatures will continue to rise as winds will shift to the south and remain breezy.

LOOKING AHEAD...As we kick off a new week temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 50s and low 60s. We'll hold onto some sunshine tomorrow as clouds increase throughout the day on Tuesday ahead of our next rain maker. We'll watch a few disturbances that will infuence parts of the Ohio Valley mid to late week as temperatures remain above average. After the rain comes the...say it ain't snow! Some models holding onto the idea of tumbling temps and rain/snow to all snow by this coming weekend. Seems like wishful thinking...but we'll continue to monitor it. Stay tuned!

Snow TALK! Sunday Edition

Simply put...very complicated forecast next week/end.  Expect daily changes.

I will get more into that in second.  First, I do want to mention the high wind potential today.  We do have that clipper passing to our north.  And while we may see some sprinkles/flurries out of it...the wind/clouds will be more noticeable.

Here is the BUFKIT profile from the NAM showing the winds.  You can see the 30-40kt winds just above our heads.  That could translate into gusts up to 40 to 45 mph in spots.  If skies are more partly cloudy than just cloudy, that 45 mph gust could be more reachable as the mix of sunshine/clouds can increase the speeds. (won't get into a science lesson on why :) )

 

 Speaking of wind, it looks to be a fairly windy week over the region as we see a rapid warm-up...and sharp drop later in the week.

The warm-up starts fast on Monday as we climb well into the 50s.  It still appears 60-65 is reachable Tue/Wed as a low passes to our north.  That low could help fire up some showers late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

 

Right now, storm chances look low as the setup isn't there for storms despite the warm temps.

This takes us to the 2nd half of the week.  The complicated part.

Some models suggest we will have a weak low pass by Thursday with a stronger one on Friday/Saturday.  Some say the stronger one will be Thursday into Friday and blah blah. 

This is very problematic as the differences in the above will depend on whether we see heavy rain/storms...or snowfall. 

It has been interesting to read the discussions from the NWS offices as they are struggling as well.  Paducah's especially was interesting as it sounds like they want to side with the colder/snowier idea for the end of the week...but surrounding NWS offices weren't ready to bite yet.  And I get that.  Some of you may not realize that they try to communicate with each other often to make sure the regional forecast looks somewhat uniform.  For example, our norther tier of counties ...Lawrence to Jennings in Indiana...are controlled by the NWS Indy office. Not Louisville.  So that is why sometimes they have advisories for events...and others don't in our area.  But they try to make sure the forecast for you guys up there blends well with the NWS Louisville office.  Doesn't always happen :) But they try. 

Anyway, my point is ...I was glad to see Paducah forecaster be bold in his discussion today.  It is a challenge certainly late week.

Here are some snippets of the discussions regarding late next week:

NWS PADUCAH:
BELIEVE MEX MOS TEMPS/AS WELL AS OUR CURRENT FCST TEMPS/ FOR
FRI NIGHT AND SAT ARE SIGNIFICANTLY TOO WARM. IF SUCH AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN DOES EVOLVE...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN KNOW TO BE 10 DEGREES OR
MORE TOO WARM...AS IT JUST HAS TOO MUCH CLIMATOLOGY WEIGHED IN THAT
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. WILL HALF STEP FOR NOW AND LOWER TEMPS FRI
NIGHT/SAT DOWN AT LEAST CLOSER TO MEX NUMBERS...BUT AGAIN...DUE TO
COORDINATION ISSUES WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WAS LIMITED ON HOW
MUCH I COULD LOWER THEM AT THIS TIME. IF THE PATTERN DOES EVOLVE AND
WE STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW...WE WOULD LIKELY
STAY IN THE 30S AT BEST SAT. TIME WILL TELL.

NWS LOUISVILLE:
Thursday through Saturday are a mess in the model data.  Inkling
right now is that Thursday may be dry as we sit between systems,
but given the Euro`s strong precipitation signal and in attempting
to blend with surrounding offices, will need to hang on to a small
POP.
Thursday night into Saturday a deep upper trof will dig into the
eastern U.S. and will bring chances of light, spotty precipitation
Thursday night into the weekend.  Most of the precip should be in
the form of rain, though some snow could mix in late Friday night
into Saturday morning.

NWS INDIANAPOLIS:
WITH THE EURO WAFFLING SO MUCH...ESPECIALLY DONT TRUST
ITS SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THE CR INITIALIZATION ONLY HAD SMALL POPS
STARTING FRIDAY WHICH SEEMS OK FOR NOW AS WE DO NOT WANT TO FLIP
FLOP AS MUCH AS THE MODELS UNTIL THE MODELS GAIN BETTER CONSISTENCY
AND CLUSTERING. MORE CONFIDENCE HOWEVER THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEP TROUGH IS CARVED OUT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY PUTTING AN END TO THE FAST
QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PACIFIC MARITIME FLOW. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN
WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BECOMING NEAR
NORMAL BY SATURDAY.

So let's go through the models.  Remember, they have been ALL over the place the past 24 hours so look at these with a grain of salt.   It will be very interesting to see which one wins this battle.

GFS:  takes the low over us Friday.  Rain at first.  Rain/snow line to our west.

 

By Friday night/Saturday, rain changes to snow.  That would be a possible accumulating event.

 

Even during the day on Saturday, snow showers would continue with cold temps.

 

EURO: is somewhat similar to the GFS, but stronger with the low...and also further north. Mostly a rain event...ending as light snow.  It does strongly suggest light snow continuing over the weekend.

 

CANADIAN: it is slower with the low...therefore wants to suppress it. I think this idea isn't very likely right now given how EURO/GFS keep speeding things up a bit.

 

NOGAPS: Keeps the low to the southeast, but snow showers over the weekend.

 

 So we are getting closer to a solution, but still stark differences keep confidence in extended forecast very low.  Especially since yesterday the EURO/GFS took the low to our west...with a warm/stormy solution.  That very well could come back today.  We'll see.

One thing that is in our favor...the indicies.

AO:  Remember, you want this negative for cold/snow.  Negative means the cold air over the north pole moves south.  And for the first time for most of this season, the trend is negative over the next 1-2 weeks.

 

NAO: This one is the kicker.  It shows positive.  That means the low pressures that move through the eastern US---keep moving.  No blocking.  Doesn't mean warm weather for us, just means the cold air will constantly be on the move.

 

PNA:  going positive.  This helps counteract the positive NAO.  This means the jet stream is likely to dip over the eastern US.  That helps send that cold air to our north...into our area.

 

In fact, you can see here on the EURO how the cold air chunk is over us this weekend...with really cold air just waiting to head southeast.

 

 

TAKING A GOODE GUESS:  For the first time this season, I am seeing hope for the snow lovers.  But I remain cautious as the models have teased us many times this season.  I do feel a reversal is coming in February...just trying to pinpoint if it will be this weekend or later the next week. Tough call.  Either way, I plan to go with a rain to snow setup for late week and snow showers over the weekend. I do think there is enough support on every model to at least trend that way.  Enjoy the warm air early week for the naysayers....changes could be coming.

BOTS!!

Snow TALK! Saturday Edition

Overall, not a bad weekend shaping up for us.  The morning clipper fizzled as expected with mostly light rain reports...had a few snow reports from you guys across Indiana. I appreciate that!  Minor event that is coming to a close.  Now get ready for some sunshine this afternoon :)

There is another clipper that will pass to our north tomorrow.  Models is really good agreement on that one.  Can't rule out a flurry to our north/east but I am not concerned about this one at all.

The one change I made this morning was to the high temps next week.  The track of the low across the south will be the deciding factor, but I do think there is enough support to go with 55-65 for highs across the region. 

I don't see severe storms being a threat based on the current low tracks.  However, the DGEX model does take the storm just to our west mid/late week. If that track comes to light---we may have a storm potential to monitor.  But at this point, the tracks vary so much on the models that temperatures and precipitation amounts (not to mention type) are going to be a pain next week.

As an example, here are the possible tracks for the low next week:

I mean really?!?  So yes, we have to just wait and hope agreement comes into play.

I do think the models and ensembles have a good idea of how things go AFTER this storm.  It likely would mean a dip into the eastern part of the country by the weekend/early parts of the next week.

GFS/EURO/Canadian all like this idea...but vary in just how cold and how long it would stick around.

I do think the dip above will be the first phase with the jet likely becoming more flat by mid February.

This will set us up for the battle of cold vs warm again...but also increases the risk for a phasing storm.  So very active pattern with cold air available to tap into.

But back to the storm next week. Here is the latest on the models. Just don't get too worked up over them right now.

GFS- The 6z run (not usually a relieble  model run for long range) does some funky stuff with this low.  It send a piece of energy in advance of it on Friday.  Mostly a rain to flurry deal.

Then it tries to hang onto some energy in the Gulf to develop a cut off low that tracks NE.  That setup would give a heavy snow event for those to our south/east.  Something that HAS happened already this season.  So I only point this model run out to show that is an interesting thought.

EURO-  A bit more progressive with the low next week.  It isn't too excited about any snow on the back side by Friday. 

It does however hint at a clipper moving in toward next weekend that would give us constant snow showers and cold temps.

Canadian-  Similar to the EURO...though a bit more suppressed with the storm.  It is more excited about the snow showers/cold weather behind it for next weekend and following week as well

 

NOGAPS- This one has certainly flipped. Yesterday, it had the low moving out to sea near DC.  Today, it deepens the low moving to our east.  That would mean snow for us. Heavy snow east KY.

TAKING A GOODE GUESS:  This one is a tough one.  The NAO is going positive next week.  That would favor the EURO/Canadian idea of moving the low through fast.  However, the PNA is also going positive.  That means the jet stream will want to bend upward along the east coast next week.  That would support a storm track from SE to NE in a sharp fashion...aka deeper low pressure.  So it isn't going to be an easy forecast.  We just will have to give it a few more days for the models to nail down the upper air pattern.  I still think next weekend and parts of the next week will be chilly with some light snow chances. But can't more specific than that right now.  So changes are coming folks.  Another UP and DOWN week.

 BOTS!!!

Snow TALK! Friday Edition

Cloudy, cold day.  Clouds always seem to get trapped in the Ohio Valley it seems.  Today is/was no different.

We now prepare for a couple of minor events before the longer term gets more....interesting.

(2) Clippers on the charts this weekend.

CLIPPER # 1- Arrives late tonight/early Saturday. 

NAM                                                     GFS

                       

Both are light with the moisture...and as of right now, forecast temps are expected to average out 33-36 for the event.  Those of you across IN may hit 31/32...and have the best chance at maybe a very minor grassy/car-top coating. 

 

CLIPPER # 2 - Arrives Sunday midday/early afternoon.

NAM                                                             GFS

                             

Both are again similar on the track with the best moisture across IN/OH.  However, as we have seen many times in this area, snow showers develop further south into KY.  So I do think some flurries snow showers are possible locally.  Temps will be colder with this one...so there would be a chance for perhaps a quick very light coating with most areas just seeing flurries only.

GFS snowmap pretty much sums up the risk for both events.  Minor or nothing at all.  We'll keep an eye on the trends in case moisture levels increase higher and/or temps are lower than the data we have on hand right now. 

I am in both Saturday/Sunday mornings on WAVE 3 Sunrise and will have updates on facebook.

SO THEN WHAT?

That leads us to a modest warm-up next week.  I think we will rise back into the 50s by Wednesday.  With the warm air advection, we may see a few rain showers late Tue/Wed.  Nothing too heavy.

The big question is what happens Thur-Fri?  The models keep hinting that a low will come off the Rockies and head across the southeastern USA.  The track for this low is crucial on its outcome for KY/IN.  I wish the models were in better agreement today, but they are not.  So while I will show you the models as they stand now, keep in mind there will be adjustments.

GFS: Rain to light snow as the low tracks to our south...and heads into Mid Atlantic. 

EURO: Similar ordeal.  However, the latest run of the EURO does allow us to tap into at least a risk for some accumulating snow before it pushes east.

Canadian: Low is a bit further inland...indicating a strong lower.  Good rain to snow path for us...heavy snow risk for east KY on this model.

NOGAPS: Takes the low due east...nearly out to sea. Little if any impact locally.

I did glance at the JMA (can't post) and it was similar to the EURO/Canadian for the most part.

Usually with low pressures like this, they either track WEST or EAST of the Appalachian Mountains.  So we have to figure out what this one will do.

One trend I have noticed...especially on the GFS is the cold outlook for Super Bowl Weekend (Feb 4/5).  It even gives us constant snow showers...some heavy that weekend. 

Remember, John Belski's theory of a snowstorm for the superbowl based on major weather events regarding NBC and sporting events?  :) 

It does look to be a colder pattern through the first week of February.   I won't show what the models are hinting at just yet...it will just get the snow lovers too excited and snow haters a reason to dislike me more :) 

We will just have to take this pattern one week at a time. 

So to recap, 2 clippers this weekend---and a low pressure to track next week across the south.

Stay tuned.

  BOTS!!!

Drying Out and Cooling Down

Over 1.75 inches of rain fell with this last system, and we have soggy, muddy grass and some minor flooding to prove it.  We have some flood warnings in Southern Indiana for the Muscatatuck River, the East Fork of the White River and the Wabash River.  We also have a flood warning for the Green River in South Central Kentucky.

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD
WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GREEN RIVER AT WOODBURY.
* FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT  6:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.2 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 33.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 33.1 FEET BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE RIVER
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 33.0 FEET...KY 403 AT JAMES MCKINNEY BRIDGE FLOODS.
  WATER OVERFLOWS LOCK WALL.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 33.2
  FEET ON DEC 11 2009.

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE EAST FORK WHITE RIVER AT SEYMOUR.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 8:00 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.7 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 16.0 FEET BY
  EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* AT 16.0 FEET...EXTENSIVE LOWLAND FLOODING AFFECTING AGRICULTURAL
  LANDS.   MANY COUNTY AND STATE ROADS IN FLOOD PLAIN BECOME
  IMPASSABLE BY HIGH WATER.  THESE INCLUDE SR 235 EAST OF MEDORA...SR
  258 EAST OF CORTLAND...COUNTY ROAD 725 N AND POSSIBLY STATE ROAD 39
  SOUTH OF TAMPICO. HIGH WATER AFFECTS COUNTY ROADS NEAR VALLONIA
  AND SHIELDS...EWING ROAD NEAR BROWNSTOWN...COUNTY ROAD 525 NORTH
  NEAR SEYMOUR WASTEWATER TREATMENT PLANT...HONEYTOWN ROAD AND
  POSSIBLY STATE ROADS 250 EAST OF DUDLEYTOWN AND 256 WEST OF AUSTIN.

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE MUSCATATUCK RIVER AT WHEELER HOLLOW.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.

_________________________________________________________________________

Here's the latest tally of the Alabama tornadoes from early this week from the NWS Birmingham:

We may see a few flurries or sprinkles mixed with sleet in the morning tomorrow, but it should be brief and out of here by the time most of us wake up (but then again I sleep late on Saturday).  No accumulation expected in our area.

 

Snow TALK! "Where the heck is winter?" Thoughts

I think it goes without saying that this has been a strange winter.  Before I touch base about what lies ahead, I did want to take a second to explain what has taken place.

The big question many of you have been asking is...why no snowstorms?  Easy answer: the pattern is just too fast moving.  Look at the storm tracks since October.  I marked "x" where you would not want a storm track to get a cold pattern for us here.  You can see the problem.

When most of our put out our winter forecasts in the fall...we were highly betting on the idea of a strong influence of moisture from La Nina and a "blocking pattern" that would develop.  The blocking idea made sense given that we have seen in increase in blocking patterns over the past several winters.  This year however...the blocking (particularly the Greenland Block) has been absent thus far. 

 

You need that block to slow down areas of low pressure....and deepen low pressures. 

So far, we have only been able to maintain a north wind for say 24-48 hours before it changes direction again back toward the south.  The cold air is up there.  And it has been extremely cold.  We just have not been able yet to slow the storms down to allow for a strong northerly flow into the Ohio Valley.

The one indicator we use alot to see when that is possible, is the NAO.  The more negative....the more blocking that develops.  However, a positive PNA can also help drive the jet stream up the east coast for a storm or two, but doesn't really help with a sustained blocking.

Here are the latest outlooks for both. 

NAO:  neutral and slightly positive

 

PNA: moves back into positive

 

So those are the two indicators that control the dips of the jet stream.  If we were to get strongly forecast negative NAO and positive PNA--- yup...we'd be all about letting you all know that a cold pattern is coming.

That then leads to the next question. How cold would it get?  That is where the AO comes in play.  If negative...the cold air that has been trapped up north moves south into the United States.  If positive...it stays locked up.

Latest outlook of the AO:  All over the place..but mostly negative.

 

Another topic that has come up alot...is the stratosphere.  It is the layer  just above the troposphere (where the weather take place).  It is a fairly calm layer...which is why planes and even some birds fly barely into it to avoid turbulence.  It is however a gaseous layer where lots of chemical reactions take place.  One of those involves the temperature.  We have learned that when this layer warms...it causes the troposphere below to "thin out".  That thinning out leads to a lowering in temperature.  There is a lag in that reaction however.  Sometimes up to 10 days.

There has been warming of this last over the past few days.  And the long term still does show more warming.

 

So if we went with that theory alone, February would see the most reaction of this in terms of colder temperatures to work with. 

That means we would then have to watch out for blocking patterns...or that cold that we could tap into...would be wasted elsewhere across North America.  And that can still happen.

See how complicated this can all get?  Forecasting long range is a challenge as we can use the above tools to help us gauge the pattern ahead...but what those tools don't tell us are specifics about each storm.  So while they may show a warm pattern---we still could get a snow event.  And if they showed a cold pattern--that doesn't mean we wouldn't see a brief warm spell.  So they are just tools, not a hard core forecast.  That is why we have our 7 day outlook :)

MY THOUGHTS ON FEBRUARY:
I think blocking will show up more often than it has in recent months...but I am not sure how well it can be maintained.  I do think we still run a risk for some very cold outbreaks and big snow events.  LA Nina is still with us...and helping with the active storm tracks.    Severe thunderstorms are concerning with the pattern...but if we do get the blocking, the storm risk will be limited to the Gulf Coast/FL region.  This will be the month of the most wintry weather we will see of the season.  Considering we have only had 1.8" so far,  that isn't saying much.  Do I think we will get my season total of 28"---doubting it more and more...but I am not ready to lower it just yet.  I want to see how well the atmosphere reacts to the signs we have been getting lately.  If they start to match up well, I will have more confidence in that total.  If they don't...obviously I will lower it.  March does looks to be an extension of the colder pattern by the way.  If you think our pattern has been weird so far, just wait.  The next 2 months are going to continue to look that way.

So either I am going to look like a complete idiot...or a genius with this forecast. LoL.  Most of you I am sure will go with idiot :)

 Just for fun, here is the Farmer's Almanac forecast they just put out for the month of FEB for our area:

FEBRUARY 2012: temperature 26° (6° below avg.); precipitation 3.5" (2" above avg. east, 1" below west); Feb 1-5: Snow showers, cold; Feb 6-9: Showers, mild; Feb 10-16: Snow, then snow showers, cold; Feb 17-20: Snow, very cold; Feb 21-25: Sunny, turning mild; Feb 26-29: Heavy rain to snow, turning cold.

Don't give up yet snow lovers. I know it is very difficult to...esp with so many talking about sun angle  changes and such----but the weather is much more complex that such a simple thought as that.  We have many challenges ahead...and likely some surprises to face.

BACK TO NOW:
Rain obviously our main headline this evening ...but did want to mention the chance for it to end as a few snowflakes in the morning.  Especially across IN where the thermal profiles will be easier to cool to snowflake potential.  Rain/snow line well to our south in the morning. Either way, it doesn't look to be anything significant as of this post.

 

There appears to be 2 clippers this weekend.  One Saturday...one Sunday.  Both will struggle with moisture.

SATURDAY:
Moves down from the north.  Temps at ground level may be warm intially to keep it as a rain/snow mix before that cold layer can lower in the afternoon.  Best chance across IN to see all snow...the mix risk comes in once you get into the Louisville Metro.

 

SUNDAY:
Next fast moving clipper rolls in.  It looks to have even less moisture to work with...but temp profiles are certainly cold for this one.

 

Both system have the chance for maybe a minor accumulation...with the best chance for that accumulation on Sunday than Saturday I think.

NAM Snow Map

 

GFS Snow Map

 

Next week looks like another decent warming with rain.  Highs in the 50s.

It is late next week and next weekend that the models start to go nuts again.

EURO is showing cold air over much of the country...and dry by next weekend. That looks is a close blocking pattern.

 

GFS:  It is going with a negative NAO blocking idea...where our flow gets stuck out of the NW/N.  That would mean light snow events...no major snows...but cold.

Canadian: Not as deep with the cold air, but that does also allow for a storm to develop across the SE USA.  That would be a potential rain to snow-maker for us.

NOGAPS:  Similar idea...with a low developing over the Carolinas...cold enough for snow locally.

So once again, the models are not exactly agreeing on how things will play out...but it is 7 days away.  We'll trend it.

BOTS!