This pattern continues to amaze me as we're about to close out January....WELL above average. Our lowest temperature of the season thus far has been 17°...yes, 17 degrees. Last year at this time we had already recorded temperatures in the single digits. This unusual warmth continues as we head throughout the week, in fact we're tracking the potential for record breaking heat. I'll be honest, the next several days appear to be clear cut to me, but my confidence on the weekend and thereafter is a bit up in the air. We've said over the last few days the models are having a hard time nailing down the forecast. We base our forecast off of model data, yes, but it's also much more than that. It's pattern trends, changes, climatology, etc. and as we all know this winter has been anything but consistent...so, going forth we'll have to fine tune the forecast. This blog update will be very much circumstantial...what I think over the next few days in addition to what the possibilities may be in the next 4-8 days. So lets get down to business...
First lets start with today. A new week, a new day...and temps once again were well above average. Temperatures hit the upper 50s to low 60s around Kentuckiana...we topped out at 61 here in Louisville. A stiff Southerly wind helped warm us up nicely today...so where is all of the cold air? Well, easily put it's locked in place WELL North of us. We've see quick hits of the harsh Canadian air this winter but the jet stream snaps back into place quickly thereafter and our jabs of winter like air are short lived. As we head throughout the week the cold air will stay in place well North of us which means the warm up continues...and given the atmospheric set up to our West...temperatures are expected to increase.
NEXT FEW DAYS...South of a warm front and East of a cold front, you got it, perfect location for warming conditions. Factor in impressive Southerly winds and an recipe for near record heat arrives tomorrow. Old record of 67°, set back in 1989, will be within reach tomorrow as temperatures will top out in the mid 60s. Southern and Western KY may see temps into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Yes, that's some 20-25 degrees above average as we should be in the low to mid 40s this time of year. As temperatures rise moisture increases as a cold front approaches. Many of you have asked if this means severe weather, and thankfully at this time no. Dew point readings remain in the 40s/50s in addition to low instability and minimal lift. I just don't see the development of storms...so as we head into mid/late week expect scattered showers develop. Mild air will stick around in addition to scattered showers, starting tomorrow evening/overnight.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...Things start to become more uncertain. Yesterdays runs hinted at cut off low bringing arctic air with it while some of today's runs have flipped that completely and bring in much warmer temps...which means rain. I do thing we could have an impressive system develop but I think the timing of the cold air will lag a bit...meaning, the moisture source WILL be there but the cold air WON'T. Again, this is just my early thinking. It's been such an unpredictable Winter that we'll have to wait a few days until we finalize the long range forecast. I do have confidence in colder air arriving next week. Models are picking up on the freezing line remaining South of us meaning colder air invades. At this point we'll need a harsh snap of cold air and a darn good storm track to bust out significant snow. I'm not giving up yet...but it sure has been a disappointing season. Stay tuned...updates over the next few days.
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