Cloudy, cold day. Clouds always seem to get trapped in the Ohio Valley it seems. Today is/was no different.
We now prepare for a couple of minor events before the longer term gets more....interesting.
(2) Clippers on the charts this weekend.
CLIPPER # 1- Arrives late tonight/early Saturday.
NAM GFS
Both are light with the moisture...and as of right now, forecast temps are expected to average out 33-36 for the event. Those of you across IN may hit 31/32...and have the best chance at maybe a very minor grassy/car-top coating.
CLIPPER # 2 - Arrives Sunday midday/early afternoon.
NAM GFS
Both are again similar on the track with the best moisture across IN/OH. However, as we have seen many times in this area, snow showers develop further south into KY. So I do think some flurries snow showers are possible locally. Temps will be colder with this one...so there would be a chance for perhaps a quick very light coating with most areas just seeing flurries only.
GFS snowmap pretty much sums up the risk for both events. Minor or nothing at all. We'll keep an eye on the trends in case moisture levels increase higher and/or temps are lower than the data we have on hand right now.
I am in both Saturday/Sunday mornings on WAVE 3 Sunrise and will have updates on facebook.
SO THEN WHAT?
That leads us to a modest warm-up next week. I think we will rise back into the 50s by Wednesday. With the warm air advection, we may see a few rain showers late Tue/Wed. Nothing too heavy.
The big question is what happens Thur-Fri? The models keep hinting that a low will come off the Rockies and head across the southeastern USA. The track for this low is crucial on its outcome for KY/IN. I wish the models were in better agreement today, but they are not. So while I will show you the models as they stand now, keep in mind there will be adjustments.
GFS: Rain to light snow as the low tracks to our south...and heads into Mid Atlantic.
EURO: Similar ordeal. However, the latest run of the EURO does allow us to tap into at least a risk for some accumulating snow before it pushes east.
Canadian: Low is a bit further inland...indicating a strong lower. Good rain to snow path for us...heavy snow risk for east KY on this model.
NOGAPS: Takes the low due east...nearly out to sea. Little if any impact locally.
I did glance at the JMA (can't post) and it was similar to the EURO/Canadian for the most part.
Usually with low pressures like this, they either track WEST or EAST of the Appalachian Mountains. So we have to figure out what this one will do.
One trend I have noticed...especially on the GFS is the cold outlook for Super Bowl Weekend (Feb 4/5). It even gives us constant snow showers...some heavy that weekend.
Remember, John Belski's theory of a snowstorm for the superbowl based on major weather events regarding NBC and sporting events? :)
It does look to be a colder pattern through the first week of February. I won't show what the models are hinting at just yet...it will just get the snow lovers too excited and snow haters a reason to dislike me more :)
We will just have to take this pattern one week at a time.
So to recap, 2 clippers this weekend---and a low pressure to track next week across the south.
Stay tuned.
BOTS!!!
