Weather Blog: Snow TALK! Saturday Edition

Overall, not a bad weekend shaping up for us. The morning clipper fizzled as expected with mostly light rain reports...had a few snow reports from you guys across Indiana. I appreciate that! Minor event that is coming to a close. Now get ready for some sunshine this afternoon :)

There is another clipper that will pass to our north tomorrow. Models is really good agreement on that one. Can't rule out a flurry to our north/east but I am not concerned about this one at all.

The one change I made this morning was to the high temps next week. The track of the low across the south will be the deciding factor, but I do think there is enough support to go with 55-65 for highs across the region.

I don't see severe storms being a threat based on the current low tracks. However, the DGEX model does take the storm just to our west mid/late week. If that track comes to light---we may have a storm potential to monitor. But at this point, the tracks vary so much on the models that temperatures and precipitation amounts (not to mention type) are going to be a pain next week.

As an example, here are the possible tracks for the low next week:

I mean really?!? So yes, we have to just wait and hope agreement comes into play.

I do think the models and ensembles have a good idea of how things go AFTER this storm. It likely would mean a dip into the eastern part of the country by the weekend/early parts of the next week.

GFS/EURO/Canadian all like this idea...but vary in just how cold and how long it would stick around.

I do think the dip above will be the first phase with the jet likely becoming more flat by mid February.

This will set us up for the battle of cold vs warm again...but also increases the risk for a phasing storm. So very active pattern with cold air available to tap into.

But back to the storm next week. Here is the latest on the models. Just don't get too worked up over them right now.

GFS- The 6z run (not usually a relieble model run for long range) does some funky stuff with this low. It send a piece of energy in advance of it on Friday. Mostly a rain to flurry deal.

Then it tries to hang onto some energy in the Gulf to develop a cut off low that tracks NE. That setup would give a heavy snow event for those to our south/east. Something that HAS happened already this season. So I only point this model run out to show that is an interesting thought.

EURO- A bit more progressive with the low next week. It isn't too excited about any snow on the back side by Friday.

It does however hint at a clipper moving in toward next weekend that would give us constant snow showers and cold temps.

Canadian- Similar to the EURO...though a bit more suppressed with the storm. It is more excited about the snow showers/cold weather behind it for next weekend and following week as well

NOGAPS- This one has certainly flipped. Yesterday, it had the low moving out to sea near DC. Today, it deepens the low moving to our east. That would mean snow for us. Heavy snow east KY.

TAKING A GOODE GUESS: This one is a tough one. The NAO is going positive next week. That would favor the EURO/Canadian idea of moving the low through fast. However, the PNA is also going positive. That means the jet stream will want to bend upward along the east coast next week. That would support a storm track from SE to NE in a sharp fashion...aka deeper low pressure. So it isn't going to be an easy forecast. We just will have to give it a few more days for the models to nail down the upper air pattern. I still think next weekend and parts of the next week will be chilly with some light snow chances. But can't more specific than that right now. So changes are coming folks. Another UP and DOWN week.

BOTS!!!