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John Belski's Blog
Check out some of the winds to our west... we're in for a windy Tuesday. Low level jet of 50-60 kts will mix down and create wind gusts as high as 30 to 40 mph in places. The pressure gradient will tighten as well and winds will be gusty through the day.
The rain chance is secondary to the winds... there will only be light precipitation expected as it moves through. The best chance would be during the early morning hours. A two to three hour window of opportunity exists to see the rain. The best timing on this (at this time) appears to be between 6:00 & 9:00 in the morning. The convection will diminish to just showers by the time it reaches us.
Temperatures will remain mild with highs in the mid 50s on Tuesday. And the mercury keeps rising. The average high for this time of the year would typically be in the upper 40s. We'll be close to 60 on Wednesday and I wouldn't be surprised to see a 70 degree reading on Thursday.
With a powerful cold front on the way later this week and highs expected to be so warm... the question of severe weather chances always comes up. At this point the latest models hint to a storm chance late Thursday into Friday. However, the timing for severe weather isn't favorable (instability will be compromised) - but the conditions exists that a line of thunderstorms may form with gusty winds. It's a bit too early to speculate on severe chances with any certainty at this point... Right now the best chance for severe storms will be across the Gulf Coast states. Stay tuned for updates!
The evening run of the NAM actually delays development of any late week precipitation until the front passes.