WAVE 3 WEATHER
The latest HRRR continues to develop showers & thunderstorms into the overnight hours. As upper level winds increase more and more storms will fire. this will bring storms, some strong to the area during the early morning hours Wednesday.
2:00 AM - 5:00 AM
Scattered showers & storms
5:00 AM - 8:00 AM
Showers & storms likely, heavy rain possible with totals exceeding one inch in a few places.
A few storms could be strong to severe. With sufficient shear in the atmosphere we could see some rotation and therefore an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
8:00 AM - 11:00 PM
Main rains move east with scattered storms still possible...
11:00 PM - 3:00 PM
Storms develop ahead of the cold front - depending on how the atmosphere can recover from the morning convection will determine how strong the afternoon storms can be. It's possible to see a few breaks in the clouds that will lead to destabilization... if this occurs strong to severe storms would be possible, especially along and east of Interstate 65 during this time.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
A line of thunderstorms has developed across southeast MO and southern IL. Timing of this line brings it into the western portion of the forecast area around 05Z. Mesoscale models continue to develop more convection overnight as the low level jet ramps up.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER - DAY 2
Widespread showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing in the vicinity of the advancing cold front at the start of the period... and eastward across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys in the zone of warm advection ahead of the system. The ongoing precipitation/cloud cover will act to hinder heating/destabilization during the day... but expect ample CAPE -- aided by northward advection of higher Theata E air... to support ongoing storms. Though instability should remain limited in most areas... very strong kinematic evnironment will exist with very strong/quasi-unidirectional west southwesterly flow expected throughout the cloud-bearing layer. While limited potential for hail and a couple of isolated tornadoes appear possible... main severe threat this period will likely be damaging winds -- with fast-moving lines/line segments. The greatest threat should occur through the afternoon along and west of the Appalachians -- including the mid and upper Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Some threat may cross the Appalachians overnight as the weakening front advances... with threat possibly reaching mid-Atlantic/Carolina Coast throught the end of the period.
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Such a good breakdown. Thanks!!
**REPLY FROM KEVIN HARNED**
Thanks FB... we're watching the storms. Missouri is getting pounded right now.
Posted by: FB | February 29, 2012 at 12:25 AM