Frustrated. That sums up this last event. We knew we had two options with this...south track or north. We had to battle the models versus what typically happens with a southern low. Most lows on the GFS model trend north in time. NAM usually does good with smaller scale features. So we knew the quirks of the models...which made trusting them a challenge. So what happened? Lack of complete info was the main issue. Having this system over Mexico for its developing stage made it tough to gather data on how well it was developing. We launched balloons into the storm as soon as it crossed into TX. Suddenly, the models aligned well enough for us to make adjustments with more confidence. Unfortunately, that didn't happen until yesterday afternoon. And still are adjusting things to the south due to the dry air/radar trends. Only our southern most counties are at risk for any light accumulations. Nothing for the Metro certainly.
We appreciate your patience with last one. I know just about every meteorologist in this area and beyond (meteorologist friends in other states were pulling their hair out too) struggled with this one.
This has been an unreal winter to get snow in this region.
I know we will be picked on/bashed and/or accused of "hype". That is part of the job to hear feedback. But we will always inform you anytime a storm has "potential" to impact the area. That IS our job. Sometimes giving out too much info on social media/blogs can frustrate you further---but I personally like to share the data so you can see the behind the scenes of forecasting and the huge challenges we face. That has always been that case since day one of TV weather...but you are "seeing" and "hearing" more of it than ever before thanks to technology.
I will get off my rant/soapbox, but I do appreciate those of you that understand the challenges and stick with us to get the latest information. Feel free to email Kevin or myself , firstname.lastname@example.org, if you have questions/concerns.
Moving on...I see 3 distinct changes to our weather pattern. A warm up, a cold blast, and a significant warm up.
I will break this post down based on those 3.
Warm front will surge north tomorrow. That will allows the south wind to return and the 50 degree temps. I would not rule out a 60 degree temp with this warm up through mid week. Highest rain chance looks to be on Tuesday.
Here is the GFS: *snow well north
This one is still fuzzy on details as it could be a 2 step process to cool down. One Thursday night...another Friday night.
Thursday night could set the stage for rain to snow showers by Friday.
Here is the GFS:
Another surge of cold air expected Friday night into Saturday. That may come with more snow showers or flurries.
And looks at the cold air the GFS shows...EURO does as well:
It does not look like a major snow, but light snows. Plenty of time to monitor that part of the forecast.
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP:
The flipping of the indicies points to a nice warm up near March 1st. I see the potential for highs reaching 60-70 during this time.
GFS sees the start of it in the southern Plains
Obviously, we would have to watch for thunderstorms with that warm surge, but too early to know when/where or if that would happen yet.
After that warm-up, the trend to get it cold again becomes a huge challenge. GFS tries to hint at another cold blast by the 2nd week of March, but I am betting more on the warm than cold right now. I plan to hide from the models for a few days, so I will post again Wednesday.
...still believing... BOTS!!!