Frustrated. That sums up this last event. We knew we had two options with this...south track or north. We had to battle the models versus what typically happens with a southern low. Most lows on the GFS model trend north in time. NAM usually does good with smaller scale features. So we knew the quirks of the models...which made trusting them a challenge. So what happened? Lack of complete info was the main issue. Having this system over Mexico for its developing stage made it tough to gather data on how well it was developing. We launched balloons into the storm as soon as it crossed into TX. Suddenly, the models aligned well enough for us to make adjustments with more confidence. Unfortunately, that didn't happen until yesterday afternoon. And still are adjusting things to the south due to the dry air/radar trends. Only our southern most counties are at risk for any light accumulations. Nothing for the Metro certainly.
We appreciate your patience with last one. I know just about every meteorologist in this area and beyond (meteorologist friends in other states were pulling their hair out too) struggled with this one.
This has been an unreal winter to get snow in this region.
I know we will be picked on/bashed and/or accused of "hype". That is part of the job to hear feedback. But we will always inform you anytime a storm has "potential" to impact the area. That IS our job. Sometimes giving out too much info on social media/blogs can frustrate you further---but I personally like to share the data so you can see the behind the scenes of forecasting and the huge challenges we face. That has always been that case since day one of TV weather...but you are "seeing" and "hearing" more of it than ever before thanks to technology.
I will get off my rant/soapbox, but I do appreciate those of you that understand the challenges and stick with us to get the latest information. Feel free to email Kevin or myself , bgoode@wave3.com, if you have questions/concerns.
Moving on...I see 3 distinct changes to our weather pattern. A warm up, a cold blast, and a significant warm up.
I will break this post down based on those 3.
WARM UP:
Warm front will surge north tomorrow. That will allows the south wind to return and the 50 degree temps. I would not rule out a 60 degree temp with this warm up through mid week. Highest rain chance looks to be on Tuesday.
Here is the GFS: *snow well north
COLD BLAST:
This one is still fuzzy on details as it could be a 2 step process to cool down. One Thursday night...another Friday night.
Thursday night could set the stage for rain to snow showers by Friday.
Here is the GFS:
EURO:
Another surge of cold air expected Friday night into Saturday. That may come with more snow showers or flurries.
GFS:
And looks at the cold air the GFS shows...EURO does as well:
It does not look like a major snow, but light snows. Plenty of time to monitor that part of the forecast.
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP:
The flipping of the indicies points to a nice warm up near March 1st. I see the potential for highs reaching 60-70 during this time.
GFS sees the start of it in the southern Plains
Obviously, we would have to watch for thunderstorms with that warm surge, but too early to know when/where or if that would happen yet.
After that warm-up, the trend to get it cold again becomes a huge challenge. GFS tries to hint at another cold blast by the 2nd week of March, but I am betting more on the warm than cold right now. I plan to hide from the models for a few days, so I will post again Wednesday.
...still believing... BOTS!!!
I really don't think too many expected much in Jeff co from the get go. We've resigned ourselves to the concrete fact that this is $&!# HOLE USA.
So I don't believe the local Mets are on the hook, its the ones out in the state hyping 16 + inches. Rule of thumb you can be a goat a lot less knowing this is $#!? Hole USA and should just make a bold call of no snow no matter what models say. Doing this would make you right 99 out 100 blown events. So breath easy and don't worry the only thing I would be ticked about is coming back to this ridiculous help hole when you obviouslycould have gone to a much better and exciting market that actually HAS a damn Winter like Maine, Colorado,California, Idaho, Wyoming or a number of other places. Personally I would never return to this ridiculous $&*$ hole if I didn't have to.
Posted by: rake | February 19, 2012 at 10:09 AM
Brian, we appreciate you here in E-Town. Hard job you have. I am believing with you :)
Keep your head up darlin'
Posted by: E-TownKY | February 19, 2012 at 10:12 AM
What rake said..if I could I would be where there is real winter...
Posted by: Jean | February 19, 2012 at 10:22 AM
Brian, You all do a wonderful job!
Posted by: Kristian Brummett | February 19, 2012 at 10:54 AM
Thank you for all the hard work. I think you did everything just right!
Posted by: CM | February 19, 2012 at 11:01 AM
Don't worry about hype Brian. Your station was very up front from the start about this system, and especially the problems with sampling since it stayed over Mexico so long (I didn't realize storms needed entry visa's (bad humor)). We do need some kind of cold snap to bring our plants and all back to reality though. What can we say? The weather has been funky, and if this keeps up much longer, we'll have to say our climate.
Posted by: Michael C. | February 19, 2012 at 11:02 AM
I for one am not dissapointed , Ill take no snow anytime.
I hope it hits 80 this week. Winter is depressing and snow just makes it worse. Cant wait to get outside, work in the yard and cut grass.
Get the boat out, go camping and all the normal things of summer.
Cabin fever is all you get with winter.
Posted by: jeff harral | February 19, 2012 at 11:36 AM
Everyone was hoping for a snow hit and you guys reported the slim (but hopeful) chances of it. I'd rather watch/read from meteorologists who hope for snow like I do, but report the weather as accurately as possible with the info given to them, which you obviously do.
In KY, once in a while we get some mild and uneventful seasons. If we could predict 24" of snow every year no matter what, I think that'd take some fun out of our big events.
Posted by: FB | February 19, 2012 at 12:17 PM
Brian, I think the key word with weather is "Potential". And, I for one want the information whether it pans out or not. I would prefer to be prepared. Keep up doing the great job you guys are doing and don't take the complainers to heart. There will always be someone who just rants. And, I think the comments you are seeing here and on your Facebook page really speaks volumes of the appreciation that most of us have for all you guys in the Wave3 Weather Center. Thanks again and keep up the good work!
Posted by: Alan Jones | February 19, 2012 at 12:27 PM
Predicting and controlling are two different things and it's not as simple as seeing red clouds on the horizon. Let come what may, but thanks for keeping me informed and on the look-out!
Posted by: Ryan B. | February 19, 2012 at 01:37 PM
thanks for the comments everyone. I wasn't trying to appear like I am complaining myself :) Just wanted everyone to understand "why" it was such a challenging storm. SE KY is getting slammed right now. So at least someone is getting the snow :)
Posted by: Brian Goode | February 19, 2012 at 02:30 PM
Brian, I enjoy your updates. It seems that you enjoy what you do, and situations like this really seem to polarize people between those who want the impossible and those who enjoy LEARNING about weather, no matter how it pans out. Your posts go into great detail about the reasoning behind the forecasts, which is of value to those of us who find it interesting to learn about the hows and whys of meteorology (and the sciences in general) and the technology available. People just can't get that understanding by looking at color-coded maps and sunny/rainy icons. Anywho, I appreciate the awesome blog, and keep up the good work.
Posted by: James | February 19, 2012 at 07:55 PM