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As we take a look back at the storms from this morning, we have three possible tornado touchdowns.  Just keep in mind that the National Weather Service out of Louisville will be the ones that make the final determination, but we can let you know what areas have seen damage that COULD have been caused by a tornado as we wait for the official report.

Possible touchdowns:  Grayson County near Leitchfield, Hardin County and LaRue County.

Hardin County in E-town along hwy 62 (Harry Owen Trucking Co.) pic from Bill Pennington

LaRue near Hodgenville... pic from Tracy Blair

 

We are dealing with flooding as well since these storms dropped a ton of rain over some of the same places over and over again.  Water rescues are currently going on in Western Kentucky and many roads are covered with water and impassable... pic by Ricky Morris near Cecilia

 

Here is the latest TORNADO WATCH that is in effect until 9pm EST.

Severe Weather Updates

Damage Pictures:

from Bill Pennington (Harry Owen Trucking), The News-Enterprise (Harry Owen Trucking in E-town), Tony Ballard (possible wall cloud in Holy Cross)

 

 

Severe Weather UPDATE

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11:30 AM UPDATE

Take cover in Nelson/Washington counties!

11:13 AM UPDATE
Take cover NOW in Hodgenville!!!

10:47 AM UPDATE:
good news...people that were trapped at the trucking company in hardin county are accounted for.

10:29 AM UPDATE
New tornado warning Grayson/Hardin/Breckinridge...once again Grayson getting hit hard.

This is until 11am.

 10:23 AM UPDATE
Tornado Warnings out for Nelson/Washington/Larue/Marion counties until 10:45 am.

Reports of significant damage across Hardin/Larue Counties due to a possible tornado touchdown.

Trying to keep up with all the reports.

9:12 AM UPDATE
Still watching Grayson County. Tornado WARNING until 9:30am ET.

Reports of a funnel cloud around HWY 62.

Southern counties most are risk for severe storms...Louisville Metro and north is doing okay right now.

 

(2/29) WATCH POSSIBLE (toward daybreak)

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WATCH POSSIBLE


Weather watch issuance is unlikely over southwestern/southern Ohio – northern Kentucky, though areas  farther to the west and southwest in parts of central Kentucky into southern Indiana and middle Tennessee  will need to be monitored overnight for a potential weather watch issuance  toward daybreak.

08z surface/streamline analyses showed a warm front extending from southern Iowa southeastward through central Illinois to north central-northern Kentucky.  Strong southwesterly low level flow across the warm sector will maintain northward moisture advection and continued destabilization from w-e across the lower Ohio Valley resulting in lower thermodynamic profiles eventually becoming conducive for surface based storms.  Objective analyses indicated a plume of steeper midlevel lapse rates /7-7.5 c per km/ spreading into western Tennessee & Kentucky and far southern Indiana atop the moisture return contributing to mucape of 1000-2000 J/kg.

Regional radar imagery showed convection continuing to develop within a low level convergence zone extending from northeastern Arkansas / western Tennessee into southern Illinois and western Tennessee & Kentucky to southern Indiana.  Thunderstorms have been developing along the eastern extent of the cap...now extending from central Kentucky into southern Indiana.  Forecast soundings suggest the environment should become supportive for surface or near-surface based storms by 12z over central Kentucky/adjacent northern middle Tennessee and into southern Indiana with the advection of greater moisture from the southwest.  In addition to damaging winds...strong vertically veering wind profiles will support large curved hodographs for a tornado threat.  Additional severe weather threat will exist with quasi-linear convective system advancing eastward into the lower Ohio Valley region by 12z.

Meanwhile...at this time...thunderstorms moving into southwestern / southern Ohio and adjacent far northern Kentucky should remain elevated n of the warm front where the boundary layer remains more stable given cooler surface temperatures.  Strengthening bulk shear will support some storm   organization...but weak instability/lapse rates will preclude a severe weather threat with eastern extent.

MORE STORMS
While the threat for severe weather has kept us here around the clock on this Wednesday... it looks like the real show may actually be later this week, on Friday.  Another potential severe weather outbreak is possible on Friday with an even higher chance (risk) for severe storms.  We're still a couple days away, but the latest data certainly has our attention.  Stay tuned for more updates as we approach the end of the week. 

(2/29) Western KY Tornado WATCH

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LATEST WATCH
Includes Western Kentucky from 2:15AM - 10:00AM EST
Central and southern Missouri squall line with embedded sustained supercells expected to continue east northeastward at about 50 knots.  The storms may strengthen as the move beyond the Ozarks and encounter richer boundary layer moisture - precipitable water values 1.50 inches and surface dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s - spreading rapidly north northeast up the Mississippi Valley. Intense low to mid level wind field with 60-70 knot southwesterly low level jet veering fro 70-80 knot west southwest flow at 500 MB will maintain potential for embedded supercells capable of tornadoes and damaging wind despite time of day.  Additional storms may form east of the squall line as strengthening low level jet and large scale ascent associated with potent Nebraska/Iowa vorticity interact with remnant warm front over the region.  


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(2/29) Leap Day - Storms Included

HERE AT HOME
Overnight we had two SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS for portions of the WAVE 3 viewing area in southern Indiana.  Those warnings included: Crawford, DuBois, Orange, Washington & Perry Counties.  The last warning expired at 1:45 AM.  There were no reports of damage, but we did receive reports of pea size hail.

OUR FORECAST
Scattered to numerous storms will continue to develop into the early morning hours.  Some of these storms will be strong with the potential to put down heavy rain, gusty winds & hail... with the wind shear in the atmosphere we can't rule out an isolated tornado. 

It appears another threat for organized severe weather will occur ahead of the cold front later in the day on Wednesday.  So the idea would be that the storms in Missouri tonight would weaken as they move into Kentuckiana.  The atmosphere would have a chance to recover and would therefore have the potential to produce a squall line as the cold front arrives into the afternoon Wednesday.  This would mainly be a damaging wind event, but the other factors mentioned above cannot be ruled out.  The best chance for this would be along and east of Interstate 65.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER


STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK - WEDNESDAY

MISSOURI & KANSAS SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS
It's been a night of severe weather across Kansas and Missouri.
Here are some of the reports we've been getting into the WAVE 3 Storm Center...

*  Laclede County, MO Emergency Management reporting debris falling from the sky in the town of Lebanon.

*  Emergency manager reporting major damage and houses destroyed from tornado SW and S of Buffalo, MO.

*  40% of structures damaged in Harveyville, KS pop of 250 similar to Reading. 1 critical injury 10 minor injuries

*  Windows were blown out and a barn was destroyed from a possible tornado in Arcola, MO.

* Numerous reports of powerlines down, trees uprooted, structural damage as well as possible injuries in Pittsburg / Chicopee, KS area.

*  Law enforcement reports a large tornado near Lamar Heights, MO. at 11:05PM.  Lamar & Stockton Lake is in the path of this tornado.

*  LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS tornado is on the ground near Lamar Heights, Missouri! Take cover IMMEDIATELY!

*  A 56 mph wind gust was reported in Kansas City shortly after 10pm CT from a severe storm.

*  7 miles west of Arkansas city, Kansas, winds gusted to 79 mph.

*  Golf ball sized hail and 70 mph winds near Hillsboro, KS on Kansas state road 15.

*  73 mph wind gust north of Wichita in Mcpherson.

*  Winds gusted to 60mph in Wichita.

(2/28) Wednesday Storm Chances

WAVE 3 WEATHER
The latest HRRR continues to develop showers & thunderstorms into the overnight hours.  As upper level winds increase more and more storms will fire.  this will bring storms, some strong to the area during the early morning hours Wednesday.
2:00 AM - 5:00 AM
Scattered showers & storms

5:00 AM - 8:00 AM
Showers & storms likely, heavy rain possible with totals exceeding one inch in a few places.
A few storms could be strong to severe.  With sufficient shear in the atmosphere we could see some rotation and therefore an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

8:00 AM - 11:00 PM
Main rains move east with scattered storms still possible...

11:00 PM - 3:00 PM
Storms develop ahead of the cold front - depending on how the atmosphere can recover from the morning convection will determine how strong the afternoon storms can be.  It's possible to see a few breaks in the clouds that will lead to destabilization... if this occurs strong to severe storms would be possible, especially along and east of Interstate 65 during this time.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
A line of thunderstorms has developed across southeast MO and southern IL. Timing of this line brings it into the western portion of the forecast area around 05Z. Mesoscale models continue to develop more convection overnight as the low level jet ramps up.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER - DAY 2
Widespread showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing in the vicinity of the advancing cold front at the start of the period... and eastward across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys in the zone of warm advection ahead of the system.  The ongoing precipitation/cloud cover will act to hinder heating/destabilization during the day... but expect ample CAPE -- aided by northward advection of higher Theata E air...  to support ongoing storms.  Though instability should remain limited in most areas... very strong kinematic evnironment will exist with very strong/quasi-unidirectional west southwesterly flow expected throughout the cloud-bearing layer.  While limited potential for hail and a couple of isolated tornadoes appear possible... main severe threat this period will likely be damaging winds -- with fast-moving lines/line segments.   The greatest threat should occur through the afternoon along and west of the Appalachians -- including the mid and upper Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.  Some threat may cross the Appalachians overnight as the weakening front advances... with threat possibly reaching mid-Atlantic/Carolina Coast throught the end of the period.

4:00 PM WEATHER UPDATE

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON

Let the good times roll. Temperatures will continue to warm over the next few hours. Our southern counties have already hit 70 degrees while our Northern counties hold onto the 50s. So what gives? Well, there's a warm front to our South and West that continues to push warmer air Northward in turn meaning an increase in temps from our Southern counties with drastically cooler temps in our Northern counties. Temps won't dip much as we head into the overnight hours but conditions will change dramatically. We have a bit of a complicated forecast to discuss...here's my latest thinking.

 

TONIGHT

As I mentioned, I expect overnight temps to remain in the mid to upper 50s. Perhaps a dip in temps before midnight with temperatures warming another degree or two as we head into sunrise with the invasion of the warm front. The front will trigger a chance for scattered showers and storms. We expect them to develop to our Southwest and push Northeast as we head into sunrise. We expect this first round of storms (midnight to sunrise) to be heavy rain makers. They could produce large hail and damaging winds...also accompanied a lot of lightning. While the shear in the atmosphere will be impressive so an isolated tornado can't be ruled out...to me, at this time, it looks like it will be more of a wind event if anything. With that said, it's likely any of the warnings will go tornadic as there will be so much shear in the atmosphere. This is round one of our one-two punch...the second will arrive tomorrow.

 

TOMORROW

The big question is whether or not we'll see a break in the activity tomorrow morning...and if so will the break be long enough to rebound from the morning rain. We do know a cold front is going to move through the region...and given the data we have it is going to be a potent cold front. Damaging winds look to be possible in addition to more of a tornadic threat. We expect dew points to increase into the 60s which will allow for instability to increase. Given recent data CAPE values will also be enough to support severe storms in addition to enough wind in the atmosphere...potentially twisting at different layers which increases our tornado threat. Again, this event hasn't happened and we know if we're missing an element it's hard for severe storms to form. So while the SPC has issued a SLIGHT risk of severe storms tomorrow in addition to our model data hinting at the potential...it doesn't mean it's set in stone. It's something to watch and monitor...we'll have our latest thoughts coming up on WAVE 3 news.  

SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE

The weather is quite nice today with some sunshine and above normal temperatures; however, today is the calm before the storm.  Storms move in... mainly after midnight, and hang around until the early afternoon tomorrow.  Here's the timeline:

Midnight tonight - 2am:  60% chance

2am-6am:  90% chance

6am-8am:  80% chance

8am-10am:  70% chance

10am-12pm:  60% chance

12pm-2pm:  30% chance

____________________________________________________________________________

Here's the outlook for tomorrow:

Main threat is wind damage.  Secondary threat is hail.  Third threat (least likely) is an isolated tornado.  This heavy rain that these storms could bring through could negatively affect the morning rush hour for tomorrow morning... especially with the wet roads and reduced visibility.

__________________________________________________________________________

From the NWS:

Severe Storms Possible Late Tonight and Wednesday

A strong low pressure system will move from the central Plains to the upper Midwest late tonight, dragging a cold front near the region. The first wave of thunderstorms will begin after midnight with the best threat for a severe storm across south central Kentucky. Along with damaging winds being the main threat, small hail, brief heavy rainfall and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. A brief lull in activity is expected late Wednesday morning, before a second round of storms develop just ahead of the passing cold front. Damaging winds will be the main threat with these storms, along with small hail and locally heavy rainfall.

 

 

ARE YOU READY FOR A WARM UP? SURE WISH IT DIDN'T BRING A STORM CHANCE WITH IT

This week’s forecast eerily resembles last week’s forecast. Starting the week great…then going downhill mid week. We have a lot of ups and downs to take us through the end of February and beginning of March. In between those ups and downs we’ll have contrasting temperatures which will allow for an active weather pattern to develop…in the form of showers and thunderstorms. Let’s focus on the immediate forecast before I get ahead of myself…

TODAY

Beautiful! It doesn’t get much better than this. A cold front continues to push through the region. You’re probably thinking…where’s the rain? When is the temperature going to dip to 20 degrees after temperatures in the 60s today. Well, we won’t really have either of those things to battle with this front. This is a weak cold front, and a dry front at that meaning we won’t see any precipitation out of this frontal system today. We’ll see a bit of a warm up ahead of it in addition to a shift in the winds but that will be about it. The front has passed through our Northwest counties already which has hindered temps from rising much more than the upper 50s. So, expect cooler conditions North and West of the river for the rest of the afternoon. Along , South, and East of the river temperatures have jumped into the low to mid 60s. While we won’t feel the effects of a cold spell today…temperatures will become cooler in the overnight forecast especially compared to where we started this morning.

TONIGHT

Temperatures region wide will dip into the low to mid 30s. Areas away from the city may even cool into the upper 20s…especially North and West of the city. After getting through this evening warmer temperatures are expected over the next several days. That warm up means an active weather pattern.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND

As you wake up tomorrow morning you’ll notice more clouds than what we’ll see today. This is an indication that change is lurking to our West. Cloud cover will increase throughout the day tomorrow ahead of a developing low pressure. We’ll still hold onto some sunshine tomorrow…enough to warm us into the low to mid 60s for the second day in a row. As we head into Tuesday evening a warm front is expected to bring us scattered showers and storms overnight Tuesday…developing in Western KY as early as 6pm and influencing the metro area by 8pm. There is the potential for some of these storms to turn strong or severe. That’s battle number 1. Number 2 arrives Wednesday morning/midday. This is when we expect the cold front to move through the state bringing us another chance for storms. I expect these storms to form into more of a line which will pose the threat for damaging straight line winds in addition to brief spin ups. Heavy rain also looks likely in addition to hail…with the best chance for hail producing storms to be overnight Tuesday. Temperatures Wednesday may reach 70 degrees…adding more instability into the atmosphere. Dew point readings are also expected to top out in the 60s which would allow storms to form quicker. This forecast is based on data from this morning and afternoon…so as you can imagine it will change 100 times so make sure to check back. The thing that is tricky with these systems is that they haven’t even formed yet. We are doing our best with the knowledge and experience we have to forecast a system that isn’t even on the map yet. We have to track it in from the West coast and watch it’s development prior to arriving here. Like last week, dew point numbers will be crucial this go around for the development of strong/severe storms. When we give you forecasts for storms a day or two out it’s important to remember this isn’t set in stone. We experienced this last week as a perfect track for severe storms developed over the region…but all of the ingredients to produce severe weather must be in place for this to occur. If you’re missing one…last week it was instability and marginal dew points, then no matter how “severe” the potential may be the reality of the situation doesn’t develop into much. We’ll continue to keep a close eye on this system as we advance in time. The SPC has outlined all of the WAVE 3 viewing area in a slight risk for severe storms. So like us, they have noted a storm to watch. We’ll have the latest coming up on WAVE 3 news at 5pm and I’m back from 7-8pm on WAVE 3. Have a wonderful afternoon…enjoy this beautiful weather today! J