Weather Blog

STORMS AROUND THE CORNER

Today's weather is sooooooo nice.  Even though a cold front is coming through today, it won't bring us any rain (a dry cold front), but it will slow the warm up of temperatures just a bit.  Regardless, we will still manage to warm up to around 60 degrees.  From the NWS Louisville:

A second cold front comes through Wednesday, and this one will bring rain and storms.  In fact, we will be under a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday.

Here's a breakdown of the expected precipitation which will likely begin during the late afternoon or after sunset tomorrow.

Storm TALK! Sunday Edition

Quite cold this morning.  Temps dipped into the low 20s and even some upper teens in spots.

We will warm up dramatically this afternoon with full sun.  Highs will vary from 54-57 this afternoon.

There will be a weak c0ld front tomorrow that would argue for a cooler today, but with dry air and full sun again Monday---I kept the highs basically the same if not a tad warmer with slightly drier air in place. 

It will be Tues/Wed that our next main event takes place.

GFS/NAM have slowed the arrival of the warm front Tuesday by 3-5 hours...so I lowered the high temps a bit Tuesday as we may not tap into the warmer air until Tuesday night.

GFS has shows the warm front moving in Tuesday evening.

We could see some strong storms with the passage of the warm front.  The shear is impressive along the warm front and sometimes we can get rotating storms in those setups. Nothing widespread expected...just an isolated case that could develop.

The warm sector takes over Tuesday night.

This means showers/storms during the night...with temps holding in the 50s.

The cold front then arrives Wednesday morning from the west, but the main "squall-line" of storms will be well ahead of it and pushes through in the morning hours.  Therefore the severe storm threat looks low despite high winds aloft.

The interesting part about this is that the models want to delay the actual passage of the cold front around mid afternoon Wednesday.  If that happens, we have a chance for some sunshine and perhaps a 2nd line of storms that could develop.  Best chance for that line of storms looks to be east of I 65---but we'll have to watch that trend to see if that indeed takes place.

SPC does not have any of our area outlined with a risk for severe storms, and I would agree with that right now given the current timing data.  If the break between the pre=frontal squall-line and the actual cold front during the day Wednesday gets larger---that may change the thinking.

There is another low moving through Friday.  As I mentioned yesterday, it will be tough to switch the winds around to the south in time for this storm. Just like we saw the other day---dewpoints may struggle to rise for thunderstorms.  It will all depend on the speed of the wed storm system and any residual impacts that cannot be seen on the models just yet.

Next weekend isn't as clear cut.  In fact, snow lovers will want to watch this part of the forecast (there isn't much to watch this week ..hehe). 

The storm from Friday will drape a cold front through the region Saturday.  The question will be how far south does that cold front go.  The reason is because the models hint that a 2nd low may form at the tail of that front and head NE.  EURO/DGES/NOGAPS all hint that low could move far enough to give portions of KY a snow event Sunday/Monday. 

Below is the GFS which does NOT show that risk...takes the front way south with any low development moving off shore.  But I did highlight where other models place the new low development.

It is far off so no need to worry. I am sure given the winter pattern...the GFS will end up more correct and the pattern will remain progressive enough to move that cold air fast and prepare for another warm up.

But the snow lovers have asked if there is ANYTHING out there showing up--and that is the only thing I see right now and it has a VERY low chance of happening.

Nevertheless, this week will be a spring-like week for our area.  Enjoy the warm weather!!

 

The march to March

Its been a frustrating couple of weeks for those in search of extreme weather. Last weekends snow missed to the south and SE and this weeks severe weather potential did not come together. With little change seen in the overall pattern we could see more of the same. March has brought some great snow storms at times, but I don't see enough cold potential for that right now. Realistically we only have a couple of more weeks to get a measurable snow. This week the focus is on rain. The severe weather potential in my view is low as once again the more unstable air may have difficulty getting in here before the cold front and upper support do. At least, it will be warm again with several days in the 60s next  week.

Storm and some snow TALK! Saturday Edition

Chilly start to the day...with not much improvement today.  There will be periods of snow flurries/snow showers along and north of I 64.  One of those deals where you will sunshine...a dark cloud comes over with flurries then back to sunshine.

The warm-up will actually start Sunday.  In fact, we could see a rather large temperature swing up to 30 degrees from Sunday morning to Sunday afternoon.  One of those days that starts off cold and ends up nice :)

The warm-up will continue until Monday with 60s moving back.

Then we deal with 2 issues:

- warm front Tuesday PM
- cold front Wednesday AM

Both will bring the risk of showers/storms.  The interaction of both will also determine how strong the storms end up being.

I will start with the GFS.

Tuesday PM- Warm front arrives.  Showers/storms along it possible.  Some could be strong as highs surge into the 60s (70?).

Overnight Tuesday: We briefly push fully into the warm sector.  But it will be at night.  Not much instability.  The moisture values do look high..and with high winds aloft, that may be enough to lead to a strong storm risk with the cold front passage Wednesday AM.

Wednesday AM: Cold front pushes through with showers and storms...best chance for stronger storms to the east.

The EURO has a weaker low idea with it tracking a bit closer to us.   It is slower with the low..so there would be more of a storm threat during the day Wednesday.

SPC does have an early outlook out...to our SW where the warm sector will have good timing on Tuesday.

SUMMARY:  I think we will have to watch the warm front storms on Tuesday for any strong potential. Those could actually be stronger than with the cold front.  After that, it will highly depend on the timing fo the cold front and how much rain we pick up from the warm front. If we keep the rain around...the cold front will move into a stable setup for us.  Timing of early morning doesn't allow for much instability either.  Best chances would be in east KY Wed PM.  So right now, I am not overly impressed with the risk for severe storms.  We literally be in the triple point of the action and with so much going on...it may be difficult for the atmosphere to have a moment to "reset" and prime up for storms for the cold front.  It is just too early to get specific as we may  not know the timing of both fronts UNTIL late Monday.  We will keep an eye on it.  Regardless, I think the winds aloft argue for another windy period for us...storms or not.  I kept the high in of 70 Tuesday, but if storms fire on the warm front too quickly---we won't reach that.  I seriously doubt we will fall much temp wise Tuesday night...likely stay in the 50s.  And if we stay rainy, we may not make it to the 60s on Wednesday. 

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After this low passes, we cool off some...but nothing like the current setup today.  In fact, we will see the winds quickly turn around to the south again for our next storm which arrives Friday.

GFS sees the storm well. 

It is a strong low and a bit closer to us.  The question on this one is how quickly can we turn the west wind around to a south wind from Thursday into Friday.  If that change is too slow---dewpoints will have a hard timing surging north.  If they turn around in time--- I actually think this storm could pose more of strong storm threat than the Wed one.  Either way, Thursday will be our only break from rain it looks like.

What is interesting about the Friday storm is it will have much colder air to work with.  GFS/EURO both want to "punch" the cold air fast into the area by late Friday into Saturday. That may allow it to catch up wtih the cold front and change the rain to snow before ending.
GFS shows the best chance for that in east KY Saturday:

EURO is similar, but also wants to shows a quick shortwave moving in next Sunday to give us some snow showers.

SUMMARY: Showers/storms look to increase Friday.  Dewpoints will be the factor there on how strong they will be .     There will be a chance to see a brief period of snow before the rain ends early Saturday.   Cannot rule out snow showers with a weak system next Sunday into Monday.

So next week looks active with (2) strong areas of low pressure impacting the region.  It will be  a windy week for sure. 

I would not worry on the severe storm threat at this time as there are still too many uncertainties as I outlined above.  We will have more info once the storm forms and we nail down the timing.

Until then---enjoy the blue skies the next few days!!!!

Storm TALK! Friday Edition

Running low on energy today so this won't be a long post :)  The past few weather events have been a forecasting headache and I could really use some high pressure in the region for about 5 days ;)

Having said that, I don't control the weather...and there is weather to discuss.

We lucked out pretty good from the severe threat yesterday.  We said the main issue was going to be sunshine and dewpoints.  We got the sunshine...but the dewpoint surge never could make it into our area.  Our southern counties got into the zone...and that is where the core of the warnings too place.  Remember, for severe weather...is it like making a good pie.  You have all the ingredients...but if you don't measure them well---it will taste like ...well you know. 

Today, our friends along the east coast are seeing...a good pie...coming into play. Look at all the tornado watches out:

And poor South Carolina, 4 different watches covering the state.  Having forecast there for 3 years...events like this are not that common...they rarely see a moderate risk or higher there.

Back at home, it is the gusty winds....sleet and cold weather that is making headlines.

We should see the layers of the atmosphere cool enough for the sleet/rain mix to go to all snow tonight.  Mostly flurries though a burst of heavier snow here and there can't be ruled out.  No accumulations or problems from this expected right now.

Saturday will feature a mix of sun and clouds.  Models vary on how much sunshine we will actually see, so went partly cloudy for now.  It will be a chilly day into the low 40s.

Sunday will feature a rapid warmup.  I decided to go higher than what the models are showing as they never handle warm-ups were here. Especially with lower dewpoints expected.  So I think well into the 50s Sunday...with 60s and perhaps some 70s next week.

There will be a pretty strong warm front passing through Tuesday.  Question there will be how much cloud cover/showers/storms along that warm surge.  That will impact high temps.

The low pressure then deepens to 984mb in the northern Plains Wednesday!  That will be a blizzard for someone.  For us, it will likely lead to thunderstorms.

Now the GFS is pretty aggressive on the timing of the cold front ...pushing it through early Wednesday morning.  Not a great time for instability...but if it can be realized---horrible time for severe weather with many asleep.  So we will have to nail down the timing better once we get closer. just too early.

The strong low pressure will be occluding on Wednesday (weakening)...so that will put into question the wind fields over us.  GFS is agressive again wtih very strong winds over us Wed AM.

GFS also says 50 deg dewpoints moving in.

SUMMARY: Will we see severe storms out of this?  We do not know that yet.  What we DO know is that a strong low pressure is likely to move into the Plains states next week.   The devil will be in the details on instability/dewpoints/sunshine/high temps.  With it 4-5 days away...we cannot answer those questions.  This isn't HYPE...just a heads up that this will be the next system to watch.  Hopefully we will get lucky again and the parameters do not line up.

Looking ahead, I do see at least 1-2 more very strong low pressures impacting the country throughout March.  Get used to the gusty winds today, with so many strong low pressures in the region---March is shaping up to be a windy month.  It is our windiest on average.

While we do not hold the record of a top ten 10 city when it comes to average wind speeds, we did make the list for some of the highest wind gusts EVER:

New York, New York	125		Sep 16, 2010	Thunderstorm in Queens
Miami, Florida	115		Aug 24, 1992	Hurricane Andrew
Phoenix, Arizona	115		Aug 14, 1996	Thunderstorm
Jacksonville, Florida	108		May 27, 1997	Thunderstorm
Orlando, Florida	105		Aug 14, 2004	Hurricane Charley
Portland, Oregon	104		Oct 12, 1962	Columbus Day Windstorm
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania	100		Aug 11, 1992	Thunderstorm
Nashville, Tennessee	99		May 5, 1999	Thunderstorm
Louisville, Kentucky	92		July 8, 2001	Thunderstorm
Miami, Florida	92		Oct 25, 2005	Hurricane Wilma

By the way, here is the Old Farmer's Almanac forecast for March in our area:

MARCH 2012: temperature 48° (4° above avg.); precipitation 4" (0.5" above avg. east, 1" below west); Mar 1-7: Sunny, then showers, turning warm; Mar 8-12: Rain to snow, then snow showers, cold; Mar 13-17: Rain and snow showers, cool; Mar 18-20: Sunny, warm; Mar 21-26: T-storms, then sunny, warm; Mar 27-31: T-storms, warm.

Garbage Cans and Polar Bears

You may have to drag your garbage cans from the neighbor's yard when you get home from work today.  Hopefully they won't be too mad.  WIND ADVISORY is in effect until 7pm this evening.  We could have wind gusts up to 40mph today as cooler air moves into WAVE Country. 

From the NWS Louisville:

* TIMING: WEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST FROM THE LATE MORNING TO
  MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

* WINDS:  WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS: HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ON NORTH SOUTH ROADS SUCH AS  INTERSTATE 65...INTERSTATE 75...AND HIGHWAYS 31...31E...AND 31W  WILL NEED TO USE CAUTION TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG  ENOUGH TO KNOCK DOWN WEAKLY ROOTED TREES AND LIMBS...AS WELL AS  GARBAGE CANS AND OUTDOOR FURNITURE.

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Temperatures will cool down today instead of warming up as cooler air from the west blows in behind a cold front.  We do have a chance of some light rain or drizzle through the morning and early afternoon.  As temperatures continue to drop during the late afternoon and evening, we may see a few sleet pellets mixing in with some light rain.

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It will be a chilly but sunny morning tomorrow  for the Polar Bear Plunge in Louisville.  As those plungers are jumping into the Ohio River, temperatures will be in the 30s!  Yikes! 

I'll be out there emceeing with 84-WHAS Superstar Tony Cruise, but no way am I jumping in.  I'm not above pushing Tony in though.  ha ha

This is a super cool event that I am a part of every year.  All this craziness goes to benefit Special Olympics.  If you would like to help out, you can show up for the tom foolery tomorrow morning, or you can stay in your warm home and just text "soky" to 80888 to donate $10.  How easy is that?

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8:59 PM UPATE
Still some strong storms across Green/Taylor/Adair we are watching.  Looks good for the rest of us right now.  The warning below did produce dime size hail in Nelson County that covered the ground. 

8:11 PM UPDATE
Severe Thunderstorm WARNING for Bullitt, Nelson, Spencer and Shelby County until 8:45 PM

6:38 PM UPDATE
Still no watch, and for good reason.  Parameters are just on the edge for storms to pop.  And the cold front is getting closer. Atmosphere still have lots of shear and instability to our west/southwest.  It has been capped so far...but will have to see if this breaks last minute. If not, in the clear.  If they do break...they can turn severe quickly. Just a few more hours to go folks.

5:24 PM UPDATE
Still watching for development.  You can see the shear in west KY...once the cutoff near Paducah passes over us...the threat will shut off locally.  So in order to get storms here...they have to fire soon in that zone.  If not, threat for storms will be east of the Metro.  We will keep an eye on this.

5:03 PM UPDATE
Spotty showers trying to pop out there now across S IN.  Nothing severe.  Still waiting on SPC regarding the issuance of the Tornado Watch.

Dewpoints continue to go up slowly.  Upper 40s locally...50s all over must of west and central KY.

3:59 PM UPDATE
Here is what is likely the "firing zone" for storms to begin.  Moisture convergence starting to increase.  This lines up with the area they plan to issue the Tornado Watch.

3:45 PM UPDATE
You can see the push of the dewpoints now across W TN.  The dewpoint surge should push into west and central KY over the next few hours. 

3:23 PM UPDATE

JUST IN---SPC plans a Tornado WATCH in the next 2-4 hours for our area. 

Latest Temps:

Latest Dewpoints:

You can see on the latest analysis showing how the winds veer as you travel south to north east of the low pressure.  It is that zone where the switch from S to E where tornadoes could develop.  Right along the Ohio River basically.

3:09 PM UPDATE
SPC keeps the SLIGHT RISK in tact for the same area....tornado and hail parameters remained the same, but the damaging wind threat was expanded some for much of KY.

Still on track for storms to fire this evening and push east after midnight.

 

1:51 PM UPDATE
Temps now into the low to mid 60s across KY...low 70s southern KY.

Here are the latest dewpoints.  Still on the low side with a slight surge now in far west KY.  Waiting on the dewpoints to rise more to see the threat go up or not.

1:00 PM UPDATE
You can see the winds ahead of the 900 mb low coming out of the SE right now.  Winds a few miles up are out of the due west.  So this setups the shear for rotation in the area.

Just have to see how much moisture gets pulled north into this.  Monitoring this hour by hour.

12:42 PM UPDATE

Here are the latest outlooks as of noon from SPC.

SLIGHT RISK

Tornado Risk                         Wind Damage Risk                       Hail Risk

                              

We now have full sun with temperatures surging fast into the 60s...dewpoints lagging some into the 50s.

Current Temps:

Current Dewpoints:

Winds are now backing to the SE ahead of the main low. Shear is coming into line.  The issue will be how high those dewpoints get. 

Here is the latest WRF model which I think has the best handle on this.

4pm--- Storms fire to our west.

6pm-- Storms in S IN organize into an MCS...with high wind threat (hence the higher threat of that up above.  Embedded tornadoes possible)

8pm: Main MCS passes very close to I 64.  But, a new line of storms tries to fire just west of I 65.

10pm: New line of storms, some severe, passes through the region

1am:  Storms push east.

So this could be a double threat of the MCS across IN/KY ...likely I 64, and the 2nd line that forms on the bottom half of the MCS down into TN.

Still lots of iffs.

Severe Weather Possible

Sunshine looks pretty outside, but it is allowing temperatures to soar.  This will add to the potential to severe weather this afternoon.  The latest severe weather risk outlook will update any minute now.  Brian Goode will give you the details in just a few minutes on WAVE3 Listens Live at 12pm.

I just wanted to show you a couple more severe weather indicators for this afternoon and evening.  Here's the map for CAPE, which is basically the energy in the atmosphere to lift air in order to create potentially strong thunderstorms.

Part of WAVE Country falls in the 1000-1500 level.  This is not very impressive, but showing a little instability. 

• CAPE > 500 J/kg: convection is possible with extreme synoptic forcing
• CAPE > 1500 J/kg: moderate convection is likely
• CAPE > 2500 J/kg: strong convection is likely

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The Lifted Index is showing a little more promise for severe weather.

A small area around Louisville shows a lifted index of -4 to -6.  Here's the LI guide:

-1 to -4	Marginal instability
-4 to -7	Large instability
-8 or less	Extreme instability

 

From the NWS:

Severe Risk Today

Even though things are calm right now, we are expecting a chance of severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening.  Here are the details:

Who:  All of WAVE Country is under a SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS

When:  3pm-9pm

Threats:  The main threat is damaging winds.  Secondary threat is large hail.  Third threat is an isolated tornado.

DAMAGING WIND THREAT:

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LARGE HAIL THREAT:

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TORNADO THREAT:

StormTALK! (tiny bit of snow talk) Wednesday Edition

First "StormTALK" of the season today.  I will break this down more down below with the latest data we have on this developing storm.

I did want to piggy back on the stats that Kevin posted last night about low-snow winters.  I know many of you have been asking about this. 

I decided to do some digging into the month of March in Kentuckiana.

Normally in March, Louisville sees about 3.9" of snow.  I laugh when I type that as we never seem to have a "normal" month so I think the term "average of the extremes" is a better way to say it :)

Here is a look at the past 5 March's in Louisville which includes the year and total snowfall for the month.

2007   Trace   Last report of snow: March 4th      Highlights: Mid 80s recorded by late month
2008    10.6"   Last report of snow: March 23rd   Highlights: Large temperatures swings. 70s to snow

2009   Trace   Last report of snow: March 1st       Highlights: Several days in the 60s/70s
2010   Trace   Last report of snow: March 26th    Highlights: Fairly quiet month
2011   3/10"   Last report of snow:  March 30th   Highlights: Few surges into the 80s

The one thing that stood out in the data above when I looked it over was that when we saw large temperatures swings from one week to another, snow was recorded.  When we gradually warmed up...snow was very much unlikely.

Obviously, odds are in our favor that this month would feature at least a trace.  We have not had a snow-less March in at least the past 5 years.  But a trace isn't anything to be excited about either.

The most snow we ever had on the ground at any one time in March was 3/23/68 with 11" on the ground.

Here are the top 10 snowiest March's

Top Snowiest March's
22.9"  1960
14.0"  1896
13.5"  1996
12.7"  1968
12.1"  1887
10.8"  1947
10.7"  1970
10.6"  2008
10.0"  1975
 9.4"  1978

We have had flurries reported as late at May 20th...back in 1898.

Latest time we saw frozen precip in modern times...was Derby Day in 1989, sleet fell.

So just some fun stats I thought I would share as some of you have asked about it. 

I do see some large temperature swings over the next couple of weeks.  Does that mean snow could still fall?  Who knows.  I do know our winter forecasts this year have been a bust.  No way around that one.

Now let's focus on the storm threat.  I will say we could see some spotty showers tonight or rumbles of thunder, but the low dewpoints will keep things calm tonight.  The main issue is Thursday late afternoon/night.

Here is the latest outlook from SPC

 

And the % risk for severe... which is at 15%.  If there is an upgrade to 30%, that likely will be south.

 

 

We will need the wind energy aloft, decent dewpoints and instability to develop severe thunderstorms.

The first one looks pretty easy to figure out.

Here are the winds just above us tomorrow afternoon:  notice the highest fields just to our south.

GFS                                                 NAM

                

Dewpoints today are very low, so we have a huge climb to get us into the 50s tomorrow afternoon to have enough moisture for storms to build on.  Here are the forecast dewpoints tomorrow:

GFS                                                  NAM
                

 Instability is a  combination of the moisture and sunshine over the region tomorrow.  Will we be sunny or cloudy?  That question is always a tough one to answer prior to the event.  I think you all know that sunshine with a front approaching and moisture/warmth in place in February is never a good thing.  So that is why the SLIGHT RISK was prompted. 

Here are the CAPES (one factor used for instability) for Thursday afternoon. 

GFS                                                 NAM

                

GFS is about 250 to 300....NAM higher at about 750.  Which for late FEB is pretty high.

So I think this one will come down to our dewpoints and sky cover.  If we can get dewpoints into the 50s with a partly sunny skies---this risk can be realized.  The closer the dewpoints get to 60 degrees...the higher that threat will climb.  But that may be a huge challenge with this system.

There is no doubt that the best chance for higher dewpoints/sunshine will be to the south of KY.

In fact, the latest EHI (used for tornadoes) is pretty high to our south. That will be the main spot for tornadoes.

Timing looks to be late afternoon into mid evening.  Storms likely will fire just east of I 65 or right on top of us. 

That means we will have to watch the radar/satellite/dewpoint trends throughout the day and we will keep you posted.  Hopefully nothing too intense will develop. 

 As far as snow, there is a chance for some flurries/snow showers Friday afternoon/night.  GFS/EURO still hint at this pretty good for falling temps Friday into the 30s by afternoon.  Likely staying in the 30s Saturday with sunshine determining if we will reach the 40s or not.  Which is still possible.

Here is the GFS showing the snow showers/flurries Friday afternoon:

Warm ground temps and the light snow rate will melt the snow as touches the ground. No issues expected from this at this time.

Looking ahead, another warm up.  Another strong low in fact.  GFS paints a 996mb low just to our NW a week from today.  That would set the stage AGAIN for a strong/severe thunderstorm threat.

It should be noted the NOGAPS/EURO have this strong low to our south and says snowstorm for KY.  But given the indicies, I think the track north of us seems more likely right now.

Overall, March looks busy with many surprises ahead.