Well, if there is one time this winter we have a shot at a decent snow...this is it.
Now the fun begins on tracking and analyzing this thing to death. You will likely hear/see lots of opinions on this one as southern lows are tricky. This is especially true for those that emergy from the SW corner of the country. The timing of the energy of this system out in the west coast and a smaller piece of energy diving in from the north is going to be KEY in how this turns out over the weekend. Even the smallest difference in timing/intensity will determine who gets a flat out snowstorm...and who gets a dusting or nothing at all. The way it is shaping up right now, our viewing area is going to be divided with just such a setup. Though I will say that at this point---it will be our Kentucky counties most at risk compared to our Indiana friends.
Let's start on where this booger is right now.
Way out near Baja, CA. Not very impressive looking huh?
So that is the energy we will be tracking over the next 24 hours.
The GFS takes this energy and moves it into east TX by later Friday. Near Dallas in fact.
By Saturday night, the piece of energy from the north shows up. And the two attempt to meet up as the CA energy enters northern Mississippi.
The NAM is similar...though it is a big stronger with the CA energy over northern MS.
The EURO disagrees. It moves the energy from CA to off the TX shore. That is about 200 miles to the south of GFS/NAM.
CANADIAN also agrees with the EURO. Takes the track more over southern AL. Barely clipping KY.
NOGAPS...the most suppressed. Keeps all precip out of KY.
So it is becoming increasingly clear that how the energy travels over TX the next 24 hours will be the deciding factor on the impact on KY.
It should be noted that the GFS has been the most consistent for several days now. NAM is following suite with GFS so far. The EURO/Canadian have been the wafflers. So at this point, I think the NAM/GFS are the two models to trend moreso than the foreign models.
Obviously, given the uncertainity...it is too early to discuss amounts.
The potential is certainly there for significant snow. This storm has the potential to produce a 6-12" band with it along its track if enough cold air was able to be produced. That is the reason so many are watching this one carefully. Right now, the only thing we can tell is that it looks like our southern counties are most at risk for accumulating snow with Indiana on the very low end of that chance.
I know, not very specific...but that is the best we can do right now with so many unanswered questions.
Speaking of the cold air, I do think a stronger/northern track will lead to low temps diving to 30-32 Saturday night and likely in the mid 30s for highs Sunday with 20s Sunday night.
This snow would be a heavy wet snowfall. Roads likely slushy, but slick. The icy road threat may not come to light until Monday morning.
Again, that is based on the idea that significant snow did fall in our area.
I did want to show the NAM simulated radar. It shows how sharp the cutoff will be on the snowfall.
Sunday morning 1am:
Sunday afternoon 1pm:
This could literally be a situation where Louisville see 1/2" and Shepherdsville see 3". See how difficult that is to forecast this far out?
So my advice is not to get too worked up over this just yet. This will not be a winter storm that paralyzes the state for days or weeks. In fact, we should surge well into the 50s again next week. So Sunday and perhaps Monday morning are most at risk to difficult travel right now. So unless you are out of bread/milk, no need to rush to any stores.
Just stay close. We will keep you posted on the trends as we gather more info tonight and early Friday. This time tomorrow...we could see Winter Storm WATCHES coming out for portions of the TN/Ohio Valleys.
BOTS!!!
YES!!! Bring on the snow...although it has been an "easy" winter with all of the mild temps...I want a snowstorm...BOTS!
Posted by: slb827@yahoo.com | February 17, 2012 at 12:30 AM
Can you help me figure out a driving weather situation? Having just relocated to Kentucky (Elizabethtown), I am highly confused. We will be traveling Saturday AM to Gatlinburg, TN, returning Monday midday, I am highly concerned about traveling if there is a chance of not returning Monday. Do you think that is a possibility looking at the routes we would need to travel? Thank you for your help!!
** Driver-- I think Saturday travel will be just fine. You way back will be okay if you wait until daylight. You may have some decent snow during Sunday and it will depend how good they keep the roads there clear early Monday. Drive safe!! - BG
Posted by: concerned driver | February 17, 2012 at 06:39 AM