Weather Blog

MCS on Sunday?

I know, what is a MCS?  It stands for Mesoscale Convective System.  They have been called other things such as MCC, Mesoscale Convective Complex and MCV...Mesoscale Convective Vortex.   Either way, the idea is that this is a complex of thunderstorms that are very common in NW wind flows.  They sometimes look like a mini low pressure with a warm front/cold front look to them.  They can be dangerous however when it comes to high winds as it bows out.  Tornado threat is low, but most common on the bottom/south edge of them.  We typically see these in June/July.

Tomorrow is a good setup for one to form to our north.  HPC shows the showers/storms forming in N IL.

They like to follow a track..like a locomotive.  That would be the warm front that will pass through tomorrow.  Where that front sets up is key on how close this complex will reach us.

As the MCS tracks south east, it will hunt for high dewpoint areas...so it is likely it will take a right turn at some point like I have drawn below.

As of right now, this impact looks to stay just east of our viewing area.   But I only am posting this as there is a chance the warm front could be closer than forecast---and if so---the MCS may impact our eastern counties Sunday afternoon.

SPC has a small outlook out for this now:  only 5% which is below SLIGHT RISK level.

 

Next SPC update is at 130pm.

UPDATE: SPC just upgraded SE IN/OH and far NE KY into a SLIGHT RISK for severe storms with the latest upset.

I would plan for a nice/warm day for now...with at least some cirrus clouds steaming over in the afternoon from this.  We will watch the trends carefully to see how it evolves.  Still have 24 hours.

New Tornado Warnings May Be Coming Soon

NOAA/NWS are experimenting with the notion of issuing various types of Tornado WARNINGS in the future.

Right now, there is just one type...a Tornado WARNING.

But they are wanting to break the threat in (3) different types of tornado warnings:

• Standard Tornado Warning: Which is being issued by National Weather Service Offices currently.
• PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Tornado Warning: Which will mean a tornado has actually been spotted on the ground.
• Tornado Emergency: Which means there is a large violent tornado on the ground producing damage, and is headed towards a populated city.

 

Examples of such would have been last Friday when the tornado hit Fern Creek.  That likely would have been a PDS Tornado WARNING.

Pekin to Henryville, IN's event likely would have been a Tornado Emergency.  (they actually did issue this at one point but it does not get issued on the wires like a typical warning).

NWS is going to test this starting MONDAY APRIL 2nd with (6) weather offices across the country.  Most are in KS and MO.  None are in IN or KY.

Depending on the results of that test, we could see our local offices taking part in the new warnings in the coming months. 

The fear is that the public has become "used" to the term TORNADO WARNING and may not take them seriously due to false alarms and/or just radar indication circulations that never touch down.

They hope the new warnings will allow clarity and prompt better response.

Personally, I like the idea.  I agree that radar indicated tornado warnings are MUCH different than a large wedge tornado on the ground doing damage.  I think the more specific we can get...the better.

But what do YOU think?  Good idea or not?  Post your comments and let us know.

Severe Weather UPDATES

6:38 PM UPDATE
Watching a bowing segment that may clip NE Jennings and aim for Ripley County in Indiana shortly.  It likely will contains winds of 50 to 60 mph.

Otherwise, it will be storms to our west in IL that will take a while to get here...but those are the the ones to watch to see how well they can maintain.

6:06 PM UPDATE
Storms still slowly sagging south.  May slow timing for Louisville Metro down a bit to after 10pm until Midnight.  Northern areas from Bedford to Seymour likely still on track for 8-10pm.

In other news, Louisville tied a record high today of 83 set back in 1977.  This was our 9th 80 degree day this month...a record for March.

 

4:49 PM UPDATE

A couple of Severe Thunderstorm WATCHES remain in effect to our north.  The closest one includes our northern-most counties of Jackson over to Jennings in Indiana until 11pm. 

The radar is lighting up quick with warnings and well...lightning.  Large hail has been reported with this line so far.

The shaded counties are under severe thunderstorm warnings as of this post.

Keep in mind, this line is going to take several more hours to push into our area. 

Timing:

Northern counties in Indiana: 7-9pm
Louisville Metro: 9-11pm
South/east of Louisville 10-12midnight (storms likely fading by this time)

The best energy for these storms is north of us across central IL/IN/OH...so the severe threat is a bit lower for us locally.

There is a chance the line would weaken quite a bit when it crosses the Ohio River.  We will watch and hope for that trend.

 

Severe Risk Today

 

Most of the day will be warm with a mixture of clouds and sunshine, but we have a chance of storms after 4pm.  Some of those storms could be strong to severe with large hail as the main threat, damaging winds as the second threat.  There is a very minimal threat of a tornado.

HAIL THREAT:

 

WIND THREAT:

 

TORNADO THREAT:

TIMING OF THE STORMS:

4pm-6pm:  20% chance

6pm-8pm:  30% chance

8pm-11pm:  40% chance

11pm-1am:  30% chance

Storm TALK! Thursday Edition

Question(s) for you at the end of this blog post :)

Beautiful day out there today!  This is what spring is supposed to be like !

Don't forget we will be out at the Southeast YMCA this evening from 5-8pm for the Weather Tour!

 

Kevin, myself, Lauren and Christie will be there. Andy is going to hold back at the station for the newscasts.

Looking ahead, still looking at a chance for some strong storms Friday afternoon/night.

SPC still has *some of* us outlooked Friday. They did shift it a bit north.

 

Here is the % risk for severe:

 

Pretty easy setup to gauge as it will be a low pressure moving from MO to OH during the day Friday.  The cold front attached to it will lag like a tail.  So that means the storms will fire north...but will take a bit longer to move through our area to the south.  This likely will be a slanted squall-line of storms from OH southwest toward Evansville by late afternoon/evening.  The closer to the low pressure you are---the higher the risk for severe storms.  So those of you across IN have a higher risk than our southern counties in KY.

The wind fields are decent, but nothing impressive.

NAM:                                                             GFS:

                                

CAPES are certainly there...near 1500...so there is will be instability at play.

 

EHI's are slightly elevated, so I would not rule out a tornado warning or two that may get issued in the Ohio Valley---but this isn't a great setup for tornadoes (shew) as the winds at the surface and aloft are mostly SSW.  No drastic change in direction between the two levels--but enough for a brief rotating storm.

 

The weekend looks to start off cool--and warm FAST.  It is interesting to see how the NAM is 10 degrees cooler for Saturday than the GFS.  NAM says 64...GFS says 74.  We plan to split the difference right now with 70 more likely.

GFS really has warmed us up for Sunday...perhaps near 85?  That is certainly possible given how quickly our southerly flow kicks in.  In general, Sunday will be warmer than Saturday for those of you planning activities outside :)

The 'big storm' that was slated for Monday ...looks like a mess on the models now.  GFS/EURO both had a strong low pressure near the Great Lakes with a negatively-tilted trough moving toward us.  Well, EURO is weaker with the low...with a fast moving cold front.  GFS decided to cut the low off from the main flow and has it slowly moving over us most of next week with a heavy rain threat.

In other words, the threat for a signficant outbreak of severe storms is lower today than it looked yesterday---but the models are struggling on how to handle this storm so I HIGHLY urge caution with the forecast for early-mid next week.  Keep checking back in.

Here is the GFS for early next week.

Notice how the low gets cutoff from the main jet to the north.

 

IF the GFS verifies, heavy rain would be an issue.  It is indicated the risk of 2-4" of rain.

 

SPC (before the GFS updated) did place a risk for severe storms to our south/west.  Obviously, more adjustments on that will be needed as the models figure this thing out.

 

EURO as I mentioned also changed its tune.

Here is how it sees the map by Tuesday/Wednesday.  Keeps the low with the main jet..but fast with it.

 

NOTE: new EURO is due out after this blog post...I will let you know if any drastic changes.

It is worth mentioning the Canadian model likes the GFS idea.  Cutoff low.  But MUCH slower with it .  It does not push the low east of us until next Friday!

 

So what about cold/snow?  Well, in order to turn colder...you need a strong area of low pressure to push it south.  Now that we are talking about a cutoff low possibility---it will be a huge struggle to get colder air south.

GFS still hints at a taste perhaps by the 9th...but no snow showing up yet.

 

SUMMARY:  Forecast looks pretty easy over the next few days...but next week  looks complicated.  I do think a signifcant storm system of some type is going to affect us...but we need to nail down if we are facing a severe storm setup or a heavy rain setup.    Temps will likely cool quite a bit under that cutoff low---so next week may  start off warm---but it will be a cool week overall the way it is looking.

 QUESTION(S):
How many times a week do you read the blog?
What do you want to see more of with the posts?
Do you like more graphics than words..or other way around?
Do the times of day they get updated work out well for you?

Thanks in advance!!

Severe, Snot, Spires

We had severe storms yesterday, and we have another risk of severe storms tomorrow.  One more reason to enjoy today, since we get to take a breather from the storms.  Check out this picture of the hail yesterday near the Franklin/Scott County line... courtesy Don Dziubakowski:

Tomorrow we are under a slight risk of severe storms... mainly in the afternoon and evening.  Main threats are large hail and wind damage.

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FRIDAY

Here's the timing of tomorrow's storms:

7am-11am:  20% chance

11am-2pm:  30% chance

2pm-5pm:  40% chance

5pm-7pm:  50% chance

7pm-12am:  40% chance

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We aren't expecting heavy downpours or prolonged rainfall tomorrow, just a quick storm or two.  QPF has us coming in under a quarter of an inch of rain.

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The one great thing that the storms did yesterday was... they lowered the pollen in the air!  Yay!  It certainly makes for a less snotty Thursday at least.  Here's the pollen forecast for the rest of the week from The Weather Channel:

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Thought you might find this interested... also from The Weather Channel:

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In honor of Saturday's game (which some are saying is the game of the Century for Kentuckians)... Churchill Downs has lit its Twin Spires with blue and red for the Cats and Cards.  Pretty cool.

 

(3/28) Now is the time to Make-A-Wish! Cards or Cats!

Here's your chance to cheer on the Cats or Cards and support the Make-A-Wish Foundation of Kentucky, Indiana & Ohio to help youngsters who have life-threatening medical conditions.  There will be only 5,000 officially licensed NCAA Final Four basketballs produced for EACH team, Louisville and Kentucky. Each ball will have several white panels that contain historical information, Final Four logo, and scores of all games played during March and the regular season.  They are currently price at $99 each and available by ordering over the phone or internet
Call 1-800-345-2868 
www.nikcosports.com


UK - http://www.nikcosports.com/kentucky-wildcats-2012-ncaa-final-four-basketball.aspx



UofL - http://www.nikcosports.com/louisville-cardinals-2012-ncaa-final-four-basketball.aspx

The Kentucky Wildcats & Louisville Cardinals have advanced to the Final Four of the 2012 NCAA Basketball Championship Tournament.  It has truly been a 'Season to Remember' for both programs.  Celebrate the Cats & Cards achievements with this one of a kind sports memorabilia.  These basketballs are Limited Edition of 5,000 and comes with a Certificate of Authenticity.

If either team eventually goes on to win the 2012 NCAA Tournament Championship, this Limited Edition Basketball will automatically be upgraded to include the Championship Logo in order to Celebrate their Championship Feat!

Storm TALK! Wednesday Edition

Severe Thunderstorm WATCH for many of us until 9:00 PM.

This will be a line of storms that will sag north to south this afternoon/evening.  Many areas will be in the clear by 6pm so the watch likely will get cleared early.

Beyond tonight's event, we have (2) more severe weather possibilities we need to watch out for.

Friday and Monday.

FRIDAY:
There will be an area of low pressure that will track north of us from IL into OH.  There will be a pockets of decent winds aloft near that low that will help support severe thunderstorms in the afternoon/early evening.

SPC does have Louisville/northward included in a SLIGHT RISK for severe storms for this event.

Capes (instability) certainly looks to be there.

NAM- around 1500                     GFS around 1000 with 1500 north/west

                          

Winds aloft are pretty strong with the strongest closer to the low itself.

EHI index isn't off the chart, but high enough that a few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out in the region...especially north of Louisville into OH.

We will watch the model trends as we get closer.

 

MONDAY:
This one is going to be tough to nail down---so keep in mind there will likely be changes on this.  Especially with timing. 

GFS/EURO both pretty robust with a strong low pressure (987mb) moving into the Great Lakes Sun-Tue.  The low looks to become negatively tilted...or leans in a NW to SE fashion.  This usually means a higher threat for severe thunderstorms in our area.

GFS shows the front moving in Monday PM with thunderstorms.

CAPES do surge quite a bit into the Ohio Valley. 

The problems remains with timing.  CMC/GEM models delay this low pressure until THURSDAY!

Right now, I think the GFS/EURO movement of Monday makes more sense...but we may have to push timing into Tuesday if the low becomes cutoff quicker than expected.

SPC does not have an outlook out for this event...but did issue the following statement:

WHILE THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL -- AND
   EVENTUALLY THE ERN/NERN U.S. -- WOULD LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
   FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
   EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS DEPICTED IN THESE TWO MODELS CAST
   CONSIDERABLE DOUBT AS TO EVEN ROUGH APPROXIMATIONS OF TIMING AND
   LOCATION.  THE ECMWF APPEARS SUBSTANTIALLY MORE ROBUST WITH RESPECT
   TO SEVERE POTENTIAL -- PARTICULARLY BEYOND DAY 4...WITH ITS MUCH
   SLOWER/NEGATIVELY-TILTED PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS

Beyond this storm, there is a risk anyway for colder weather to move in around Wed or Thur next week.

850 temps do crashed behind the low...which normally would mean snow would fall.  However, surface temps would be around 40.  Granted, it CAN snow at 40...it would obviously melt. 

GFS has 850mb temps at about -3C next Wed/Thu.  For this time of year, I would like to see values more around -6 to -8 to actually put snow in the forecast.  Right now, it just looks too marginal.  GFS/EURO have bounced back and forth on this idea of a cold snap for over a week now.  We will tackle this more next week. 

April looks to be an interesting month with cold air really building in southern Canada.  This creates a tight temperature gradient across the eastern US.  This will mean strong areas of low pressure.

Risk of Severe Storms this Afternoon

Most of the day will be dry with partly sunny skies, however, you have a 40% chance to see a shower or storm.  The window of opportunity for these storms will be between noon and 6pm.  We expect dry weather and clearing skies close to sunset.  The storms that develop this afternoon have the potential to become severe with high winds and large hail.

QPF shows light rain totals, and most of the rain expected to be south of the Ohio River.

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Timing of the storms:

Now-12pm:  Dry and warm

12pm-3pm:  30% storm chance

3pm-5pm:  40% storm chance

5pm-7pm:  20% storm chance

7pm and later:  Dry

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Join us for the WAVE 3 Weather Tour tomorrow (Thursday) at the Southeast YMCA in Louisville!  Kevin Harned, Brian Goode, Lauren Jones and I will be there from 5pm-8pm.  Come out and say howdy.  Everyone is invited, and we'd love to see you.

WARMER AIR BRINGS STORM CHANCE

Good afternoon, friends. Did you notice anything different this morning? How about the temperatures! Brr...it was a shock to the system for me as I've become accustomed to the record breaking heat we had last week. :) Check out these morning lows...areas to our North and East as expected nearly hit freezing. Outlying locations picked up some patchy frost. This mornings chill will be short lived as 80 degree heat makes a return.

 

TODAY/TONIGHT

Sunshine will rule the roost today. Temperatures will have a long way to climb to get back into the 70s after starting in the 30s and 40s...but it shouldn't be an impossible climb. Areas to our South and West should see the warmest temperatures today as a warm front moves closer. Upper 70s is likely in those locations while I expect the metro and surrounding counties to top out in the low 70s and cooler to the North and East.  As we head into the evening hours clouds will build in from the West. These clouds are in advance of our next rain maker that will arrive tomorrow. Temperatures won't cool as much tonight as last night because clouds will act as a blanket and keep temps steady in the mid to upper 50s away from the city and low to mid 60s in and around the metro area.

TOMORROW

An area of low pressure will track through the Midwest and arrive in our area throughout the day tomorrow. Prior to it’s arrival a warm front will march Northward…a cold front Eastward…and we’ll be in a prime warming location by tomorrow afternoon. Temps will warm to near 80 tomorrow  and with the daytime heating a few storms could fire in the afternoon. Any storm that develops will have the potential to become strong or severe. We feel the best location for this would be in Southern KY with damaging winds and hail being our main concern. After the cold front passes by tomorrow evening colder air will pour in Thursday with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. Sunshine will continue throughout the day on Thursday.

NEW ORLEANS FORECAST

Scattered showers and storms are possible through the weekend in NOLA. Temperatures Friday – Monday will remain near 80. We don’t expect a wash out but with the afternoon heating pop up showers and storms are possible. Good Luck to the Cards and UK! We’ll continue to update the New Orleans forecast the next several days. Have a wonderful afternoon.