Storm TALK! Thursday Edition

Question(s) for you at the end of this blog post :)

Beautiful day out there today!  This is what spring is supposed to be like !

Don't forget we will be out at the Southeast YMCA this evening from 5-8pm for the Weather Tour!

 

Kevin, myself, Lauren and Christie will be there. Andy is going to hold back at the station for the newscasts.

Looking ahead, still looking at a chance for some strong storms Friday afternoon/night.

SPC still has *some of* us outlooked Friday. They did shift it a bit north.

 

Here is the % risk for severe:

 

Pretty easy setup to gauge as it will be a low pressure moving from MO to OH during the day Friday.  The cold front attached to it will lag like a tail.  So that means the storms will fire north...but will take a bit longer to move through our area to the south.  This likely will be a slanted squall-line of storms from OH southwest toward Evansville by late afternoon/evening.  The closer to the low pressure you are---the higher the risk for severe storms.  So those of you across IN have a higher risk than our southern counties in KY.

The wind fields are decent, but nothing impressive.

NAM:                                                             GFS:

                                

CAPES are certainly there...near 1500...so there is will be instability at play.

 

EHI's are slightly elevated, so I would not rule out a tornado warning or two that may get issued in the Ohio Valley---but this isn't a great setup for tornadoes (shew) as the winds at the surface and aloft are mostly SSW.  No drastic change in direction between the two levels--but enough for a brief rotating storm.

 

The weekend looks to start off cool--and warm FAST.  It is interesting to see how the NAM is 10 degrees cooler for Saturday than the GFS.  NAM says 64...GFS says 74.  We plan to split the difference right now with 70 more likely.

GFS really has warmed us up for Sunday...perhaps near 85?  That is certainly possible given how quickly our southerly flow kicks in.  In general, Sunday will be warmer than Saturday for those of you planning activities outside :)

The 'big storm' that was slated for Monday ...looks like a mess on the models now.  GFS/EURO both had a strong low pressure near the Great Lakes with a negatively-tilted trough moving toward us.  Well, EURO is weaker with the low...with a fast moving cold front.  GFS decided to cut the low off from the main flow and has it slowly moving over us most of next week with a heavy rain threat.

In other words, the threat for a signficant outbreak of severe storms is lower today than it looked yesterday---but the models are struggling on how to handle this storm so I HIGHLY urge caution with the forecast for early-mid next week.  Keep checking back in.

Here is the GFS for early next week.

Notice how the low gets cutoff from the main jet to the north.

 

IF the GFS verifies, heavy rain would be an issue.  It is indicated the risk of 2-4" of rain.

 

SPC (before the GFS updated) did place a risk for severe storms to our south/west.  Obviously, more adjustments on that will be needed as the models figure this thing out.

 

EURO as I mentioned also changed its tune.

Here is how it sees the map by Tuesday/Wednesday.  Keeps the low with the main jet..but fast with it.

 

NOTE: new EURO is due out after this blog post...I will let you know if any drastic changes.

It is worth mentioning the Canadian model likes the GFS idea.  Cutoff low.  But MUCH slower with it .  It does not push the low east of us until next Friday!

 

So what about cold/snow?  Well, in order to turn colder...you need a strong area of low pressure to push it south.  Now that we are talking about a cutoff low possibility---it will be a huge struggle to get colder air south.

GFS still hints at a taste perhaps by the 9th...but no snow showing up yet.

 

SUMMARY:  Forecast looks pretty easy over the next few days...but next week  looks complicated.  I do think a signifcant storm system of some type is going to affect us...but we need to nail down if we are facing a severe storm setup or a heavy rain setup.    Temps will likely cool quite a bit under that cutoff low---so next week may  start off warm---but it will be a cool week overall the way it is looking.

 QUESTION(S):
How many times a week do you read the blog?
What do you want to see more of with the posts?
Do you like more graphics than words..or other way around?
Do the times of day they get updated work out well for you?

Thanks in advance!!

Comments

[Adam]

Answers...Daily, nothing, everything is great, plenty of posts early enough in the day to plan! WAVE3 does a heck of a job making sure we are informed. Definately the best weather team in the OV!

[Doug]

I agree with Adam. I vote the same.

[Liz]

1) Usually twice a day.
2) I like the posts the way they are.
3) I like both graphics and words.
4) Time of day are perfect.
I like this blog just as much or more than the facebook page. There are a lot of people that do not have a facebook account and will likely never have one. This blog is a great alternative! I think you should advertise it more! Plus I can see and use the interactive radar. You are all GREAT! Best Weather team Kentuckiana has!!

[Liz]

Also agree with Adam! I do appreciate having plenty of words to help interpret the graphics. I usually check the blog in the early morning (before 8:00) and in the mid-afternoon (2:00).

[Shonda]

I read the blog several times a week, especially if there is threatening weather.
Not sure if there is much I would add to the blogs, unless you want to add some weather trivia or something.
Both text and graphics work for me
The updates work for me but I can't speak for others. I like the idea of having one with each news cast and when there is severe weather threatening the Louisville metro area.
Other than all of this, keep up the great work and thank you for keeping us safe.

[Ssew6482]

I read the blog several times a week, especially if there is threatening weather.
Not sure if there is much I would add to the blogs, unless you want to add some weather trivia or something.
Both text and graphics work for me
The updates work for me but I can't speak for others. I like the idea of having one with each news cast and when there is severe weather threatening the Louisville metro area.
Other than all of this, keep up the great work and thank you for keeping us safe.

[Onry]

I read the blog every chance I can, and since I don't get muted on here like I did the Wave3 facebook page, I like it now even more.

[Joe]

This is an excellent blog, Brian. I hit it everyday, at least once. The graphics are fine, along with the commentary - don't change a thing! I've seen updates posted at just the right times, so that works very well on here. I'm in total agreement with Liz's comment. Great job!

[A Facebook User]

I read the blogs like daily. Myself i dont think u need to change a thing. Everything is looking really good and Wave3 does an AMAZING job at keeping everything updated and even letting us know what we could expect in the near future and the timing of things. :) You guys ( Wave3) is the far best NEWSCAST and WEATHER TEAM in Kentucky!! Keep up the good work. :))

[Joey Rourke]

I have followed the blog for years now, ever since John Belski started using it. Even with the constant facebook updates, I read the blog just as much as I used to. Being 21, naturally I'm on facebook daily, so I appreciate that you all link blog updates to your feed. Its very convenient. To answer your questions a little more directly: I read the blog every time its updated. I have always had a love of weather and am pursuiting a career in meteorology, and I must say, your blogging (all of you) continues to teach me so much. I love the graphics and the in depth discussions. I wouldn't change a thing about it! So anywho, that's my two cents! Thanks for all that you all do!

[Jim]

I think the blog is good and I check it daily (more when severe weather is forecast).

[Wendy]

I check the blog everyday, no need to change anything! :)

[Tim Skees]

check it every day, multiple times a day when severe storms are possible.
bring on the severe !!

[A Facebook User]

I check the blog three or four times a day usually. I frequent many weather blogs actually, and yours is usually the best. I love Brian's posts. I love the mix of graphics and wording. Really you guys are doing something really great here. Just keep it up, I don't see what you need to change. I think most of your posts are a good mix of being in-depth enough and yet readable to the general public. Keep in mind I have a degree in Atmospheric Science though, so I might be a bit biased in the sense that I understand everything you guys say without having to look anything up.

[Tina]

I think everything is great. I have followed this blog for years. Thanks for all the hard work you do for all of us to keep safe and informed!!! T.V. and internet alike!

[KI4ZOC]

I check the blogs very often and I run the computer models from the NWS on my computer. I am not and expert but I do appreciate an experts opinion. Keep the blogs coming often. Thank You and Thanks to the whole WAVE 3 Weather Team for keeping us informed and safe.

[Ken Richardson]

How many times a week do you read the blog? 2-3
What do you want to see more of with the posts? Keep the way they are - with the variety of writing styles, doesn't get stale.
Do you like more graphics than words..or other way around?
Like the mix the way it is now.
Do the times of day they get updated work out well for you? Times work fine, it is fairly random

[chrisb]

i check the blog once a day, usually after lunch. i like when its updated after the early afternoon runs come out. i prefer more maps of EHI, LIs, dewpoint, cape, etc especially within a few days of severe setup. basically any parameter than can gauge severe setup and placement. the people who understand maps dont need words, where those who are clueless MUST have words. so thats a split.

[Cale]

Read it daily. I can only suggest a weekly learning post where you go in depth with a 1 weather term and explain it how you explain your forecasts.

Example: What exactly is "unstable atmosphere?"

[Shani]

I read every blog entry, no matter when it's been posted.

[Kristina]

Pretty much agree with everyone! I read it daily (more if there is severe weather). Posts and timing is great. I like words slightly more than graphics, but that seems to be how it's done already :)

[Helen Haverstick]

I read the blog everyday usually twice, more when severe weather is a possibility. I also read it to my kids and explain as much as I know how. I think the learning day would be great to go in depth on one term or set up. I think you guys are creating lots of educated future meteorologists. I know many mothers and fathers who share your blogs. Your TV, internet and radio are by far the most professional, in depth and concise (yes, those two go hand in hand). Thanks so much for helping to keep us safe!

[Josh]

I would say change nothing. I check the blog everyday and I think the Wave team is amazing!! Keep up the good work Brian!!

[karenp]

I read the blogs several times a day and am always disappointed when there's no new info!!! I love graphics and words and appreciate the different styles everybody has. Keep up the good work.

[Vicky]

I read the blog daily and love it!! You provide so much information and I wouldn't change a thing.

[Diana]

I love the post and usually check them twice at day, lunch and evening. The graphics are great but ONLY when accompanied with an explanation . I love weather and enjoy the more in-depth discussions and the great "what ifs" associated with weather forecasting. You all do a great job - Thank You.

[Garrett Frank]

I read the blog daily, usually twice a day. The information posted is wonderful. Brain's post are the most in depth. The detail really lets you know that may happen and what to expect. Since i have followed the blog (4 years- Started with Belski) i have not been surprised by the weather. I have learned a lot about Ohio Valley weather and what to look for. I would leave off the post that do not go into detail. If a blog post restates what was said on TV it is just repetitious. I look for the 'behind the scenes' information.

I work at a school and I had a great handle on the tornadoes on leap day and March 2nd. I was informing my high school students several days before each event. This blog explained the science behind the weather and also kept my students safe. This can be a great educational resource as well!!

Keep up the great work.

[Troy C.]

1) Multiple times a day
2) Not much I would change with the blog; but maybe you could add a "What happened on this day in..." tidbit at the end of a post
3) Graphics tend to be a bit technical for the uneducated (me) so I rely on your explanation
4) Time of day doesn't matter to me since I check the blog all the time anyway LOL!! (Besides, you always update more frequently when there's inclement weather to help keep us aware and safe.)

WAVE3 Weather Team Rocks :)

[Alice]

I check in several times a day usually,especially if something interesting may be coming up.I wouldn't change a thing, you do a great job as is.

[Kb]

Read the blog every update, maps are great, u all have educated a lot I believe. Keep up the good work.

[Jeremy Radford]

The detailed posts are great and are very informative. One thing I would like to see more of are long range forecasts dealing with subjects like La Nina and El Nino and historical records about how the summers/winters went with similar conditions as now. Keep up the good work!

[d.fowl]

Long-time reader. Average once a day - multiple times a day when significant weather events are looming (which seems to be a lot more often these days!) and as little as once a week when things are calmer and repetitive.

You’re very good at providing information tailored to different levels of weather knowledge - from enthusiast to expert - and I’ve learned a bit myself over the years about the science behind the forecasting. Thanks for that.

My only suggestion would be to provide more working links to weather data and graphics you regularly reference, and in particular to the WAVE 3 Weather facebook wall.

[TC]

I love reading the blog posts each day. I enjoy the words the most, as I usually check from my cell and the pictures are too small for me to interpret/interact with easily. In addition, I do not have Facebook so I rely on the blog for much of my planning purposes. I would also like to see the blog updated more often on the weekends.

[Dave]

I look for your blog every day, like the SNOW and STORM talk, love it when you go out a week or so in advance...I know it is a challenge! The split you have now with the maps and words works great for me. Does not really matter on the time because I know you are working different hours and it is hard to get it all done. KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK!!! Thanks for all you do!
I have been reading the blog for a long while now, still read John's blog, can't get away from it, he is one of the best!

[Eric]

I read the blog at least once a day. I don't really think that it needs to be changed. More updates would be nice but you guys keep pretty busy so no complaints.

[Aaron-LOU]

How many times a week do you read the blog?
A minimum of 5 times, but can be much more during active weather.

What do you want to see more of with the posts?
As a person who is still considering a degree in Atmospheric Sciences, more in-depth or explanations would be cool, Although you all already do a terrific job getting in-depth with the forecasts and possibilities!

Do you like more graphics than words..or other way around?
Both lol.

Do the times of day they get updated work out well for you?
Yeah. Updates are quite frequent. No complains.

Overall you all do a fantastic job, the best Meteorologist's in Louisville hands down in my opinion. Keep up the great work!

[Dan]

I check the blog about twice a day, and have been doing so since John started the blog. I still enjoy his contribution especially when he posts during the severe weather episodes. Even after the fact, you can get a minute-by-minute account of what happened.

The only changes to the blogs I would recommend would be a "this day in history" entry.

I'm on Facebook too, but enjoy the blog on the WAVE3 page much more than the scattered entries on Facebook.

[Jason Porter]

I read your blog more often when rain is in the forecast. Since I work outdoors, I really need to know your rain amount prediction; even if it's just a "best guess" scenario.

I would like to see some animated graphs of estimated frontal boundary movement along with the predicted storms that would affect us.

Thanks for provided the blog for all of us that would like more information than what you can share on the broadcast.

[Carrie M.]

I usually check both blogs several times each day for updates. Would love to see more weekend updates but understand that is family time for most of you. I too like having the information in one section instead of having to scroll through Facebook entries as it makes it easier to process. Love all the time the group spends keeping us informed and safe. Thanks!

[Una Turley]

I read this blog several times each day. More weekend posts would be nice but only necessary with frequent weather changes. I like the variety that each of you provide and each of you weather people make it easy to undestand the weather for us laypersons.

[SimplyLisa]

QUESTION(S):
How many times a week do you read the blog? Daily first thing in the morning, and check back a couple times of day.
What do you want to see more of with the posts? I think they're great as is.
Do you like more graphics than words..or other way around? Both. I don't completely understand all the graphics, but like to learn.
Do the times of day they get updated work out well for you? yes!

Great job, all of you

[C Rowe]

How many times a week do you read the blog? Every update, check it 2/3 times per day.

What do you want to see more of with the posts? I miss Belski's 14 day forecast. Nice to know what the temp trends will be. I feel like storm predictions beyond 48hrs out sound like hype and are too unreliable.

Do you like more graphics than words..or other way around? Not a big fan of copying and pasting of technical terms, like when you summerize it with your thoughts instead(note I said thoughts and not necessarily predictions).

Do the times of day they get updated work out well for you? Have a computer at my desk and a smart phone, all times are good.

[Kay]

How many times a week do you read the blog? Several times a day
What do you want to see more of with the posts? Everything is fine-maybe a little more explanation of technical terms if there is room
Do you like more graphics than words..or other way around? Seems totally fine the way it is
Do the times of day they get updated work out well for you? Yes, works great for me

[Ashley]

How many times a week do you read the blog?
I check your weather page several times every day. If the blog has been updated, I check it.

What do you want to see more of with the posts?
I like your posts just the way they are.

Do you like more graphics than words... or other way around?
I would never understand the grahics without the words. I need the words, but I like the graphics, too.

Do the times of day they get updated work out well for you?
Yes, I suppose so. Sometimes, days will go by without a blog update. But when severe weather threatens, the blog is always updated, so it all works out!

On March 2, 2012, I toggled screens between the WAVE-3 Facebook page and John's Belski's blog, as they were both being updated in real time. People need to understand that they don't have to actually join Facebook to see the WAVE-3 Facebook page.

I love the WAVE-3 Weather Team. Thank you so much for all that you do! :)

[Marshall]

I really enjoy your posts. I live in LA so reading them is a way to stay connected to the area and the weather I grew up with. It is well balanced in that it offers enough detail for the educated amateur meteorologist yet not so much that it reminds me of the 400 level courses that having not taken higher level math, chemistry etc. leaves you infinitely cross referencing. I check it daily and multiple times per day if an interesting event is unfolding. It's during these times I enjoy frequent updates as things change which I think generally you do very well. Keep up the great work and i appreciate your passion for meteorology, especially snow! (Growing up I use to stay up all night tracking storms and waiting for the first flake to fall, very few can understand such an obsession) Thanks!