Question(s) for you at the end of this blog post :)
Beautiful day out there today! This is what spring is supposed to be like !
Don't forget we will be out at the Southeast YMCA this evening from 5-8pm for the Weather Tour!
Kevin, myself, Lauren and Christie will be there. Andy is going to hold back at the station for the newscasts.
Looking ahead, still looking at a chance for some strong storms Friday afternoon/night.
SPC still has *some of* us outlooked Friday. They did shift it a bit north.
Here is the % risk for severe:
Pretty easy setup to gauge as it will be a low pressure moving from MO to OH during the day Friday. The cold front attached to it will lag like a tail. So that means the storms will fire north...but will take a bit longer to move through our area to the south. This likely will be a slanted squall-line of storms from OH southwest toward Evansville by late afternoon/evening. The closer to the low pressure you are---the higher the risk for severe storms. So those of you across IN have a higher risk than our southern counties in KY.
The wind fields are decent, but nothing impressive.
CAPES are certainly there...near 1500...so there is will be instability at play.
EHI's are slightly elevated, so I would not rule out a tornado warning or two that may get issued in the Ohio Valley---but this isn't a great setup for tornadoes (shew) as the winds at the surface and aloft are mostly SSW. No drastic change in direction between the two levels--but enough for a brief rotating storm.
The weekend looks to start off cool--and warm FAST. It is interesting to see how the NAM is 10 degrees cooler for Saturday than the GFS. NAM says 64...GFS says 74. We plan to split the difference right now with 70 more likely.
GFS really has warmed us up for Sunday...perhaps near 85? That is certainly possible given how quickly our southerly flow kicks in. In general, Sunday will be warmer than Saturday for those of you planning activities outside :)
The 'big storm' that was slated for Monday ...looks like a mess on the models now. GFS/EURO both had a strong low pressure near the Great Lakes with a negatively-tilted trough moving toward us. Well, EURO is weaker with the low...with a fast moving cold front. GFS decided to cut the low off from the main flow and has it slowly moving over us most of next week with a heavy rain threat.
In other words, the threat for a signficant outbreak of severe storms is lower today than it looked yesterday---but the models are struggling on how to handle this storm so I HIGHLY urge caution with the forecast for early-mid next week. Keep checking back in.
Here is the GFS for early next week.
Notice how the low gets cutoff from the main jet to the north.
IF the GFS verifies, heavy rain would be an issue. It is indicated the risk of 2-4" of rain.
SPC (before the GFS updated) did place a risk for severe storms to our south/west. Obviously, more adjustments on that will be needed as the models figure this thing out.
EURO as I mentioned also changed its tune.
Here is how it sees the map by Tuesday/Wednesday. Keeps the low with the main jet..but fast with it.
NOTE: new EURO is due out after this blog post...I will let you know if any drastic changes.
It is worth mentioning the Canadian model likes the GFS idea. Cutoff low. But MUCH slower with it . It does not push the low east of us until next Friday!
So what about cold/snow? Well, in order to turn colder...you need a strong area of low pressure to push it south. Now that we are talking about a cutoff low possibility---it will be a huge struggle to get colder air south.
GFS still hints at a taste perhaps by the 9th...but no snow showing up yet.
SUMMARY: Forecast looks pretty easy over the next few days...but next week looks complicated. I do think a signifcant storm system of some type is going to affect us...but we need to nail down if we are facing a severe storm setup or a heavy rain setup. Temps will likely cool quite a bit under that cutoff low---so next week may start off warm---but it will be a cool week overall the way it is looking.
How many times a week do you read the blog?
What do you want to see more of with the posts?
Do you like more graphics than words..or other way around?
Do the times of day they get updated work out well for you?
Thanks in advance!!