Hail of a day yesterday, huh?
More than 231 reports of large hail across the country Saturday ...many from our supercell that tracks through the Metro.
For Kentucky, we now have 164 reports of large hail this year.
That puts us in 2nd place.
1) Texas 318
2) Kentucky 164
3) Tennessee 154
4) Kansas 132
We are in 2nd place for # of Tornadoes and in 1st place for High Wind reports. Not lists we want to be at the top of.
Make sure to check your vehicles and homes for damage today. Many thanks to all the reports and pics/videos last evening. That was a huge help in getting the word out and on confirmation of radar data.
Looking to today...the warm front is now to the south of Louisville.
You can clearly see that too on the visible satellite where low clouds/fog have formed just north of the front. It will be that boundary of warm/cold (differential heating) that a few storms may fire this afternoon.
Overall, there is a threat for a few strong storms this afternoon---but we are not facing the strong heating like yesterday and/or a vort max moving through as a trigger. So the storms will be a bit less organized today.
HRRR model does keep things fairly quiet at 2pm
By 6pm, storms begin to pop.
By 8pm they begin to fade.
SPC does has areas to the west in the SLIGHT RISK . We will have to watch to see if that gets pushed a bit more east if more heating takes place than expected.
The warm front is expected to move NORTH tomorrow. This will surge our temps into the mid 80s. Gotta watch out for storms that could fire in the afternoon. SPC already had us outlooked for along and north of the warm front.
One thing to note...NAM is suggesting (and so has our futurecast) that a strong cluster of storms may fire around midnight Monday night across southern IN. If so, those could be rather strong based on wind fields south of the low pressure as it pushes into Ohio. Something to watch.
Tuesday, it will be a warm/humid day with again...a risk for storms. SPC has us at 5% (below SLIGHT RISK) but we will have to watch for strong storm potential too.
The driest day (and even then there is a 20% chance for a storm) will be Wednesday. It also will be our warmest with highs nearing 90! Great for the Steamboat Race this year.
After Wednesday, we have a front to deal with that won't make its mind up on the models on how far south/when it wants to make its move.
GFS right now (and even EURO somewhat) want to keep the front at bay most of the period. If this is the case, storm chances will need to be lowered and it will stay warm in the upper 80s right through Derby. I did lower the temps some and kept storm chances in ...but this forecast is subject to change. Keep that in mind.
PARADE DAY (thurs): GFS keeps it mostly dry and quite warm.
OAKS DAY (fri): just small storm chance on GFS
DERBY DAY (sat): GFS brings the front through with scattered storms. Again, I am suspect of timing of that front and how far south it will go.
SUMMARY: Highest storm chances will be later today, Monday afternoon, Overnight Monday and on Tuesday. After that...hot and humid likely will be words you hear more often. Keep close to our facebook page and the blog for the storm risks and we just will have to take each event one at a time. The Derby forecast will keep changing too.