Dancing Front TALK! Thursday Edition

*** our newscasts and social media will handle the storm threat this late afternoon/evening***

This will be a tale of the dancing front over the next several days.

It is forecast to go south...then north..then south..then north...oh you get it.

Obviously, the swinging backing and forth will be tough to time out---and with several events planned in the coming days--we just will have to take this one day at a time.

 

The "front" in question today...is now heading SOUTH.  It will lower those humidity values out there currently and allow for a cooler night tonight (40s).

 

The front will then move back NORTH again during the day on Friday as a warm front.  Clouds will increase...with spotty showers by afternoon--best chance toward the nighttime hours.

 

The front on Saturday will remain fairly STATIONARY.  But where does it put the brakes on?   Obvious setup here is that if you are along or north of the front---cooler/rain threat.  South of the front--slight storm chance only and much warmer. 

 

By Sunday, the front moves back SOUTH again.  However, the latest runs today are not AS far south with it on Sunday as previous outlooks.  So while we should see  a drop compared to Saturday---it may not be as dramatic.

 

Next Monday, the front goes back NORTH again...but this time much faster and further north.  So decent warming takes place.  Perhaps back into the 80s.

 

This will set the stage for the big derby events for later in the week.

For the PEGASUS PARADE (Dawne Gee and I will be hosting that again this year btw)...we will be fully in a warm sector.  Almost summer-like with just random showers/storms.  Way too early to pinpoint timing.

 

OAKS DAY---the models GFS/EURO both agree that a front will be approaching Friday or Saturday.  The GFS below suggests it will arrive Friday evening.  This means a very warm day in the 80s with perhaps thunderstorms to deal with that night.

 

DERBY DAY--- the front is to our south...cooler day..with a few showers possible.

 

It is worth noting however, the EURO does not push the front through until DERBY night.  So that would mean most of OAKS/DERBY would be warm/summer-like with highest rain threat Saturday night.

With such differences, we still need more time before adjusting to a confident forecast.

***I will look more at severe chances for the next few days---with tomorrow's post.

At least it doesn't look like snow this year :)