Memorial Day---thinking of all of those we lost....
It will certainly be an interesting week in weather forecasting.
We are going to see one season to the the next in a matter of 5 days.
Today's season, "summer" of course. Highs once again in the 90s. And based on the satellite image...today may end up being the hottest of the holiday period. So far the hottest was 93 on Sunday. We should easily hit that or slightly beat it. The record is 98. That will be safe. Either way, it will be hot.
The models do vary on how storm chances will play out later today/tonight and Tuesday. Overall, the trend will be to increase rain chances for this afternoon...increase more tonight...and then ease off on them from Tuesday morning into the afternoon.
The latest RUC model suggests storms firing along I 65 as early as 2pm this afternoon. However, the models have been too aggressive lately on storm chances so this may be overdone.
Could any be severe? Yes, but only briefly. Damaging wind gusts/lightning/very heavy rain the main threats.
Anything organized severe-wise should be confined to the main low to our north where the main wind belt is:
Once the cold front clears the area Tuesday---rain chances will fade and temps will drop only slightly on Tuesday (mid to upper 80s).
It is the period Wed-Sat that things get interesting.
An area of low pressure ...deep one that that...is slated to drop down into our area Thursday. The track of this low varies on just about every model. That is making high temps/rain amounts/severe risk difficult to nail down.
The NAM does not see out that far yet, so until we can---I would not put too much money in the bank on the specifics on any forecast right now. Not that the NAM would be right, the NAM is just more detailed and it may help clear up some of the details ...well we need clear :)
Having said that, I will show what the GFS thinks for right now to at least give you an idea of the setup.
GFS develops the deep low and tracks it in a fashion that could set us up for severe storms Friday. The wind fields are pretty strong on the east side of the low.
CAPES are certainly there as well.
GFS solution also means it would be a bit warmer Friday---mid to upper 70s with the cool day now being Saturday (60s) . It does suggest lows in the upper 40s and low 50s Sunday morning:
I am not ready to say we will see severe storms out of this low. The track has been waffling too much on the models to give much confidence. We will watch it carefully as this would be a damaging wind/tornado setup with the GFS. We just can't use one model right now. I will at least say the trend is certainly there for widespread showers/storms Thursday night through Saturday. High temps will be comprised due to this low with a risk for a day or two only the 60s possible and maybe one night in the upper 40s and low 50s. If the low is slow to move---the clouds/cool weather may linger the entire weekend.
Next week does feature a warmup back into the upper 80s to near 90. So this low will be a welcome break---if it can come through with no severe storms.
Stay tuned for many updates on the end of the week forecast.