Storm threat is low, heat threat is high.
Nothing new here I am saying of course.
First, storm threat.
LATEST SPC OUTLOOK: they moved the Slight Risk a bit further north out of our viewing area.
Latest MCS indicator (best chances for a complex of storms) is also lining up well for central IN and especially OH. Same spots that got hit hard yesterday.
The cap (warming aloft) is pretty strong today---so I don't think we will luck out with rain relief. However, just like yesterday---we will have to watch any outflow boundaries this morning from the storms to the north that lead to gust front winds locally and/or storms. Just something we cannot forecast until they develop. Stay tuned.
Louisville Heat Stats:
Forecast high today: 105.
Record high today: 99
All-time June high: 105 (set just yesterday)
All-time high EVER: 107
Record number of 100 degree days in June: 2 (today would make 3)
Excessive Heat WARNING still in effect through Sunday night.
Air Quality Alert in effect for Louisville today and Sunday.
Take it easy outside folks.
How does the future look?
Well the strong ridge of high pressure will weaken slightly for mid week. The 588 to 590mb high is going to slide to the west a bit for mid week. This will allow for a slight increase in storms chances. We will have to watch for storms moving in from the NW.
By late week, the ridge builds back east.
And by next weekend---it has a firm grip on the Ohio Valley once again.
There are signs it may break down near July 11th.
Overall, the GFS and EURO in better agreement today that the heat will stay for quite some time with some slight relaxation in the head Tue/Wed next week. Otherwise, highs in the 90s and 100s will remain a good possiblity.
Storm chances are low today...increase slightly Sunday....and peak out Tue/Wed in the 20 to perhaps 30% range...only to drop to 5-10% by late week.