It was a pretty start to the day...but now clouds are moving in and ruining it :(
Here is the setup:
Low pressure is to our south. It , along with a stalled front across the TN Valley, will be the main area of storms today---some severe. For us, there is a batch of moisture riding down the NW flow right into our viewing area. Showers and a few thundershowers are expected by midday/afternoon. Nothing severe is expected right now, we will watch any hail risk.
You can see how we had the break in cloud cover this morning in between the two systems---but clouds likely will be the rule for the rest of the day.
I had a high in the low 80s based on the morning sun---but that may be too warm.
SPC has the severe risk as mentioned ...close to the front today. The reason southern IL is in the risk is due to our system diving from the north--may help fire storms on the western flank later today in that area.
WHAT'S NEXT?
We get the backlash effect of the low of the NE coast. That could swing back some clouds/showers our way Tue/Wed.
NAM shows the shower risk getting close to us...still east of I 65.
GFS shows a similar idea.
Even if the showers don't make it this far west, it will be a cool flow so highs only in the 70s expected. Any cloud cover will only lower those values even further.
We should warm up as we approach the weekend as our winds shift from the south. Highs in the 88-92 range expected.
LONGER RANGE:
There may be a front next week that makes a run for us...but it likely will stall out nearby. If so, showers/storms will be a daily feature along with high humidity and highs in the 90s on the rain-free days. Very summer-like next week.
Another summer-like feature will be the tropics. Strong signs from the GFS for several runs now of a Gulf of Mexico cyclone. That likely will affect the Gulf region by the 20th/21st range. Bad news if strong...good news if weak. That area needs the rain in a big way. Next name up: CHRIS
SUMMARY:
Few showers/storms today. Cool the next few days with a shower risk along and east of I 65. Heating up toward the weekend. Stormy and hot next week. And tropic troubles to our south by late June.
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