Here is the latest outlook from SPC: Slight risk to our north. We are on the southern edge of this threat today.
Latest Lifted Index is quite impressive. Any negative number signifies an unstable atmosphere...once you get to -10 you are talking about extremely unstable. There is a -14 to our north!
Dewpoints are also higher north...closer to the front. The moisture gathers around the front...leads to storms and when not storming---heat indicies nearing 115!
The moisture is certainly there at 850mb as well. You can clearly see where the storm threat would be this afternoon.
You combine all of the above, and you get a very unstable atmosphere to our north. Storms likely will following the dewpoints/moisture and track toward them. So they are expected to turn more southeast this afternoon/evening.
Right now, the SPC outlook looks good, but I would have bent the SE angle of it a bit more over OH and N KY. I think the models have underestimated the moisture that is pooling in our area so the storms may track a bit more south/east than the SPC threat shows. Something to watch.
The hail threat that was just analyzed for northern IN is a 3. That is HIGH! Very large hail stones possible there---but...the heat likely will at least help melt them down some before reaching the ground.
Tornado threat is low and certainly north.
The main threat with these storms will be high straight-line winds. So those of you in Indiana to Carrollton areas need to watch the radar trends carefully in case that SE turn in the storms does take place.
South of Louisville 5%
East of Louisville 10%
West of Louisville <5%
North of Louisville 10%
Threat is likely to take place in the same spots on Saturday.