Pretty quiet weather for us the next several days. So plan your pool/lake/camping/theme park activities :)
We are under the protecting of high pressure for the next 2-3 days. By the weekend, the high will slight far enough east that we will be on the edge of "protection". Which means the threat for a shower/storm will begin to develop.
We will re-establish that protection when the high moves backwards next Tue/Wed. So that will likely lead to more dry days.
It will be the end of next week into the following weekend of June 23/24 that there will be a traffic jam of sorts in our weather pattern.
The latest runs of the EURO and GFS have a cold front moving down from the north. At the same time, a tropical cyclone is likely to develop in the Gulf of Mexico.
It will be race on these two features. If the front is slower than progged...the tropical system will make a run for the Gulf Coast into the SE USA. Perhaps even aiding us in moisture.
If the front wins out, as the models are trending towards, the tropical system will be forced more west into S TX. We would only get rainfall from the frontal passage itself.
SUMMARY: Heating up daily from here on out...with highs in the low 90s this weekend. Storm chances start Saturday and should last until about Monday. Storm chances, however, are at 10 to 20% at best with this type of pattern. Slow movers however---so if you get one...easily a heavy rainfall event for you. While your neighbors may not see a drop all weekend long. The the end of next week, a strong cold front will dive down in our area. Rain chances expected to go up after the 21st. We will keep an eye on next week to see how the front/tropics interact. Still just too early to get too specific.
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