If you’ve been doing your rain dance the last few weeks it may have FINALLY paid off. A stationary front is positioned in Tennessee and is slowly pushing Northward. An area of low pressure will continue to ride along the front bringing us several shots at rain in the coming days. Dare I say a rainy pattern is in the works…well, at least for the next week or so. Let’s go over the set up and what to expect through the weekend.
The low above will follow along the stationary front and as it pushes Northward rain chances will increase, especially tomorrow . Below is a breakdown of what the models are thinking…
GFS tomorrow evening
NAM tomorrow evening
As you can see the NAM and GFS are hinting at the same set up…low reinforcing tropical like thunderstorms…which means heavy rain producers, localized flooding, and gusty winds should the storms collapse and rain themselves out.
Widespread – no. Possible – yes. Here’s the deal...The type of set up we’re dealing with is tropical (meaning humid with plenty of moisture available) and typically with these set ups clouds are a bit more stubborn to break. We’ve said time and time again sunshine adds fuel to the fire so with a lack of sun the atmosphere stabilizes..a bit. I do think we’ll see some sun region wide over the next few days so I can’t rule out hit and miss warnings but as far as organized potent severe weather is concerned…it’s not in the cards for us this go around (thank goodness.) Good ole fashion rain WITHOUT widespread severe storms? I’ll take it!! (So will my yardJ) Any of these storms that do develop and mature could produce gusty winds in addition to heavy rain. Speaking of heavy rain we’re going to monitor the threat for flooding closely. Localized flooding may become an issue if you get stuck under an aggressive thunderstorm in the coming days. A mature storm in this set up could produce 2-4” of rain easily in 2 hours. With that said not everyone will see the big boomers, heavy rain producing , storms. Scattered this afternoon/tonight…better chance of more widespread rain tomorrow.
RAIN BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES
Less sun and persistent rain chances for the next few days will keep temperatures in check , below average in fact. This afternoon a rain cooled reading of 68 popped up in Breckinridge county…the storm passed and mid 70s were quick to make a return…and with temperatures climbing. We’ll keep it humid despite cooler than average temps. Kevin will have your latest forecast coming up on WAVE 3 news at 5 pm.