The same front that teased some of us with rain Sunday (while giving some a decent amount) is going to get a 2nd chance to make some of you happy.
The moisture surge will kick in Thursday afternoon/evening. It will be the late night period into Friday that the surge will peak out.
The models keep hinting that there will be a band or "blob" of heavy rain associated with this surge. It be will following along a vort max that will move nearly due north from Nashville into Indiana. Problem is, it may not be very wide so some of you will miss out on this.
GFS ....it is a bit more east with the track of the heaviest rain, but less intense with it. It surges it right along I 65 late nitht Thursday...and does linger it some on Friday.
Late Thurs Friday
NAM is a bit more west with the vort max, and keeps the heaviest rain along that axis along and west of I 65.
late Thursday.... But on Friday, surges it way north...
We still need another good 24 hours to get a handle on expected rain amounts.
In general... most areas will fall in that .50 to .75" range. But if this vort max does indeed track over us...we could certainly see amounts of 2-4" across Kentuckiana.
We will keep an eye on the trends and keep ya posted.
Severe weather is not expected right now with this event---though intense lightning and some gusty winds certainly can be expected.
Heat wise...the long term pattern tries to build the heat in next week---but in a limited fashion. No signs yet of extreme heat coming our way---but typical days in the 90s can be expected.
If you believe the GFS model, it would be mostly in the 80s with several storm chances. But that may be overdone.
I can tell you where it won't rain...my house. Not getting my hopes up this time, too many disappointments.
Posted by: Kelly Armstrong | July 11, 2012 at 02:32 PM