Here we go again...another hot and steamy day with scattered storm chances. We do have a lot to discuss over the next 24-48 hours so lets get started.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH has been issued until 11pm. This includes all of our Indiana counties, in addition to the Louisville metro, and bascially Etown and points Northward.
We'll be battling the 1-2 punch today. Dangerous heat and storm chances. Both will play into each other as the environment will become increasingly unstable in the coming hours. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for much of WAVE country. The counties outlined in orange are under the advisory...this does include the Louisville metro. Bottom line, whether you're included or not in the advisory it will be extremely hot and muggy for all of the region. As the cumulus clouds increase with height storms will develop. Where this happens first temps may hold steady in the low 90s. Areas that see sunshine for a longer period of time will warm into the mid 90s, or higher. No matter the actual air temperature, high dew points and high humidity readings will make it feel at or above 100 degrees for nearly all of us. So take it easy today and drink lots of water.
HEAT ADVISORY
SLIGHT RISK
TORNADO RISK
HAIL RISK
DAMAGING WINDS RISK
A slight risk of severe weather has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for all of the WAVE 3 viewing area. The atmosphere will become increasingly unstable as the day goes on. An approaching cold front from the North will trigger thunderstorm development. There will be many factors playing into this possible severe weather set up. First, dew point readings will increase...68-75 degrees. This means the amount of available moisture is impressive which leads up to believe any storm that develops will produce extremely heavy rain, in addition to thousands of lightning strikes. Unlike the last few days, these storms won't be as stationary. The cold front will push them a bit which will increase their speed...so while heavy rain is expected and a quick 1-3" of rain is possible, they won't be as stationary as days past. As these storms initiate in Southwest Indiana they're likely to start supercellular. With a LI (lifted index)of -9 and CAPE (convective available potential energy) of 4500 an ideal supercell set up is possible. Should these cells become supercellular in nature large hail will become a threat as well. A moderate updraft could mean an isolated spin up when these storms first initiate. Again, the best location for these would be North of the river in our Indiana counties. The main area of shear is located in North Central Indiana. Because of this, big time tornadoes aren't in the forecast...we're missing a big component for large tornadoes. Shear is critical...it''s the twisting of the winds at different levels of the atmosphere...this was ever so present on March 2nd. Even though the strongest of the shear is well North of our area there is still enough instability in our area that should any supercell storms form an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. These storms have started to form in South Central Illinois and are crossing the Illinois/Indiana line. We expect these storms to turn more linear as the day wears on eventually sliding South and East, crossing the river, into parts of Kentucky. Severe thunderstorm chances are possible now through later this evening. As of now the best chance for any severe weather in Louisville will be around rush hour through 8 pm. We did have scattered storms roll through parts of the area earlier...we'll have to wait and see if any of those will have done just enough to lessen the potential severe threat. Either way, these summer time storms could be strong enough to mimic the set up yesterday in addition to an isolated tornado warning. As temperatures warm tomorrow we'll see a reinforcing shot of strong to severe storms primarily focused to our Southern counties. Stay tuned to WAVE 3 news for the latest.
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