Our 2 big stories lately of storms and heat....will be our 2 big stories that will continue.
Let's cover the storm threat first.
We have a few out there now...very pulse-severe (short life span) type of storms...and mainly along and west of I 65.
It is later tonight that NAM and now HRRR models are hitting hard about the idea of storms moving in from the NE.
Here is the HRRR for late this evening---most storms have faded to our west/south.
Around midnight--you can see storms developing to our N/E.
By around 2/3 am...the storms march south/west into the area.
By sunrise---the storms compact into a complex and push into SW KY.
Usually when we see these setups, high wind are possible. But evening with some gusty winds---trees may fall easier since the wind is hitting them from the opposite direction.
SPC has an outlook out for us Thursday.... some of that may be from the early morning activity combined with the boundaries the morning storms may leave for afternoon re-development in SE KY.
Word of caution however---NAM/HRRR have hinted as these complexes of storms before and they never materialized well. So this is just a heads up that the chance is there. We should see storms starting to our NE by the 11pm news tonight...so if we see that activity--I would then prepare for that increase chance for storms later tonight. Just make sure your weather radio is plugged in before bed.
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After this storm threat--the heat is the main story again. We hit 101 (so far) today. Record is 102. We could tie it even after this post is finished.
We should average out 100-105 the next few days.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS and HEAT ADVISORIES cover up our area from one end to the other.
I don't think the heat index will cross the warning criteria (110) until the weekend.
It is at that point a cold front will drop down from the north. When that happens, the moisture (dewpoints) may pool ahead of it. GFS shows that well below.
So the actual temp may drop down to 98-101 range...but the heat index could get up there over 110. Something to watch carefully.
That actual front will pass through sometime Sunday night and Monday. Timing still has to be worked out on this as it will also determine the severity of storms.
Right now, the winds aloft with this front---not impressive at all.
However, the wind direction just change---so there is some shear to work with. The moisture will then get shuved to the south by Monday PM.
We are not outlooked by SPC at this time---I suspect that will change once we get closer and they, too, can nail down timing.
Next week: The core of the heat pushes west. We get a chance to get closer to normal (88) for a few days.
There are signs by mid July that the core will attempt to push east...but nothing too fast/dramatic indicated right now.
Let's hope not.
So Brian, these storms will be moving from the north-east to the south-west correct? Also affecting southern Indiana and northern Kentucky?
*** that is correct...IF this model is CORRECT. Some keep us dry. - BG
Posted by: Stephenjacobs17 | July 04, 2012 at 06:10 PM