Storm Threat Update

Dangerous heat wave continues---but now at its end.

Sadly, 2 people in KY have lost their lives due to the heat.  Compare that to 5,000 that perished the last time we saw this heat in the 1936.   The air conditioner has certainly changed lives.  Take care of it!

The heat will be covered off/on today---so decided to post on storm threat.

Storm chances look small...and isolated today.  If one can develop---it would not last more than 20 mins before collapsing.  We will try to catch them as they pop.

It will be tomorrow that the storm chance ramps up.

I plan to break this town by timing, amounts then severe risk.

TIMING:

Cold front..heading south. FINALLY!!!!!  And it is arriving a bit faster than scheduled.

Here is HPC's frontal position by Sunday midday:

Overnight Sunday

Monday

The models vary still some on timing.

NAM

Storms break out around 2pm Sunday.

Last through overnight in...waves.

By Monday, storm chance well south.

GFS is a bit slower with this front.
It has storms by late morning/midday Sunday

Round of storms Sunday evening

More storms overnight into Monday morning...esp southern KY

And finally pushes the rain south Tuesday...but not that far south.

RAIN CHANCE TIMING:

SUNDAY

10AM-2PM: 30%
2PM-8PM: 60%
8PM-12AM: 40%
12AM-6AM: 50% mainly for KY

Andy W. will get be in later and can fine-tune these times ...this is still just an early guess as we more than 24 hours away.

RAIN AMOUNTS:
NAM is spitting out lower totals north..of .25 to maybe .50",  up to 1" to the south however

GFS is very similar... lower north of the .25" range...and 1" to maybe 1.50" south

This will highly depend on the speed of the front, as the models slow it down once it passes I 64---allowing for multiple rounds of storms for KY rather than IN.

Louisville Int'l Aiport has not see at least a .50" of rain since May 31st!!!!

SEVERE THREAT
Latest SPC for Sunday:

Higher risk east...as winds are higher aloft there...but not by much.

Winds aloft look weak, but the instability (thanks to the heat) is way way high.

NAM increased values to near 5500 (gray shade) ! 

GFS is a bit lower, but higher than earlier runs.  Near 4000.  Likely lower since it aims as faster storms development compared to the NAM.

The NAM EHI scan does show a very small risk for rotation Sunday night. We'll watch that.

SUMMARY:
Spotty storms today/evening.  Storm threat Sunday kicks in by Midday...and will come in waves all the way through early Monday.  The main "train" of storms looks to track more across KY than IN but that is still questionable.  The potential is there for 2-3" rain amounts from thunderstorms as the models understimate these events.  Some of you, unf, may get much less.  Severe threat looks pretty decent with bowing segments allowing for damaging winds.  Hail threat is there...but not very high.  Lightning threat is quite high...expect many strikes.  Heavy rain threat is high yet isolated to the storms.  Tornado threat is low and at its highest point overnight Sunday.  Whether the storms end by mid morning Monday is also questionable.  If GFS is correct, we may have a storm risk just about every day next week.  We will adjust once we get a better handle on this front. Overall---we are heading into the 80s for highs soon!! 

NOTE: The return of a heat wave has backed off on last model trends...so 80s and some low 90s look to be the highest to face over the next 1-2 weeks.  We'll let ya know if things change.

 

Comments

[Eagledragon]

What concerns me is the trend of seeing well above normal temperatures and hoping we can cool off to normal levels only to see well above normal return once again. There seems to be a rapidly increasing absence of below normal periods to balance the averages. Our gardens are all but gone and the ticks, chiggers, etc. are unbelievably prolific (and difficult to control with conventional methods).