This is the last day of any heat alerts for awhile...Heat Advisory out most of our area. Actual temp should be around 97/98. Record is 103. That looks safe. Cumulus clouds and threat for storms ...not to mention more moisture in the air (slows a temp rise) should all work together to keep us from that record. However, the added moisture adds to the heat index---hence the advisory---which could reach 105 at times.
Here is a look back at the triple digit heat of the past 2 weeks. Every 100° day was a record broken or tied. The 97° that we saw last Tuesday and likely again today---are the only exceptions to the record breaking heat. However, they added to making this the hottest stretch of weather since 1936.
Now...we prepare for storms as the game-changer cold front moves in.
LATEST SPC UPDATE:
Still a Slight Risk..and mainly Louisville east
Tornado threat is too low to plot.
Wind Threat Large Hail Threat
Rain Amounts will highly vary on placement of storms...and any "training" of the storms that may take place.
NAM- 1" amounts possible..lesser north GFS- A bit heavier on amounts...same idea on locations
Timing of the storms.
They look to pop in a scattered fashion just after noon. They may develop/fade/develop all the way into evening. After midnight, there is a chance for a more substantial band of storms to develop. It will be that band that will have to be watched for training---and perhaps flash flooding. Just hard to say where this early.
Chances:
Now-2pm: 20%
2pm-8pm: 40%
8pm-Midnight: 40%
Midnight-6am: 60%
6am-Noon: 40% and shifting south
SUMMARY:
It will be hot through the early afternoon. The longer the storms wait to form--the hotter we will get. Right now, we should fall below 100---but if storms can avoid Louisville Int'l---I would not rule out a 100 degree temp just yet.
Storm coverage looks blotchy this afternoon---though warnings are possible.
Tonight will be interesting to see how it plays out. The models have been very insistent of intense storms overnight with lots of lightning and very heavy rainfall. Potential is there for 2-3" rain amounts---with some spots only picking up .10". Challenging for sure on forecasting amounts tonight. We will have to watch that carefully.
The front pushes south Monday. Storm chance Monday and even Tuesday is still in the forecast for our southern counties. Northern counties will remain dry. Highs will get knocked back down into the 80s starting Monday.
Long range indicators sugguest the ridge of heat will have a tough time taking over again--so going to keep temps around 90 for now. Those very same models suggest the heat will attemp a comeback after the 20th.
Let's just hope we are done with the triple digits this summer. However, we still have more than 2 months of summer left. And we hit 100° last year in September---so anything is still on the table.
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