Weather Blog

What has Issac done so far?

 

 We will be watching the radar trends carefully the next few days.

We have noticed that while the core of the steady/heavy rain should be on the N/NE side of the low.  The NAM/GFS have kept indicating a wind belt on the SE quad that will need to be watched.  It may help lead to some "training' of the bands across KY/TN and perhaps SW IN. 

Something to watch carefully.

And here is what Issac as dumped so far to-date over the US Mainland:

 

RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 1 PM CDT

...ALABAMA...
DEES 3 N                            14.53                    
WILMER 7.9 SE                       11.96                    
GRAND BAY 0.6 NW                    11.07                    
MOBILE/BATES FIELD                   9.85                    
FAIRHOPE 2.3 N                       6.42                    
DAPHNE 1.8 ESE                       5.87                    
THEODORE 8.0 SSE                     5.12                    
POINT CLEAR 1.6 SSW                  5.04                    
SILVERHILL 0.9 SSE                   4.34                    
FOLEY 2.0 SSW                        3.71                    

...ARKANSAS...
PINE BLUFF                           8.50                    
KINGSLAND                            6.95                    
FORDYCE                              6.10                    
STAR CITY                            5.39                    
EGYPT                                5.25                    
STEPROCK                             5.15                    
MONTICELLO 1.6 WNW                   5.09                    
WHITE HALL 4.1 NNW                   5.08                    
ARKANSAS CITY                        5.00                    
MONTICELLO                           4.38                    
STUTTGART MUNI ARPT                  4.08                    
SEARCY MUNI ARPT                     3.52                    
EL DORADO/GOODWIN FIELD              3.24                    
LITTLE ROCK 2.2 N                    3.13                    

...FLORIDA...
VERO BEACH 5.2 S                    16.60                    
ROYAL PALM BEACH 5.0 W              16.29                    
BOYNTON BEACH 1.9 NNW               14.41                    
PORT ST LUCIE 1.5 NE                13.04                    
ABERDEEN 4.2 NNW                    12.41                    
PALM CITY 4.0 SW                    11.69                    
HOMESTEAD AFB                        9.37                    
FORT PIERCE/ST LUCIE                 9.18                    
WEST PALM BEACH INTL ARPT            8.64                    
FORT LAUDERDALE EXECUTIVE APT        7.02                    
MIAMI/OPA LOCKA                      6.64                    
POMPANO BEACH AIRPARK                5.33                    
WINTER HAVEN GILBERT ARPT            5.19                    
HOLLYWOOD/NORTH PERRY ARPT           5.12                    

...GEORGIA...
GUYTON 1.9 S                         5.60                    
BROOKLET 13.1 SE                     4.60                    
RINCON 1.2 NNW                       4.03                    
MONROE 5.6 NNE                       3.11                    
JESUP 7.1 N                          3.04                    
AUGUSTA/BUSH FIELD                   2.53                    
ALMA/BACON CO. ARPT                  2.49                    
SAVANNAH MUNI ARPT                   2.47                    
FORT STEWART/WRIGHT AAF              2.06                    
AUGUSTA/DANIEL FIELD                 1.95                    
MOODY AFB/VALDOSTA                   1.50                    

...LOUISIANA...
NEW ORLEANS                         20.08                    
RESERVE 0.5 SSE                     13.46                    
LIVINGSTON                          13.16                    
ABITA SPRINGS 1.9 NE                12.36                    
HAMMOND 2.3 WSW                     11.93                    
TERRYTOWN 3.3 S                     10.56                    
SLIDELL                             10.40                    
ALEXANDRIA/ESLER                     7.00                    
BATON ROUGE/RYAN MUNI ARPT           5.02                    
BOOTHVILLE                           4.20                    
MONROE RGNL ARPT                     2.47                    
PATTERSON MEMORIAL ARPT              2.02                    
LAFAYETTE RGNL ARPT                  1.55                    

...MISSOURI...
WEST PLAINS                          2.29                    
AVA 0.8 NNW                          1.92                    
COLUMBIA RGNL ARPT                   1.76                    
JOPLIN RGNL ARPT                     1.61                    

...MISSISSIPPI...
KILN 3.3 N                          17.04                    
MARION RAWS/COLUMBIA                15.02                    
SAUCIER 1.7 NNE                     12.78                    
PICAYUNE 5.6 ENE                    12.17                    
DIAMONDHEAD 1.5 NE                  12.04                    
LONG BEACH 0.7 S                    11.95                    
MCCOMB/LEWIS FIELD                  11.02                    
GULFPORT-BILOXI                     10.85                    
PASCAGOULA                          10.73                    
KEESLER AFB/BILOXI                  10.17                    
HATTIESBURG/CHAIN MUNI ARPT          9.44                    
JACKSON                              4.76                    
GREENVILLE                           4.39                    
MERIDIAN/KEY FIELD                   4.00                    

...NORTH CAROLINA...
WILMINGTON/NEW HANOVER CO. ARPT      4.07                    
JACKSONVILLE/ELLIS AIRPORT           1.50                    

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
MOUNT PLEASANT 5.5 NNE               9.08                    
PAWLEYS ISLAND 5.6 NNE               8.36                    
CHARLESTON 2.8 NE                    7.36                    
JOHNS ISLAND 9.0 SE                  6.44                    
MEGGETT 1.8 W                        4.85                    
BEAUFORT MCAS                        3.59                    
ROCK HILL-YORK CO. ARPT              2.89                    
DARLINGTON                           1.75                    

 

The Isaac Effect (Part 2)

Isaac is heading right into WAVE Country this holiday weekend, and it's bringing plenty of needed rainfall.  This will help out our drought situation; however, there are a ton of outdoor plans this weekend in jeopardy.  Here's my current thinking on what we will have on our hands with Isaac:

*Not a complete washout.  There will be breaks in the rainfall and even a few breaks in the clouds.  The rain will be off and on through Monday with heavy downpours at times.

*Through Monday, rain totals could be 2"-3" in Kentucky... and 2"-4" in Indiana.  This is a generalization and some locations could receive more due to training storms.

*The heaviest rain will fall on Saturday and Sunday, but it won't rain the entire time.

*We will see a few storms with this; however, severe storms are not expected in our area.  That being said, I'm still going to be on the lookout for the potential for wind damage.  An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, but the threat is quite low.

*Flooding is the main concern with this system right now.

_________________________________________________________________________________

Timing of the rain and storms:

TODAY

Now-4pm:  20% chance

4pm-9pm:  30% chance

9pm-12am:  40% chance

 

TOMORROW

12am-6am:  50% chance

6am-3pm:  60% chance

3pm-12am:  80% chance

 

SUNDAY

12am-8am:  70% chance

8am-7pm:  80% chance

7pm-12am:  60% chance

 

MONDAY

12am-6pm:  60% chance

6pm-12am:  30%  chance

________________________________________________________________________________

Latest Thoughts on Weekend

 

All types of rain amounts being thrown out there ...so I know it is confusing on what to expect this weekend and when.

Let me break it down to you this way.

Here is what we DO know:

-We do know the low (Isaac) will track north toward Missouri
- We do know we are going to be on the east and/or southeast side as the low moves through
- We do know rain is likely Saturday/Sunday and Monday
- We do know someone is going to get several inches of rain
- We do know the rain will come down extremely hard...making travel difficult
- We do know it will be breezy at times.

What we DO NOT know:

- We do not know the exact path of the low pressure after it arrives in Missouri
- We do not know the forward motion speed of the low as it moves through
- We do not know where the strongest bands of rain will develop.
- We do not know if training of the storms is going to take place
- We do not know if we will see severe storms.
- We do not know the specific times of day in which rain is more likely over another.

Decaying tropical systems like this are a challenge as the westerly wind belt that moves over our latitudes can help keep the low energized enough to produce some gusty winds/heavy rain.  That can sometimes go against want a model indicates.  The key to these events is to see how it has "behaved" compared to the models thus far.  One thing that has stood out there---rain amounts have been exceeded model amounts. 

I do think that is why HPC is going pretty high on forecast amounts. 

Because their amounts are certainly higher than the model outputs.

Model Maps:

GFS:

NAM:

Specific Output numbers for Louisville:

GFS:  1.11"
NAM:  .94" * can only see through Sunday evening
EURO:  3.10"

HPC will update their map in about 90 mins.  We will post it once it is issued.
Right now, I think 1-3" with pockets up to 4" is certainly feasible. 

If dewpoints do climb higher than the low 70s current forecast---yes, I could see the 4-7" rain amounts becoming more realistic.  Especially with training of thunderstorms over the same spots..over and over again.  I just do not see that being widespread right now and we don't want to cause a panic over such high rain totals.

We are still 48 hours away from the heaviest rain moving in---so we have time to fine-tune and adjust.  Just keep checking back.

WINDS:
The winds will not be anything like what the Gulf witnessed---but gusts of 30 to 35 mph are possible.

NAM can see out to Sunday---and it does have some elevated winds aloft---but nothing alarming.

GFS is a bit more aggressive late Sunday with a 40 kt wind right on the SE corner of the low.  We will have to watch to see if that comes to light.  That, combined with thunderstorms, could lead to a damaging wind threat Sunday evening. 

SPC does not have us outlooked for severe weather yet.  They seem to be taking their outlooks day by day.  This tells me they have low confidence on the track and instability as well.  I would agree.

EHI scans on the NAM for Sunday are off the chart.  I would expected tornado warnings potentially in that area.

NAM cannot see what happens after that...but if it follows what the GFS was hinting to---some brief rotating storms may be possible later Sunday into Monday.  We'll watch that.

TIMING:
Clouds from Isaac already teasing the KY/TN border today.  We will see those stream north tonight/Friday.

Friday-  chance looks to be about 20% and mostly where the dewpoint surge will be.  Which would take place along and south of a line from near Evansville to Greensburg. 

Friday night-  showers continue in the same zone above..but lifting closer to the Ohio River by Saturday morning.

Saturday.  chance looks to be about 60%.  We will start to see the eastern-most bands from Isaac affecting the area.  Storms will be spotty...but producing heavy downpours.  up to 1 of rain is possible for some by Saturday evening.

Saturday night: chance should increase to 70%.  Rain remains on the radar.  Locally heavy.

Sunday:  Chance at 80 to 90%.  Periods of rain/thunderstorms.  If the main low is across IL/IN...that is where the steady hours on end rainfall take place.  For our viewing area--it will likely fall in waves.  Each one with very heavy rain.  Severe threat would reach its peak at this point as well as gusty winds alone from the low pressure.  Sunday looks to be the main day for Isaac to affect us full on.

Monday/Labor Day.  The low begins to lose its characteristics as a low pressure and becomes more frontal in nature.  So the winds will relax.  But bands of storms will continue.  Highest chances look to be east of I 65 by Monday afternoon.  NOTE:  the latest EURO aims at MONDAY as being the heaviest rain day over Sunday.  That is a new trend on this latest run.  I would like to see the run tonight match that before jumping on it.

We are not fullly there yet folks with all the answers...but we are getting closer and closer :)

By the way--- there is a decent trough/cool down showing up near the 8th.  I havne't forgot about long-term tracking as well.  Just the above event is more pressing right now.

 

The Isaac Effect

 AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR TODAY:

From the NWS in Louisville: ...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THE LOUISVILLE METRO AIR POLLUTION CONTROL DISTRICT AND THE INDIANA
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT HAVE ISSUED AN AIR QUALITY
ALERT...IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT.

A CODE ORANGE AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR OZONE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
LOUISVILLE METRO AREA. MEMBERS OF SENSITIVE GROUPS MAY EXPERIENCE
HEALTH EFFECTS. THE GENERAL PUBLIC IS NOT LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED.
SENSITIVE GROUPS INCLUDE THE ELDERLY...CHILDREN...PERSONS WITH
ASTHMA OR OTHER BREATHING PROBLEMS...AND PERSONS WITH LUNG AND HEART
DISEASE. PEOPLE IN THESE GROUPS ARE ADVISED TO LIMIT THEIR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES TO REDUCE THEIR EXPOSURE TO OZONE AND PARTICULATE
POLLUTION.
________________________________________________________________________________

Here are your chances to see rain from Isaac:

FRIDAY:  30% chance... mainly after 5pm.

SATURDAY:  70% chance... gusty winds possible.

SUNDAY:  80% chance... gusty winds possible.

MONDAY:  40% chance... mainly before 6pm.

________________________________________________________________________________

How much rain should we expect?

It's possible to see up to 2" of rain in KY and up to 3" in Southern Indiana.  The lightest amounts of rainfall will be in South Central KY.

 

Weekend Latest

 

Focus obviously on Isaac and how to handle this weekend forecast. Not an easy feat.

Isaac is a ton of moisture with it.  As typically the case with tropical systems of course.  So that high moisture content will stay in tact as it travels toward our area this weekend. 

Dewpoints are forecast to be in the 70s on various models including the GFS. 

Fri                                                    Sat

                  

Sun                                                     Mon

            

That means any shower/storms that can tap into that moisture can produce 2" of rain per hour.  Some spots...even higher.  With a hard ground ...that can lead to runoff and flash flooding.

With tropical lows like this...there is usually a NE quad of steady rain.  The SE quad is usually where thunderstorms develop.  Both areas can produce several inches of rain---just 2 different ways.   The steady rain is the best bet.  So the track of that low is crucial in determining the areas that see that part.  The convective SE quad is more of a challenge.  Thunderstorms are more scattered in this zone---and can sometimes "train" over the same spots like a feeder band.  Obviously the steady NE quad is easier to forecast on rain amounts.  The SE quad---not easy at all.

So what is the latest track?

Models still vary from western MO to west KY.

GFS aims the heaviest rain to our west and then north. 

NAM (can only see out through Friday) looks to be a bit more east...aiming toward southern IL/IN and perhaps KY.   But too early to be sure on this model.

EURO-- I can't show it yet as it is still downloading.  However, I just sampled the raw data from it and it does appear to aiming more toward KY than IN with heaviest rain.  I will let you know once the maps come out.

 

TIMING:

This, too, depends on the model.  The more west 'swing' it makes before turning toward us---the longer it will take to get the rain in here.  Some bring it in Friday. Some wait until Sunday.  Some in the middle on Saturday.

Right now, I like late Saturday/Sunday and Labor Day as highest rain threat zone.  Friday and Saturday may have a few storms..especially south/west---but the main event looks more for the 2nd half of the holiday weekend.

I know we have a lot going on this weekend.   Many of you have questions on those events (esp the game) and many of you WANT the rain to help with your yards/farms.   We will do the best we can to give you timing answers as the data becomes more clear.  Just just ask for your patience :)

WINDS:
The low will be able to produce some breezes certainly...but nothing like what the Gulf is seeing of course. 

NAM winds are strongest (as expected ) on the e/se side.  (can only see out until Friday as mentioned)

GFS is broader with the winds.  Enough for winds of about 20 mph or so at times at the surface.

The question will be if any storms develop and tap into the winds aloft for severe wind gusts.  Right now---I am not too impressed with that notion until we gauge the track and instability factors. No way to do that with confidence right now.

Stay tuned for more updates.

Isaac Headlines

LATEST ADVISORY:  At the 8am update,  Isaac remains a category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds.  It is moving very slowly toward the Northwest at 6mph.   The main threat with this storm now is the long duration of wind and rain over the Gulf causing power outages, wind damage and flooding.

DEATH TOLL:  Days ago, as Isaac moved through the Caribbean, the tropical storm at that time was responsible for the death of 29 people in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

FIRST LANDFALL:  Isaac made its first US landfall last night around 6:45pm near the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana.  This is a sparsely populated stretch of land that extends out into the Gulf.  The eye of the hurricane then moved westward out over sea again.

SECOND LANDFALL:  Isaac made its second US landfall early this morning around 3:15am near Port Fourchon, Louisiana with winds remaining at 80mph.  This is just south-southwest of New Orleans.

LEVEE BREACH:  There was a levee breach this morning as water came over a levee in the town of Braithwaite in Plaquemines Parish, about 95 miles from New Orleans.  Water has “overtopped” this levee and is causing extensive flooding, according to the National Weather Service.  This levee is not one of the large, federally maintained earthworks lining the Mississippi River, but a locally maintained levee some 8 feet high, and lower than the 12-foot surge that hit it, according to officials from the Army Corps of Engineers.

STORM SURGE:  A storm surge of 11 feet was reported at Shell Beach, Louisiana, late Tuesday while a surge of 6.9 feet was reported in Waveland, Mississippi.

EXPECTED RAINFALL:

 

ALL ABOUT HURRICANE ISAAC

As of 2 PM Isaac has strengthened to a category 1 hurricane. The next update will be at 5pm...stay tuned to WAVE 3 news at 5 for the most up to date information. Below are the latest statistics on Hurricane Isaac.

WINDS: 75 miles per hour

PRESSURE: 975 mb

LOCATION: 28.4N 88.7W

MOVEMENT: NW at 10 miles per hour

 

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...Hurricane Isaac has sustained winds at 75 miles per hour. While this storm spans hundreds of miles in circumference not everyone will see hurricane force winds. Below is an image depicting the percentages as it relates to hurricane force winds. The yellow represents a 40-50% chance that locations in yellow will see winds at or above 74 miles per hour. The shades of green also represent locations that will see hurricane force winds. These numbers and the information below are based on the National Hurricane Center’s track on Isaac.

 

STORM SURGE PROBABILITIES...Are higher in the purples and reds. The big area of purple represents storm surge that is forecast to exceed the allowed level before flooding occurs. In that area there’s a 90-100% chance that storm surge will be devastating and dangerous for areas located in purple. Notice the purple indicator is butted up to New Orleans. Storm surge will be a huge concern for parts of Louisiana and even more so in Mississippi. Storm surge of 6-12 feet are possible with localized higher totals. Rainfall in some places could approach 18+ inches.

MISSISSIPPI AREAS ON HIGH ALERT FROM STORM SURGE:

-          Gulfport

-          Bay St. Louis

-          Biloxi

-          Diamondhead

TORNADO POTENTIAL...The Storm Prediction highlights a 5% tornado risk for much of the Gulf. While these tornadoes won’t be large long tracked tornadoes they can become strong enough to cause damage as we’re concerned not only for flooding, storm surge, but tornadoes too.

 

POTENTIAL RAINFALL TOTALS...Will continue to change over the next few days. While Isaac’s landfall is expected later today/tonight there are still so many questions that won’t be answered for at least two-three days regarding our forecast. If you looked at my blog from yesterday Kentuckiana was on the cusp of heavy rain now the remnants of Isaac are forecasted to influence the Ohio Valley more significantly. It’s impossible to say how much rain, if any, we’ll see from Isaac. Some models shoot the rain too far West while others bring it through Arkansas and Northward into our area. At this point I’d say prepare for rain Saturday/Sunday but we’ll fine tune it the next few days.

STORMY START TO THE WEEK - LATEST UPDATES ON ISAAC

FINALLY…SOME RAIN

Scattered showers and storms have developed along a cold front this afternoon. Brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning are possible with any thunderstorm that develops. While soaking rains are much needed these showers/storms will come and go rather quickly not allowing rain totals to be impressive. These storms are also feeding off the daytime heating so as the sun sets and the front passes the rain will come to an end from the Northwest to the Southeast. Temperatures will range this afternoon from the mid 70s/low 80s in our Northern counties to upper 80s/low 90s in our Southern counties. Remember, the warmest readings will be found directly ahead of the front…hence the reason low 90s are possible to our South as the front approaches them later this evening. All of us are dealing with humid air. Dew point remains near 70 degrees as the humidity will remain in the upper 50s/60s percentile. The muggy meter is noticeably higher today.

NEXT FEW DAYS…

This cold front is a quick mover as sunshine and dry conditions will make a return as early as tomorrow. There may be a stray shower in our Southeastern counties tomorrow morning but everyone will become dry and clear by tomorrow afternoon. While dry air will work in the next few days on the heels of high pressure we won’t see a drastic drop in daytime highs in the wake of the front. Plenty of sunshine can be expected through mid to late week with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.

 

BIG QUESTION MARK

Will be the remnants of Tropical Storm Isaac. At this point it looks as if parts of Kentuckiana will see some rain. It just depends on where Isaac makes landfall. While the images below look as if Isaac is about to make landfall the center of this storm is still several hundred miles off shore and it’s moving as slow as a snail. This means landfall isn’t expected until Tuesday evening/Wednesday morning and it will remain slow as it tracks across the deep South and into the Ohio Valley. Latest information places the effects of Isaac in our area by the end of the week and into the weekend. With it being the holiday weekend, we’ll continue to track this storm closely and fine tune the forecast as we approach the weekend.

LATEST ON ISAAC

Isaac remains a tropical storm with winds to 65 miles per hour, pressure of 984 mb, and moving NW 14 mph. Data last night suggest Isaac would be a hurricane by now possibly making landfall as a category 2/3 hurricane. As I mentioned in my blog last night dry air was wrapping into the storm hindering its ability to “explode” over open water. There is still dry air present so we’ll have to wait and see if the dry air will win out. Either way dry air or not the gulf coast will still see devastating effects from Isaac whether it makes landfall as a tropical storm or a hurricane. While the dry air is present Isaac is now over open water, warm water at that, which typically allows tropical storms to grow quickly. Also, the pressure  is d Forecasters will eagerly be waiting for the 5pm update from hurricane hunters and we’ll of course bring you the latest as we get it.

 

THREATS OF ISAAC

Will range depending on where you’re located in proximity to the center of the storm. The rain bands are some 200-400 miles away from the center of the storm. By circumference this storm is huge. Because of this the wind fields are impressive so downed power lines will be a problem for several days (since this is such a slow mover.) Storm surge will also be devastating to many…with surge as high as 12 feet for some. Where the shear is at it’s highest, the right front quadrant or Northeast of the center of the storm, a tornado threat will increase as the storm approaches. While large tornadoes aren’t likely quick spin ups with enough umph are certainly possible.

STORM SURGE...WATCH OUT NEW ORLEANS

 

RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH SATURDAY

Notice the highest totals are forecasted to our South and West. As mentioned, the farther West Isaac makes landfall the more of a chance the rain will be to our West, possibly wrapping around us. Something to watch...

We’ll continue to update you on today’s wet weather and the latest on Isaac coming up on WAVE 3 news starting at 5pm. Stay tuned.

ISAAC TO POSSIBLY MAKE LANDFALL 7 YEARS TO THE DAY AFTER KATRINA

8 PM UPDATE

The tropics have been
relatively quiet this season but that's about to change. All eyes are on the
gulf coast as tropical Storm Isaac continues to strengthen. The latest 8pm
update shows Isaac strengthening. Winds are now 65 miles per hour and the
pressure has dropped 1 mb to 991 from 992.. Remember the lower the pressure the
stronger the storm.  Isaac is moving WNW at 15 mph.

 

NEXT UPDATE...is scheduled for 11pm as hurricane
hunters continue to fly into the storm and gather information. While satelitte
and radar show Isaac strengthening until the 8pm update it's actual numbers
weren't increasing in strength. I expect the pressure to drop a few more
millibars by 11pm as the storm continues to push West of Key West into open
waters.

 

 

MODEL UNCERTAINTY...The last few days the GFS and
European models have gone back and forth on where Isaac is expected to make
landfall. This is why the projected path (cone) covers such a broad
area...Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Hurricane warnings have already been
posted for parts of Florida and the gulf states in anticipation of Isaac's
direct hit to one of these locations.

 

HURRICANE WARNINGS...Span several states. This is
because we expect Isaac to strengthen into a hurricane, possibly a category 2 or
3 before making landfall Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. As of the last
update it appears Isaac will likly become a hurricane by late tomorrow afternoon
or tomorrow evening. There are several factors we continue to monitor as this
storm strengthens. To the North and West of the storm dry air sits...we expect
this to break down but it's something to watch as this would hinder the storm
from strengthening to it's potential. In addition Isaac is traveling into warm
water and a moist atmosphere. This will quickly fuel the storm and help it to
gain strength. Tropical storm winds will extend up to 200 miles Northeast of the
center of the storm and 100-150 miles to the Southeast. Storm surge will also be
impressive and another concern. As heavy rain bands extend from the center of
the storm quick spin ups can develop that's why a tornado threat also needs to
be included. Because this storm is such a large scale storm (some 200+ miles
wide) flooding rains will be a huge threat too as this storm will impact
relastate for days to come.

 

Bottom line...check back with us on Isaac's
progress as we're still a few days away from landfall and nearly 4-5 days from
rain possibly influencing us. The farther West Isaac makes landfall will
increase our chance of rain by Thursday-Sunday. If it takes more of an Easterly
turn and makes a direct hit to Pensacola or East, Eastern KY or near Virgina may
stand a better chance at soaking rains. We'll watch it closely and I'll have the
latest updates coming up on WAVE 3 news after football.

 

Latest on Isaac and its potential KY Visit

 

We decided last week to lean in the direction that Isaac likely would impact KY---and the data continues to support this trend.

LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK FROM  NHC:

It is still a tropical storm..but the overcast canopy is filling in nicely and we are seeing a hurricane taking shape folks as it passes over the Keys this evening.

Latest water temps show how warm it is in that area---and while the central Gulf isn't AS warm--still quite a bit of fuel for this storm to work with.

The models keep shifting toward Louisiana for a landfall risk.  That isn't good news as that means Isaac would stay over water longer---and therefore stronger.  Folks in New Orleans I hope are paying carefully attention as we could be up for a major hurricane once again for that region.

The GFS (Which last week went with the curving to the sharp right idea) now is west.  By Wed, it brings landfall to near New Orleans with quite a battering of storm surge.

By Friday, the GFS takes its time with the storm..and moves it toward AR.

Then, finally, Saturday night---brings it into the Ohio Valley.  Yes--I know--Labor Day Weekend.

The Canadian Model is similar...and deep.  Showing a 984mb low near LA/MS coasts.

But by the weekend---it takes Isaac WAYYY north toward Chicago!

The EURO (which was does great in tropical forecasting...and was the ONLY model showing a Gulf 'cane last week) brings the hurricane toward MS coast.  So deep---I can't even read how many isobars there are.

Then takes it toward west KY by Friday.

There are 2 actual hurricane models.  GFDL and HWRF.

GFDL:
Brings it toward LA as a Cat 1

HWRF: 
a bit more west...but stronger---Cat 2

So what is likely to happen?

I think we will see a Cat 3 storm...perhaps even a bit stronger---depending on how far west/long it tracks over the Gulf.  Louisana/MS coasts need to be especially alert.  But I would not rule anything out for the FL panhandle yet--just feel it will be more likely west.

Then once it makes landfall...we have to figure out---does it swing way west then up to our north over the weekend? Or straight into KY by Friday?

I am leaning toward the EURO at the moment as it has done the best with this setup so far.

I would expect rain chances to ramp up Friday/Saturday...and be prepared for a delay that could extend into Sunday. 
Heavy rain would be the main threat since we would be on the east side of this storm ...winds look gusty---but nothing off the charts that I can see.  Keep in mind, the IKE storm wasn't about it just being a former hurricane--there are other pressure systems involved that lead to a very rare event.  So we are not forecasting an IKE repeat here.  Just a risk for gusty wind with a steady rain.  Tornado threat will need to be monitored.

HPC keeps heaviest rain to our south/east.  I have a feeling they will keep pushing that more north/west. So I will wait to post that graphic.  However, GFS below does show the risk of several inches of rain in the path of this system.  Will it be us?  West of us? North?  South? Who knows yet.  But that risk is why we have to watch this carefully.

We will monitor the changes.  Nothing is set in stone and a lot could still change that would completely alter the weekend outlook.  So I would not adjust holiday weekends plans just yet.  But I would think of a back-up plan in the back of your mind to be ready.

SHORT-TERM--- storms possible this afternoon. Isolated. Better chance Monday.  Not expecting severe storms---but a few could get strong due to the afternoon heating.  More on that as it evolves.