Latest on Weekend Severe Risk

 

Some spots seeing  decent downpours today.  As usually, it will be scattered.

Overnight, the complex held together well to give IL/IN/W KY some decent totals.  Evansville reached about 2.5".  It shrunk in size and intensity once it reached our area---as expected.

We will have the vort max in our area today---so new developing of showers/storms will continue over IN/KY.  Any cloud breaks will aid in that new development.  Severe storms are not likely --but a few gusty storms are possible in the afternoon.

Latest RUC starts to push the main vort to east KY by this afternoon--taking most of the rain chances with if.  However, boundaries left over from it should keep the risk for a shower/storm tonight and into Saturday.  No obvious triggers for such otherwise.

SPC does not have us in the outlook today.  But you can see how the front to the north is already sparking off the risk for severe weather there later.

Saturday---the risk gets closer as does the front. 

Sunday--the front arrives---severe risk placed in our area.

Timing/location of the storms Sunday will be tough.

There are signs from the various models..including the GFS that there will be a weakening squall-line of storms moving in just after midnight Saturday night/Sunday morning. Mainly north of I 64.

Depending on how quickly those move...and where the actual front IS Sunday afternoon---will determine when the "new" line of storms will fire.

GFS aims from Larue County north/east into Frankfort as the highest intitation zone.

But I must caution---if the overnight Saturday storms do not affect us---and we could be quite unstable Sunday midday/afternoon.  Also---if the front is still to our west..say near Evansville by 2/3pm...then just about all of us all run the risk for this "new" line of strong storms.  So timing is everything.  We just will have to take it one day at a time.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm ERNESTO continues to strengthen.  It is forecast to become a 85 mph hurricane by next Wed.  The track however...is now starting to coming it a bit more north after Monday on some of the latest models.

Landfall could be from TX to the Gulf Coast states a week from today.  But that is a BIG if.

I would not cancel/adjust plans just yet---hurricane predictions are just as fickle as winter storms.

Just stay alert to the latest on the track.