Nice weekend underway...forecast looks pretty straight-forward with one bump to gauge through.
The NAM/GFS do show another front moving in from the north Sunday. At the same time, a low (from the old front that came through last Thursday) develops and tracks to our south and east. Both will attempt to squeeze out some moisture in the process late Sunday and Monday. This will be tough given how dry we are and sometimes the models can return the moisture into our area too fast.
Latest model outputs between GFS/NAM are noticable.
GFS: Notice it has dewpoints rising to near 60. So it increasing cloud (OV) and pop12 (rain chance) goes to around 30%
HR 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 00 06
X/N 81 62 81 62 79
TMP 63 71 78 80 76 70 66 64 63 73 78 78 74 69 66 64 64 72 76 74 66
DPT 61 58 55 54 54 56 58 58 58 59 56 55 55 57 59 59 59 60 58 58 60
CLD SC SC SC SC BK BK OV BK BK BK BK OV OV OV OV OV BK BK BK BK CL
WDR 02 05 36 33 36 02 36 27 36 33 28 28 34 01 34 35 34 34 34 36 36
WSP 05 03 04 05 07 03 03 02 02 03 04 07 07 05 04 04 04 07 08 07 04
P06 1 1 1 9 4 9 20 12 15 20 11
P12 7 9 10 32 27
NAM: Is a bit drier. Keeps dewpoints maxed in the low to mid 50s and rain chances only into the 20s to maybe 40.
NAM MOS (MET)
KSDF NAM MOS GUIDANCE 8/18/2012 0000 UTC
DT /AUG 18 /AUG 19 /AUG 20 /
HR 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 18 00
X/N 84 62 84 62 83
TMP 67 64 64 73 80 83 79 73 68 65 64 76 81 82 77 72 67 64 63 79 78
DPT 54 53 53 53 51 50 51 52 52 52 52 51 48 48 49 51 53 53 54 55 56
CLD FW BK FW SC FW FW FW CL CL CL FW SC SC BK BK BK SC SC BK SC OV
WDR 35 36 35 35 35 34 31 27 33 31 30 29 31 32 28 12 11 12 12 20 25
WSP 05 05 04 05 04 05 04 04 02 02 02 05 08 08 07 04 03 03 03 06 05
P06 3 2 4 2 4 6 17 6 24 27 24
P12 6 13 17 24 41
NAM model does shows the chance Sunday evenin/Monday. Not impressive.
I decided to play it safe and put in 20% rain chances for Monday for now. It may be late Sunday into Monday for timing---but didn't want to get that worked over regarding sprinkles or a light shower this early. Just know there may be at least some increase in cloud cover as the atmosphere tries to moisten up to produce rain. Just will it be successful?
After that front/low clear the region---we stay status-quo with high pressure keeping us protected.
The high will lose its grip by next weekend. That is when the south winds off the Gulf of Mexico should allow for a better chance for those dewpoints to reach back into the 60s and the risk for thunderstorms returns.
GFS continues to go wild for the first weekend of September. Now showing a tropical cyclone aiming at NYC (Irene anyone?) with a sharp drop in temp for us.
Eh---we'll see.
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