Lots to talk about.
First, the heavy rain this morning has been impressive. Green/Taylor/Marion counties picked up a quick 1-2" just before sunrise.
Hardin/Larue picked up nearly 3".
Both areas experienced very intense lightning.
Here are the KYMESONET rain totals...many saw more than was is shown here. Nothing took place across IN or Louisville Metro.
But could that change?
Latest HRRR model says yes.
We still have a boundary over the region---so any heating today will help fire up those boundaries with showers and storms. Just like what we have seen this morning, very heavy rain---intense lightning the main issues. However, with some daytime heating--the risk for storms to reach higher heights and collapse could lead to damaging wind gusts. So a few warnings may get issued later.
Here is what HRRR shows for 2pm: Scattered storms
4pm: more scattered storms
8pm: storms start to fade as the atmosphere gets worked over a bit. However, note what is happening to our west in IL/MO.
The ingredients are lining up for the storms to our west to maintain themselves during the overnight and push into IN/KY after midnight.
The wind belt at that time is pretty strong for early August.
So it would not surprise me to see watches and/or warnings last into the overnight. How far east until they weaken is the question. Too early to know. But the wind fields at least would support a strong storm threat overnight.
SPC OUTLOOK TODAY THOUGH TONIGHT: Accounts for the line of storms to get close near midnight
During Sunday, it will be a race of how quickly we get rid of the overnight clouds/storms and break back out into sunshine.
To me, it appears a new line of storms will form after 2pm.
The tail end of the cold front may not slice through as easily as the northern part since the winds aloft turn more westerly across southern KY/TN. So I think the line will "snake" across the state.
We will have to watch that "wiggling" portion across west KY as the EHI scans are high enough there to warrent a tornado threat.
SPC OUTLOOK SUNDAY: all of us in the zone
Could the afternoon storms miss Louisville tomorrow? There is that chance yes. It allllllll depends on when/where the intitial firing of storms takes place. I think the risk is highest along and east of I 65. We shall see.
Monday-Wednesday looks quiet with lower humidity at place. Though the Sunday front won't be far to our south---only into TN.
Tropics are heating up:
ERNESTO will likely enter the Gulf of Mexico next week---but another front coming into our area likely would mean ERNESTO would turn more west..than north. Again...all about timing of both. If the front pushes in before ERNESTO reaches the Gulf---the risk for it to turn north would be an issue.
FLORENCE has a good shot to track far west. No worries with this one until about a week from today.
And there is a disturbance near FL that isn't orgnanized just yet---but is making the weather pretty squally for the beachgoers.