Storm UPDATE and Cool TALK!?!?

 

I am sure the highs in the 70s part caught your eye---more on that in a moment.

First--today's storms.

There are still quite a bit of uncertainties on timing/intensity of the storms today.  This isn't a situation where we are sunny all day and then storms fire.  The showers/storms this morning add some stabilization to the atmosphere--so the question then will be---will we see a break midday/early afternoon (i.e., sunshine) to reverse the effects of the current rain? 

Here is the setup this morning. 

Red area-...decent CAPES --so storms likely to hold their own or increase as they push east.
Blue area-... become stable.  Rain area should keep shrinking
Purple area-...most likely zone for new developing later today.

 

CAPES are showing up (albeit low) in the purple zone just ahead of the cold front.  Clouds are pretty extensive in this area now---but some thinning is expected once the storms in central KY and IN push more east.

Shear is there along the front.  Enough certainly to produce warnings for wind damage.  So if we can become unstable---the energy is there.

Perhaps the most impressive are the PWATS.  This is the amount of moisture in the air.  Values over 2 are quite high..and found ahead of this front.  This means any storm has the chance to produce 2-3" of rain in just one hour.  AKA---flash flooding.  High  PWATS also lead to intense lightning strikes. 

So now we wait to see how the morning progresses.

SPC has us in the SLIGHT RISK for storms in case there is re-development later on.  They will adjust this map near 9am.

I do not see this as a major outbreak at all---but I think the flooding/lightning risk may end up being the main concerns today if the storms can become organized.

Timing looks to be 11am-3pm for new development.  And that should be in the purple zone or perhaps a bit closer to our area. 

After 3pm the storms should be crossing mainly into KY and out of IN.

By 5/6pm---the storms should line up in an east/west fashion across our southern counties.

Those of you from near Hart over to Green/Taylor/Adiar will be the slowest to clear out of the rain threat as the winds turn west.  This means the front will nearly put the brakes on for you guys.  We will watch that for any "training" of heavier rain.

LOOKING AHEAD:

Mon-Wed still look dry and less humid--but not overly cool.  Still expecting upper 80s and low 90s.

One change we have been watching ( I believe Belski posted the other day on how the GFS has been hinting at this) will be a large drop in temps for the weekend.

GFS has a cool core developing over the Great Lakes by Saturday.

EURO is much further south...nearly over us.

This means there is a chance highs may not hit 80 this weekend into early the next week.  Especially across IN.  And if clear skies hold---50s are likely at night.

Nice huh?  If only this will hold through the State Fair---but I doubt it.

This cool snap also will play a role with ERNESTO and its track.  The EURO would push ERNESTO more west than north.

Overall--after today--- the forecast looks pretty quiet with perhaps something to look forward to next weekend.

Stay tuned--as they say.

Comments

[Kevin Freund]

Wrong again--no rain at all