Nice weekend take shape ONCE we get rid of these stratus clouds. We should see them break up more and more as we feel the drier air filter in. Painfully slow process to get low level moisture out of the Ohio River Valley.
Unfortunately, this break looks brief.
Our next weathermaker already showing up to our southwest. It was forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico for a day or two by the models--but instead--it plans to take I-20 across the southeast US. This means it will arrive here faster.
In fact, the breaks of sunshine we pick up later today and first part of Sunday, will get replaced with high clouds from the TX low by tomorrow afternoon.
The rain should start to push in from the south near sunrise Monday.
24 hours later ...Tuesday morning---the low is STILL to our south. With more clouds/rain.
Another 24 hours later on Wednesday morning, the low is to our northeast, but the deformation zone (back side of the low) will likely get hung up somewhere in our area. That could extend rain through Wednesday night for some of us. Likely western sections.
By Thursday, if timing of all of above holds, we will be clear of the TX low pressure...and still east of the next cold front. So Thursday would be the driest, clearest day based on this.
Friday---the cold front moves in. Timing right now says Friday morning...but we have seen how well model timing has been for us--so expected adjusts on this. There will not be a ton of rain with this one thanks to the previous low pressure draining out the atmosphere. But a few showers will be possible.
Next weekend will be yet another tough call as the GFS/EURO both want to stall out this front. But where? GFS right now is aiming for TN. This should for some sunshine to push in from the north with that chilly high pressure---but southern areas---may be close to that front that stalled---may some rain for you. But that is way ahead in time yet. Lots could change.
Overall, the indicies are lining up for several cold fronts in October that likely could keep us below average through the middle of the month.
AO- starts to go negative (cold indicator)
NAO- stays negative to near neutral (cold indicator...some blocking)
PNA- tries to trend neutral. This is a warm/cold indicator...but likely more on the positive side in time.
Pretty active weather pattern for sure..for what should be the quietest time of the year.