Weather Blog

1st Week of October Looking Active

 

Nice weekend take shape ONCE we get rid of these stratus clouds.  We should see them break up more and more as we feel the drier air filter in.  Painfully slow process to get low level moisture out of the Ohio River Valley.

Unfortunately, this break looks brief.

Our next weathermaker already showing up to our southwest.  It was forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico for a day or two by the models--but instead--it plans to take I-20 across the southeast US.  This means it will arrive here faster.

In fact, the breaks of sunshine we pick up later today and first part of Sunday, will get replaced with high clouds from the TX low by tomorrow afternoon.

The rain should start to push in from the south near sunrise Monday.

24 hours later ...Tuesday morning---the low is STILL to our south.  With more clouds/rain.

Another 24 hours later on Wednesday morning, the low is to our northeast, but the deformation zone (back side of the low) will likely get hung up somewhere in our area.  That could extend rain through Wednesday night for some of us.  Likely western sections.

By Thursday, if timing of all of above holds, we will be clear of the TX low pressure...and still east of the next cold front. So Thursday would be the driest, clearest day based on this.

Friday---the cold front moves in.  Timing right now says Friday morning...but we have seen how well model timing has been for us--so expected adjusts on this.  There will not be a ton of rain with this one thanks to the previous low pressure draining out the atmosphere.  But a few showers will be possible.

Next weekend will be yet another tough call as the GFS/EURO both want to stall out this front.  But where?  GFS right now is aiming for TN.  This should for some sunshine to push in from the north with that chilly high pressure---but southern areas---may be close to that front that stalled---may some rain for you.  But that is way ahead in time yet.  Lots could change.

Overall, the indicies are lining up for several cold fronts in October that likely could keep us below average through the middle of the month.

AO- starts to go negative (cold indicator)

NAO- stays negative to near neutral (cold indicator...some blocking)

PNA- tries to trend neutral.  This is a warm/cold indicator...but likely more on the positive side in time.

Pretty active weather pattern for sure..for what should be the quietest time of the year.

 

Update on this Afternoon

 

I know seeing the clouds/rain is frustrating, but this was expected for southern KY today.  The clouds/fog however were more widespread across the north---along with some drizzle/brief showers.

The good news is---improvement is taking shape.

The NAM (which nailed today's rain) has the rain sliding to the south/east by 2pm

By 8:00, most areas start to dry out.

The RUC has the clouds breaking up first across IN this afternoon

And the clouds continue to break up across central KY this evening.

Overall---not a bad evening taking shape.

Quieter Days Ahead- but then...

A gloomier---but quieter day for the region.  Areas that see some sunshine today---could see more storms develop later on.  However, the front responsible for this action lately--is sagging closer and closer to TN.  The rain chances will follow that front.  We are still a good 15-20 hours of it being out of our viewing area---north to south.  So it will be a slow process but at least Friday looks to be the start of some decent days around here.

The storms last night become close at times to severe limits.  Some had us on the edge with rotation/hail cores---but nevertheless, YOUR reports on the ground via social media helped us in determining the data on the radar vs the ground. So big thank you for that. 

The rain was impressive.  Here are the amounts of rain since this front first arrived on Tuesday:

The weekend will be influenced by an upper level low that will move backwards from the NE into the Ohio Valley.  It will help allow for a north wind in the area---a dry/cooler wind.

By next week, we will see the south wind return.  That means a decent warm-up moves back into the region. (colder air to the north)

With that will come a price---moisture.  There are signs, esp from the GFS, that there will be a low that will move up from the south starting Wednesday with showers/storms increasing then.

The problem in the longer term remains the period of Oct 7-12.  The models still do not know how to handle a series of low pressures moving across Canada during this time.  GFS continues to trend colder. You can see the start of the colder air dropping by the end of the first weekend of Oct.  Even hints at snowflakes for the Midwest... NOT here.

EURO sees the cold air..but wants to drop it more toward the Rockies rather than Ohio Valley.  Such a move would mean a sizable warmup for us.

So the two long term models are far from agreement.  I still think the re-curving typhoon theory may prevail in this one---and the GFS solution ends up verifying.  The lack of blocking however does add to the idea of the EURO --but even that may be incorrect.  The latest EURO comes in at 4pm today.

Nevertheless, after the 7th of October---we could see an active weather pattern once again for our area.  Something to watch carefully in future model runs as it is STILL September---plenty of time to let the models play their games.

 

Just a Few More Storms

TIMING OF THE RAIN AND STORMS:

NOW-11am:  40% chance

11am-1pm:  50% chance

1pm-3pm:  60% chance

3pm-5pm:  50% chance

5pm-7pm:  30% chance

7pm-12am:  20% chance

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Best chance of thunder and lightning will be from 12pm-4pm; however storms are possible at any time today.  The good news is that there is only a very small chance of lightning and thunder after 9pm tonight, so hopefully we'll get a good, quiet night's sleep.  Even though lightning is always dangerous, we don't expect severe weather today.

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The showers and storms will bring us some additional rain, but not as much as yesterday or the day before.  Yesterday we received over an inch of rain.  Tuesday we received over half an inch of rain in Louisville.  Here's the QPF (estimated rain totals for today).

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The rain from the past two days will certainly help out with our drought situation.  Here's the latest drought statistics for Kentucky and Indiana...

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Severe Threat UPDATE- Fall Pattern UPDATE

 

Before I get into the longer term---I did want to touch base on this afternoon's threat.

Latest outlook from SPC--  just about all of us in the SLIGHT RISK

Clouds have been thinning out over the region.  We are at 78 with dewpoints in the 60s.  It does feel humid out. So the moisture is now in place.  Just need the trigger.

CAPES are forecast to jump to the 2500/3000 range in the next couple of hours.  This band of higher capes lines up well with the SPC outlook as well.

Shear is there...but not overly strong over us right now.  There is a pocket riding along the front with a shortwave that will move over that prime time of CAPES posted above.  Timing looks to be later this afternoon.

The HRRR model develops the storms near 3/4pm just to our west.

Then by 5pm..brings the line into central/northern KY.

So far, it appears that may be a tad too fast given the current radar scope.  However, these storms should develop rapidly and move to the east pretty fast as well.

Damaging winds will be the main threat along with the very heavy rain/lightning.  hail and tornado threats are low.

Another impulse is slated for Thursday morning (what is it with mornings lately?!?)  And perhaps another later Thursday afternoon before FINALLY the winds shift to the north and we dry it out for the weekend.  That "switch" should take place during the day on Friday.  The sooner the better when it comes to the games that night.

LONGER TERM:
Next week looks like a moderate warming trend. Nothing too off the charts...close to normal.

It is the first weekend of October that the models are really struggling with.  Some runs have us cold....some have us in the 80s.  And they have been back and forth on this idea for a week now.  So confidence in the longer term is low.

The problem---the signals..especially over Canada.

AO:  showing positive and negative trends for that weekend

NAO--  trending neutral or positive

PNA-  negative..trending positive.

 

AO/NAO support a warmer idea.  PNA ...more dip over the eastern USA===colder.

Here is the kicker however.

There is a curving typhoon in the western Pacific.

 

If you remember, a curving typhoon usually means a trough, or cooler pattern, over the eastern USA in about a week to 10 days.  This would line up with the first weekend of October.

So there is support for both patterns---but I would lean toward the colder solution right now...if I had to take a stab at it.

We shall see.  Still WAY early.

As far as the rest of Autumn/Winter...

El Nino and blocking.  2 major factors (but not the only ones) that we will be battling with.

El Nino is showing signs of fading.  Already.  Notice in the bottom part of the chart below---that is the eastern section of the Pacific near Central America---how it has been dropping off.

That could lead to a neutral winter.  Which means chaos with mother nature and computer models.

I plan to get my Twix soon....but not just yet.

No changes to my previous FALL FORECAST which I posted a few weeks back. Here is a portion of that post:

 

Best shot of cool snaps:  Late Sept/October

Best shot of a warm period:  November

Return of colder:  December

Will we see snow this fall?  Considering the average first measurable snow is in mid November---yes that is certainly possible :)  Will we see a Halloween snow like 1993?  Or will we see a 'season changer" front that will bring snow Thanksgiving night like in 2010?  I don't know that.  No one does.  That will be the fun in tracking over the coming months.
I am not a fan of looking at repeating specific years, but I am of repeating decades.  The oceans are key in our weather patterns.  They have cooled/warmed on earth for a VERY long time :) 

The Thunder Rolls

Thunderstorms are moving through WAVE Country this morning.  Some have been severe briefly with strong winds (possible hail).  Even though the storms right at this moment are not severe, the lightning with these storms is very intense!  We do have a risk of severe storms... especially for tonight.  Our main threats are:  damaging winds and large hail.

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From the NWS Louisville facebook page showing the progression of the storms this morning:

WARM UP COMING - SO IS THE RAIN

 

Cold weather returned again this morning with lows dipping into the 30s. A strong area of high pressure allowed the sky to clear and temperatures to drop like a rock. Kentucky wasn't the only one dealing with the early chill (this weather is more typical of mid October) Indiana had a fair share of cold temps, too.

Even colder temperatures were recorded in Central and Northern Indiana. While cool overnight lows will become more common we'll shy away from the freezing temperatures at least for a few days.

A warm front will push through Kentuckiana tomorrow. This will allow our temps to warm into the mid to upper 70s in addition to bringing us showers/storms across the area. The morning commute may be wet tomorrow...especially for those located along or West of I-65 in the pre dawn hours tomorrow. The scattered rain, isolated storms, will push Eastward by tomorrow afternoon. While wet weather is likely tomorrow it won't be a complete wash out...there will be dry time...however, I'd definitely grab the umbrella before you head out the door tomorrow.

Any storms that develop will produce heavy rain, potential for gusty winds, and heavy rain. As the warm front pushes through the area a trailing cold front will work through by Wednesday. This front will stall across the area. So what does that mean for Kentuckiana? It means a daily chance for scattered showers/storms this week. Again, not a wash out ANY day...but you'll have to dodge the wet weather. As the cold front diminished by the end of the week cooler air will develop for the weekend. Stay tuned to WAVE 3 news for the latest.

Sunglasses Today... Umbrellas Tomorrow

We had a frost advisory this morning, but now our temperatures are heating up quickly under the sunshine.  A cold front is approaching WAVE Country and could bring us some rain for tomorrow and Wednesday.  We have a continued chance of rain through Saturday morning with the potential for some decent rain totals.  Here's a look at the 5 day rain total:

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We are not expecting severe weather from the storms tomorrow or Wednesday; however, lightning and a few heavy downpours are possible.

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The rain we receive this week will continue to help out with our improving drought situation across Indiana and Kentucky.

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Ragweed has been quite high lately, but the cool mornings yesterday and today have brought the pollen count down a bit... for now.

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Air quality is GOOD!