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It has been interesting to follow the models on the big storm next week...EURO had it first. Then GFS caught on. Then EURO went one way..GFS another---now EURO is trending toward GFS. It is like when your best friend takes your twix away from you and runs and you chase them down. But I digress.
The storm is likely next week...and as I have mentioned---- I think New Jersey is the main point of landfall. The storm will be huge so it will affect MILLIONS of people...but the north/east side of the storm will be the most dangerous with the waves crashing ashore and flooding rains. I think NYC and Long Island will be where many reporters will be set up for their famous live shots on the beach.
The latest EURO and GFS look similar: (click for larger view)
GFS EURO
How strong the low becomes is still in question---but the risk for it to rival the 1938 Long Island Express Hurricane on Sept 21, 1938.
It was a CAT 5...that weakened to a CAT 3 at landfall. Nearly $310 million in damage (in 2012's economy..that would be about 4.2 billion). Nearly 800 dead. Pressure dipped to 938 mb. (next week's storm is forecast to range from near 930 to 950mb on the models)
Hopefully with our media/technology...the public is well informed of the dangers of such a storm and we can prevent a repeat. However, damage estimates may be simlar.
The low is not forecast to drift as far west as previous model runs. I still am holding onto the flurry chance..esp north and east. Nothing is sure thing yet---and it is still pre-mature to say it WON'T drift west---if very well could. But by far, the storm will be impacting the NE part of the country..only minor effects for us.
It is worth mentioning BEYOND this storm---the pattern looks quite active. November could end up be a very busy month in forecasting.
BOTS!!!
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