EVACUATION alerts and SHELTER IN PLACE warnings still in effect as of this post.
The EVACUATION ALERT (smaller circle) is of most concern..and concentrated near the derailment and near West Point KY. The larger circle is the SHELTER IN PLACE WARNING. No evacuations for that zone--but you should keep outside air from coming into your home in that zone. We hope an ALL CLEAR comes soon. We will let you know.
Weather wise--- FREEZE warning tonight. If we drop into the mid 20s as expected, this will be the last Frost/Freeze alert for the area until spring.
We have another system moving into over the weekend.
The NAO is still negative, but trending neutral.
PNA is mostly negative.
I think the PNA being negative with a negative NAO means the low will make it east of us before that blocking kicks in. This may be well off shore. GFS is struggling with this....EURO likes the off-shore idea. I agree.
This may brush the NE states with cold weather/rain/snow by Election day..but only a brief cool down for us.
Pretty fast moving system overall.
A warm-up is showing up for the longer term as a significant storm develops over the Plains. This one has the risk for severe storms and heavy snow. So we will have to watch it in future model runs for the track of this baby. This would be Nov 9-12 range.
I had hoped to issue my winter thoughts today---but Sandy/Breaking news with the derailment have prompted me to wait a couple of days. Stay tuned.